Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014/15

[chietanen]

Maybe you mentioned earlier, my apologies if you did, how long did it take you to get to the top?

 

Yesterday it took me about 2 hours to get to the fire tower, but that was with snowshoes, a deep snow pack, and stopping to take a lot of pictures. I usually haul it up to the top of Mount Beacon in about 20 minutes, and then another 20 minutes or so to get to the fire tower on South Beacon. This is from the parking lot on 9D and Howland Ave in Beacon. Have you done the hike before? If not, the hike to the top of Mount Beacon is about 0.8 miles but you gain close to 1000 feet of elevation across several switchbacks, so it's short but not necessarily an easy hike. The views from there are nice, but I usually just keep going on the red trail another half mile or so which takes you to the base of South Beacon. That's a very easy stretch. Then from there it's about a quarter mile of scrambling to get to the fire tower. The views from there are much nicer IMO, plus less influence from the "city folk". Yesterday I could see the Manhattan skyline. The whole Fishkill ridge is just a great place to hike. If I have a lot of time, I usually head over to the yellow (Wilkinson) trail, which you can find if you hang a right at the bottom of the rocky part of South Beacon, and hit some more of the ridges there, or I head down to the reservoir and take in the views there. Once a year I do a thru hike where I start at Breakneck Ridge and then end up on a trailhead on Sunnyside Rd in Fishkill. It ends up being 12 miles, give or take depending on where I hit along the way, so it's a great day hike. You need a ride or a car on both ends though.

 

Sorry for the verbose answer. It's just one of my favorite places to explore locally so I could really carry on and on about it!

[IrishRob17]

Yesterday it took me about 2 hours to get to the fire tower, but that was with snowshoes, a deep snow pack, and stopping to take a lot of pictures. I usually haul it up to the top of Mount Beacon in about 20 minutes, and then another 20 minutes or so to get to the fire tower on South Beacon. This is from the parking lot on 9D and Howland Ave in Beacon. Have you done the hike before? If not, the hike to the top of Mount Beacon is about 0.8 miles but you gain close to 1000 feet of elevation across several switchbacks, so it's short but not necessarily an easy hike. The views from there are nice, but I usually just keep going on the red trail another half mile or so which takes you to the base of South Beacon. That's a very easy stretch. Then from there it's about a quarter mile of scrambling to get to the fire tower. The views from there are much nicer IMO, plus less influence from the "city folk". Yesterday I could see the Manhattan skyline. The whole Fishkill ridge is just a great place to hike. If I have a lot of time, I usually head over to the yellow (Wilkinson) trail, which you can find if you hang a right at the bottom of the rocky part of South Beacon, and hit some more of the ridges there, or I head down to the reservoir and take in the views there. Once a year I do a thru hike where I start at Breakneck Ridge and then end up on a trailhead on Sunnyside Rd in Fishkill. It ends up being 12 miles, give or take depending on where I hit along the way, so it's a great day hike. You need a ride or a car on both ends though.

Sorry for the verbose answer. It's just one of my favorite places to explore locally so I could really carry on and on about it!

No, I've never done it before but want to give it a shot one day. Thanks for all the info!

Down to 9 degrees here.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I don't even know who you are anymore..

Just let us know when you're reporting from work, LOL

Ill be sure to let you know where "here" is lmao

[denvillenj]

13.5 inches on the ground. Nice winter stretch once again for NNJ area.

[Juliancolton]

There are lots of places in the eastern Hudson Highlands that I'd love to check out soon. It always amazes me how different the views are from different summits just miles apart.

 

3.4F

[Juliancolton]

GFS has a nice 2-4" this weekend.

 

Of rain. Boo, hiss. An utter deluge, as depicted. The most "fun" aspect of such a scenario would be the crashing temps: low 40s to low teens in six hours on Monday morning. I'm not sure if our pack could absorb 2.5" or 3" of added liquid, but up to an inch followed by a flash freeze would lock in something like 8-10" of snow until the solstice.

 

Theoretically, if you have to rain, you'd want to get a bit above freezing for minimal damage. The latent heat of fusion imparted by cold rain that freezes within the pack is more significant than the energy required to cool the same volume of warm rain that seeps to the ground before freezing. I'm not really sure when you can apply that in practice, but as I understand, you don't necessarily want to stay as close to 32F as possible, contrary to what intuition tells you. Obviously that goes out the window after it gets warm enough...

 

Side note, my low for the 17th was -1.8F at 11:59, and as I'm still below zero, that now makes my streak six days long. Yay!

[HeinzGuy]

GFS has a nice 2-4" this weekend.

 

Of rain. Boo, hiss. An utter deluge, as depicted. The most "fun" aspect of such a scenario would be the crashing temps: low 40s to low teens in six hours on Monday morning. I'm not sure if our pack could absorb 2.5" or 3" of added liquid, but up to an inch followed by a flash freeze would lock in something like 8-10" of snow until the solstice.

 

Theoretically, if you have to rain, you'd want to get a bit above freezing for minimal damage. The latent heat of fusion imparted by cold rain that freezes within the pack is more significant than the heat required to cool the same volume of warm rain that seeps to the ground before freezing. I'm not really sure when you can apply that in practice, but as I understand, you don't necessarily want to stay as close to 32F as possible, contrary to what intuition tells you. Obviously that goes out the window after it gets warm enough...

 

Side note, my low for the 17th was -1.8F at 11:59, and as I'm still below zero, that now makes my streak six days long. Yay!

I'm getting a little worried after seeing the 0z GFS...low I think in early March 2011 wiped out near 10" of snow all at one go while Binghamton got near a foot. It doesn't take a low that far west to do serious damage to a pack late in the season.

 

Edit: Think it was March 10 2011. Was a bomb cutter with a secondary which redeveloped right over the Hudson Valley. I doubt the GFS is right though, its been the warmest run for the past week on that storm.

[IrishRob17]

Heading out now, sitting at -12

[chietanen]

Heading out now, sitting at -12

Nice! -6 for a low here. The subzero mins are really starting to pile up.

[IrishRob17]

Nice! -6 for a low here. The subzero mins are really starting to pile up.

I'll look at my numbers again some time over the next couple of days and see where I stand in comparison to last year.  I saw a comment over in the NE side that radiational cooling is bootleg cold and CAA is the only legit cold. I happen to disagree and wonder if only people who do not radiate well feel that way.  I happen to think that both are impressive, CAA covers wide areas with cold which can be exciting but maybe because I dig micro climates I appreciate places that can radiate well too.  What do you guys think?  

[Juliancolton]

Heading out now, sitting at -12

Sweet. "Only" -9.6F here.

 

Regarding the "fake" cold thing, I think it makes you more manly if you eschew radiational cooling and high-ratio snow and such. For me, any cold/snow is good cold/snow, but I do actually prefer radiating to pure airmass-driven cold. Some combination of the two, like we saw on Sunday night/Monday morning, is ideal. Strong CAA right up until the late evening to provide the low- and mid-level support, and then the winds shut off and the sun is greeted seven hours later by negative-some-ridiculous-number cold.

[gravitylover]

Bet my answer would have been different 20 years ago     I'm gonna vote for radiate.  It's great for wintry appeal to have significant cold but it's also nice when it warms up during the day.  I also appreciate not spending so much to heat the house because of the warm days.  A bit of pervasive cold is necessary to lock things up for the winter though and it's good for the seasonal kick in the pants when you get a stretch of uncomfortable temps.  As I start to see March 1st coming into view I'm over the real cold stuff.  One last solid shot the next few days will do it for me.  This morning was a a perfect rendition of a good cooling night, it was 13* when I left the house and started dropping right away as I went down the hill and bottomed out at 2 along the Croton Reservoir 500 feet below.  I too appreciate microclimates more than most.

 

Unfortunately the potential rain this weekend will keep me from having the kind of depth to the snowpack to bring this to an A winter I think.  I took a walk around my property and up the hill from the house and didn't find any depths over ~16" with an average of 12".  There is a three to four inch difference favoring easterly aspects over flat or westerly areas.  I think this shows that winds were more E/NE this winter rather than the last two years where my readings were better on N and NW aspects.  

[Juliancolton]

Unfortunately the potential rain this weekend will keep me from having the kind of depth to the snowpack to bring this to an A winter I think.  I took a walk around my property and up the hill from the house and didn't find any depths over ~16" with an average of 12".  There is a three to four inch difference favoring easterly aspects over flat or westerly areas.  I think this shows that winds were more E/NE this winter rather than the last two years where my readings were better on N and NW aspects.  

I genuinely think it's possible that many of us are yet to see our best depths for the winter. The southern stream has been calving a new storm every two days, and shows no signs of stopping for a while. We might start losing our -25F temp anomalies before long, but it's hard for me to believe that we miss out on what will likely be another three or four storm threats by the first week of March.

 

[snywx]

Heading out now, sitting at -12

 

Nice!! 

 

Dropped to -9 here..

[HeinzGuy]

 

I genuinely think it's possible that many of us are yet to see our best depths for the winter. The southern stream has been calving a new storm every two days, and shows no signs of stopping for a while. We might start losing our -25F temp anomalies before long, but it's hard for me to believe that we miss out on what will likely be another three or four storm threats by the first week of March.

Yeah I think so too, especially with March incoming...warmer temperatures/SSTS I'd think would in theory help provide more energy for storms to amp up and move closer to the coast. Might help buck the current trend of storms tracking near or east of the benchmark and fringing or missing the area. Had a low -6 here this morning, very cold month so far.

[chietanen]

I'm not picky about the cold, as long as we get it. When I look back at this winter and see x number of mornings below zero, that is what is going to define it for me, not whether like 8 nights were from radiating and 4 nights were from CAA. But that's just me. Growing up in Buffalo, I did not have a lot of subzero mornings due to the warming effects of Lake Erie and my location in the city, so I really enjoy the cold.

 

As far as grading this winter, I agree it's certainly not worthy of an A for most of our area. I was thinking right now I'd go solid B+/A-. The persistence of cold has been very impressive, and we've had a nice snow pack for going on several weeks now. But, we haven't really had the major storm(s) that would put it into the A category. The largest snowfall I've had here is 10", and I think some in the region haven't even seen a double digit snowfall. I do agree with Julian though in that I don't think we've seen the last of the snow. I think we see at least one major snowfall before winter is done. 

 

Looking at some of the models this morning, it seems like we might be in for a nice 1-2" snowfall tonight into tomorrow. As far as the weekend event goes, I think the final solution is far from being realized, though I'm not anticipating anything significant in the snow department as of now. Lots of threats in the pipeline though, so a brief rainer doesn't really bother me too much at this point in the winter.

[IsentropicLift]

Could someone give me an idea as to how deep that snowpack is up in West Milford? Thanks, trying to get a better idea regarding potential river flooding downstream.

[IrishRob17]

Could someone give me an idea as to how deep that snowpack is up in West Milford? Thanks, trying to get a better idea regarding potential river flooding downstream.

http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow_depth_im

[xram]

Got down to -4.8 this morning. Coldest night of the year for me.

[White Gorilla]

I'm not picky about the cold, as long as we get it. When I look back at this winter and see x number of mornings below zero, that is what is going to define it for me, not whether like 8 nights were from radiating and 4 nights were from CAA. But that's just me. Growing up in Buffalo, I did not have a lot of subzero mornings due to the warming effects of Lake Erie and my location in the city, so I really enjoy the cold.

 

As far as grading this winter, I agree it's certainly not worthy of an A for most of our area. I was thinking right now I'd go solid B+/A-. The persistence of cold has been very impressive, and we've had a nice snow pack for going on several weeks now. But, we haven't really had the major storm(s) that would put it into the A category. The largest snowfall I've had here is 10", and I think some in the region haven't even seen a double digit snowfall. I do agree with Julian though in that I don't think we've seen the last of the snow. I think we see at least one major snowfall before winter is done. 

 

Looking at some of the models this morning, it seems like we might be in for a nice 1-2" snowfall tonight into tomorrow. As far as the weekend event goes, I think the final solution is far from being realized, though I'm not anticipating anything significant in the snow department as of now. Lots of threats in the pipeline though, so a brief rainer doesn't really bother me too much at this point in the winter.

I agree. I can almost guarantee we see a double digit snowfall before it's all over.

[Juliancolton]

I agree. I can almost guarantee we see a double digit snowfall before it's all over.

Yeah, I mean... we've been sandwiched between unprecedented LES to our west and unprecedented rapid-fire blizzards to our east. We can't stay in the snow hole forever, right? lol

[White Gorilla]

Yeah, I mean... we've been sandwiched between unprecedented LES to our west and unprecedented rapid-fire blizzards to our east. We can't stay in the snow hole forever, right? lol

Yup.....at least by the law of averages. We have had too many cases where we are too far east, north, west, or south. It's time now we be in a situation where we are just enough north, south, west, or east.

[IrishRob17]

The analog that keeps getting thrown around in the threads, 1/17/94, I remember that one around here.  I was living in New Windsor at the time and we got a front end dump of about 6" (I didn't keep detailed records back then  ) then it switched over to plain rain with temps spiking in the upper 30's.  There was a good amount of street flooding due to blocked storm drains, then the cold blast came in that evening causing a quick, total flash freeze.  There were a couple of things that made matters worse, it was during a time when there were budget cuts to NYSDOT and their plowing of roads was cut back.  In addition, it was Martin Luther King Day and I believe between the holiday and budget cuts there was the general thinking by municipalities that they would do a better clean up on Tuesday, well, the damage was done at that point.  I remember driving to work in the afternoon with rain falling and slush and snow on the streets and then driving home around 10pm that night it was back to snow and the slush was freezing in place on the roads.  By late that night anything that had not been cleared just became solid ice.  This was a time before the deicing chemicals became popular and it was way too cold for road salt to work for the rest of that week.  Many schools were closed for the entire week due to the icy rutted roads.  It was quite a mess.  It was also the day of the big Northridge earthquake in CA.  

[ENYsnow]

Looks like we're gonna get rained on Sunday.. only hope at this point is for a more strung out, weaker wave that doesn't really amplify much. We miss right then we miss left, next time has to be somewhere in the middle.

[chietanen]

Looks like we're gonna get rained on Sunday.. only hope at this point is for a more strung out, weaker wave that doesn't really amplify much. We miss right then we miss left, next time has to be somewhere in the middle.

The snow along the roads is getting really disgusting and the salt is even worse, some rain is just what we need.

[chietanen]

Regarding the weekend, this is what the pros in Albany have to say:

TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE

SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIG QUESTION

THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS 12Z GEFS PLUMES SUGGEST A SNOW TO RAIN

TRANSITION FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH A

FEW MEMBERS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX.

HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL WARM INTRUSION MAY BE INHIBITED...AS A

FAIRLY STRONG 1028 HPA AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC AND

STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET

MAY ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...ALLOWING COLD AIR NEAR

THE SURFACE TO REMAIN TRAPPED FOR A POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF

WINTRY MIX WITH MAINLY SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS. AN ALL-RAIN

SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE

QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCH DOMINATES AND

HELPS THRUST STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. SINCE THE

STORM IS STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT...WILL JUST MENTION RAIN/SNOW FOR

THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR LATE SUNDAY MORNING

INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

[ENYsnow]

Regarding the weekend, this is what the pros in Albany have to say:

TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE

SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIG QUESTION

THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS 12Z GEFS PLUMES SUGGEST A SNOW TO RAIN

TRANSITION FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH A

FEW MEMBERS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX.

HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL WARM INTRUSION MAY BE INHIBITED...AS A

FAIRLY STRONG 1028 HPA AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC AND

STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET

MAY ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...ALLOWING COLD AIR NEAR

THE SURFACE TO REMAIN TRAPPED FOR A POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD OF

WINTRY MIX WITH MAINLY SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS. AN ALL-RAIN

SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE

QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCH DOMINATES AND

HELPS THRUST STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. SINCE THE

STORM IS STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT...WILL JUST MENTION RAIN/SNOW FOR

THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR LATE SUNDAY MORNING

INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

Good discussion from ALY, weaker and more strung out waves have been dominating over the past couple weeks so it wouldn't be a big surprise if this follows suit. 18z GFS actually went in that direction with a more sheared out vort max across the central U.S. and much weaker WAA out ahead of it.

[IrishRob17]

The pros? But we have so many in the NYC threads, many of whom aren't even red taggers. I see no reason to listen to what the NWS has to say...

[Juliancolton]

Good discussion from ALY, weaker and more strung out waves have been dominating over the past couple weeks so it wouldn't be a big surprise if this follows suit. 18z GFS actually went in that direction with a more sheared out vort max across the central U.S. and much weaker WAA out ahead of it.

Yeah, the 18z GFS would actually be pretty tolerable, with maybe 3-5" of snow before some pretty meager rain, then a nice wintry treat with that anafrontal stuff as the low pulls away.

[White Gorilla]

Have a feeling we get 2-4 snow Sunday turning to a brief sleet/ light rain mix, tapering to drizzle before ending. This followed by snow showers later in the day with colder air. Sounds reasonable?