IrishRob17 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like my low for the 13th will go down as -9.6F. Leveling off now as clouds move in.-4 first it for me on the 13th and -10 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If you have a few moments, take a look at the mt holly nws forecast discussion. There are using words I have never seen used prior regarding the cold blast and wind coming. Basically don't go outside or you risk death. If you decide to hunker down at home make sure you have heat, plan to lose power. Sorta nervous lol. I was just reading Uptons forecast for tomorrow night, winds 15-25 and gusts to 40 with a low of -7...umm what? That's stupid cold around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 -7 for a low, up to -1 now. I was looking at the HRRR and it's underwhelming as of now, several hours of weak WAA snow followed by a narrow squall line. Plenty of time to change, but keeping my expectations low for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 -7 for a low, up to -1 now. I was looking at the HRRR and it's underwhelming as of now, several hours of weak WAA snow followed by a narrow squall line. Plenty of time to change, but keeping my expectations low for this one. Yeah, this one's a yawner as far as snow, but wind and cold will be nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 -7 for a low, up to -1 now. I was looking at the HRRR and it's underwhelming as of now, several hours of weak WAA snow followed by a narrow squall line. Plenty of time to change, but keeping my expectations low for this one. The hrrr looks awful and imo it's the most accurate short range model. The rap looks awful too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, this one's a yawner as far as snow, but wind and cold will be nothing to sneeze at.No so sure about that, it's been flurring here this morning, I think we are in for a real dumping. I can't back up the dumping part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 -4 first it for me on the 13th and -10 this morning. Wow, nice. -11.7 for me this morning, so an impressive low for the 14th as well. Looks like there's a chance of a subzero low every day through the end of the week, at least up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wow, most of the 00z GEFS members are well west and bombs for Wednesday.. lets keep it right here. Looks great. I'm also a fan of that Euro operational run (and the EPS to an extent) for the 23rd...slow moving low with a sprawling high to the north. No shortage of chances, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Pretty consistent signals that the Norlun will set up south of here, but looks good for you guys in Orange, Rockland, Putnam, and northern Westchester. Albany's AFD mentioned a tropopause fold that may cut down on accumulations in eastern NY. Anyone have a quick description of what that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks great. I'm also a fan of that Euro operational run (and the EPS to an extent) for the 23rd...slow moving low with a sprawling high to the north. No shortage of chances, anyway. What are projected teleconnections? AO and NAO need to get to at least closer to neutral I think for a storm to slow down around these parts. These models love to tease us with long range fantasies, only to verify for New England for the most part. What is going to change that storms do not bullseye New England every freakin storm? It's like a broken record. You are right that at least we have chances, but I am keeping all expectations to a bare minimum given the established pattern. It is fascinating to watch from a met standpoint for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Pretty consistent signals that the Norlun will set up south of here, but looks good for you guys in Orange, Rockland, Putnam, and northern Westchester. Albany's AFD mentioned a tropopause fold that may cut down on accumulations in eastern NY. Anyone have a quick description of what that is? Only expecting an inch for Poughkeepsie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Pretty consistent signals that the Norlun will set up south of here, but looks good for you guys in Orange, Rockland, Putnam, and northern Westchester. Albany's AFD mentioned a tropopause fold that may cut down on accumulations in eastern NY. Anyone have a quick description of what that is? Try this: http://www.goes-r.gov/products/opt2-trop-folding.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Pretty consistent signals that the Norlun will set up south of here, but looks good for you guys in Orange, Rockland, Putnam, and northern Westchester. Albany's AFD mentioned a tropopause fold that may cut down on accumulations in eastern NY. Anyone have a quick description of what that is? hopefully somone is this thread can ride the norlun train later today. I have set my expecations at 3 inches for the event in my area. Concerned about the wind the most. Fear my roof blows off tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks great. I'm also a fan of that Euro operational run (and the EPS to an extent) for the 23rd...slow moving low with a sprawling high to the north. No shortage of chances, anyway.Yes, I don't think that next Tuesday is our last shot, still more chances I do believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Pretty consistent signals that the Norlun will set up south of here, but looks good for you guys in Orange, Rockland, Putnam, and northern Westchester. Albany's AFD mentioned a tropopause fold that may cut down on accumulations in eastern NY. Anyone have a quick description of what that is? I think ENYsnow will be able to explain it in more detail, but basically, a tropopause fold is associated with a lowering of the tropopause by which stratospheric (very dry and stable) air can be injected into the troposphere. I know tropopause folds are believed to promote rapid intensification of extratropical storms, and that their effects on convective precipitation are disputed, but I've never heard of a forecaster operationally citing one as a rationale for decreasing statiform precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What are projected teleconnections? AO and NAO need to get to at least closer to neutral I think for a storm to slow down around these parts. These models love to tease us with long range fantasies, only to verify for New England for the most part. What is going to change that storms do not bullseye New England every freakin storm? It's like a broken record. You are right that at least we have chances, but I am keeping all expectations to a bare minimum given the established pattern. It is fascinating to watch from a met standpoint for sure. Well, in theory, climo dictates that suppression soon becomes less likely and storms start getting warmer for the coast. As I mentioned earlier, though, that didn't work out so well for us last season. As much as I'd love to cash in on a blockbuster storm or two, I'd be bummed if eastern New England's luck ran out just before seasonal records were broken. If it takes one more NYC metro fringe job to put them over the top, I wouldn't be too upset. Watching an all-time season unfold 150 miles away is more interesting to me than scraping the bottom of the barrel for a reasonably above-average season imby, but I digress! There are hints of a more neutral NAO for late next weekend—probably not enough to make much difference, but the Euro showed how we can amplify and slow down a system without big NAO blocking: namely, raised heights over the western Atlantic just before the storm, some transient troughiness near 50/50, and a big surface high getting in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks guys! Thought it was weird as I've never seen it brought up during a winter storm before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks guys! Thought it was weird as I've never seen it brought up during a winter storm before. Yeah, that was a pretty jargony discussion this morning... almost read like a Star Trek script at times. Looks like they made it a bit more digestible for the latest update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Let's hope the HRRR isn't correct, norluns not too impressive on short terms, drops about 1-3" for most the area, western sections see a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Heh, wow. Lollis to 18" in the Litchfield hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Let's hope the HRRR isn't correct, norluns not too impressive on short terms, drops about 1-3" for most the area, western sections see a bit moreYea, the hrrr is real ugly, more like 1-2 ugh... The rap is no bargain either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Heh, wow. Lollis to 18" in the Litchfield hills? This would put many In 8-12" from eastern orange points east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yea, the hrrr is real ugly, more like 1-2 ugh... The rap is no bargain either I wouldn't say norluns are their strong points tho.. Radar is the model choice now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 -4 first it for me on the 13th and -10 this morning. Damn you dropped to -10?? Wow your areas radiates beautifully! -5.2 for a low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 16.8f w/ Lgt Snow faling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 14z HRRR looks fine to me for the convergence band at the end of its run... what am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 14z HRRR looks fine to me for the convergence band at the end of its run... what am I missing? The RAP did as well last time I looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I only got to 3 this morning. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 jeez I'm actually seeing moderate snow out there right now. Rob are you getting any of this band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 jeez I'm actually seeing moderate snow out there right now. Rob are you getting any of this band? I'm In between light and moderate currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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