snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sloatsburg is nothing, not even a flurry right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Amazing that this event has started and the signals are still so mixed. The 12z GFS would give Poughkeepsie easily 8"+ of snow while some of the other models, namely the NAM and RGEM, are closer to 1-3" at best. In any event, steady light snow is falling here with a temp of 18. Started accumulating right away. I checked my weather station a little bit ago and it registered a wind chill last night of -25. That's the coldest it has ever recorded. Although it should be exceeded tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Amazing that this event has started and the signals are still so mixed. The 12z GFS would give Poughkeepsie easily 8"+ of snow while some of the other models, namely the NAM and RGEM, are closer to 1-3" at best. In any event, steady light snow is falling here with a temp of 18. Started accumulating right away. I checked my weather station a little bit ago and it registered a wind chill last night of -25. That's the coldest it has ever recorded. Although it should be exceeded tomorrow night. Seems to be the trend this winter, complete and udder model failures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Seems to be the trend this winter, complete and udder model failures Per our agreement, im not allowed to mock the cow gfs you speak of. LOL j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Seems to be the trend this winter, complete and udder model failuresI can't ever remember this much model chaos as a storm was hours away from moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I can't ever remember this much model chaos as a storm was hours away from moving in Not since the last storm.....every storm this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not since the last storm.....every storm this winter Feels that way, doesn't it? Check out the omega on the 12z GFS for early tomorrow morning. Definitely pulling for the GFS to score a coup in this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Meanwhile the Euro says enjoy your flurries, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Meanwhile the Euro says enjoy your flurries, yikes.I just saw it, it's scary lol and it has the inverted trough totally missing us. Snow showers at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Meanwhile the Euro says enjoy your flurries, yikes. Unreal, right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Unreal, right?!Did you see the latest RAP? It matches up to the euro which is scary. Anyone know how the HRRR is looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 jeez I'm actually seeing moderate snow out there right now. Rob are you getting any of this band? Yeah, nice snowfall out there, maybe .3 so far, I haven't actually measured. And yeah, I can radiate really well, I think I got 3 degrees lower than KMGJ this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Did you see the latest RAP? It matches up to the euro which is scary. Anyone know how the HRRR is looking? WeatherBell provides it for free. You just have to make sure you refresh when going back to reference it. http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Did you see the latest RAP? It matches up to the euro which is scary. Anyone know how the HRRR is looking? Here's a look at the 17z RAP at 3 am. Shows our area nicely in the inverted trough. Still no real consensus as to where it will ultimately setup, but I like our chances as much as anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Feels that way, doesn't it? Check out the omega on the 12z GFS for early tomorrow morning. Definitely pulling for the GFS to score a coup in this one! omeg.png The 12z GFS is spitting out 11.2" for SWF, big jump from the 5.8" at the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 19 w/ lgt snow 1" of new on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Its seems pretty likely there will be some sort of inverted trough extending back to NW toward our general area. Placement, though, is still shifting around and until it actual develops as depicted on radar I think will just be grasping at straws with each new hourly run of theHRRR and RAP. And then there is the question of just how intense and lasting it may be. Those that end up in it will probably cash in with 3-6" and perhaps an inch or two more while most others see 2-3". Of course LI is another story due to proximity to the coastal. Regardless if you get 2" or 6" it will be a very wintry scene tomorrow watching it be blown around by 15-30mph winds gusting 40+ with temps in in the 5 to 10 degree range! Enjoy it for what it is. Snow accumulations are just one aspect of this and for most not the biggest aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Per our agreement, im not allowed to mock the cow gfs you speak of. LOL j/kHaha I literally Lol'd I like to see how everyone's WWA's line up, anyone in an advisory for more than 8" per NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Seems like the general idea is that it sets up somewhere between central nj and southwestern Connecticut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here's a look at the 17z RAP at 3 am. Shows our area nicely in the inverted trough. Still no real consensus as to where it will ultimately setup, but I like our chances as much as anyone. rap_ref_neng_16.png Definitely gonna be a nowcast event, we'll have to keep an eye on the spc meso page to track the low-level convergence zone since the best returns are occurring along the warm side of the low-level fgen maximum. As the trough swings negative later the convergence zone should take on a more meridional orientation and eventually tilt NW to SE... hopefully over someone in the HV hah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Based on the latest RAP and HRRR, it looks like we are finally getting a consensus of where the inverted trough will setup, and it doesn't look promising for here. The euro may not have been that crazy after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Based on the latest RAP and HRRR, it looks like we are finally getting a consensus of where the inverted trough will setup, and it doesn't look promising for here. The euro may not have been that crazy after all You and I seem to be consistently looking at different model products, so could you please tell me which areas your HRRR graphics show under the banding? Mine continue to show a decent swath of snow pivoting over Rockland and Orange counties early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 You and I seem to be consistently looking at different model products, so could you please tell me which areas your HRRR graphics show under the banding? Mine continue to show a decent swath of snow pivoting over Rockland and Orange counties early tomorrow morning. Lol.. I have yet to see the guy post anything positive since he recently joined. Makes white gorilla look like the eternal optimist lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 On my way down to the city.. Hopefully the "show" holds off till after 03z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lol.. I have yet to see the guy post anything positive since he recently joined. Makes white gorilla look like the eternal optimist lol LMAO! Just a stellar winter afternoon out there, temp of 18 with 1" down, how many more to go... Perfectly calm right not too, just a perfect afternoon that winter is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Light/moderate snows continue up here 1.2" on ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks great out there! Temps in the teens w/ steady snow falling and 1"+ otg already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gorgeous winter day here. 23.6/17. 1/2" otg. Low this morning was -1.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the WAA snows are performing about as expected or even a little better, good to see. Something like .6" here @ 23/14F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 nice winter day. new snow - 1.5 inches been snowing lightly most of the day. temp - 19F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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