snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Upton is saying that I have about an 80% chance at exceeding 2". A mere 2" can create some decent drifts out by me and with the winds that are expected it will be fun to see what happens. Uptons "Max potential" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Oof. Up to 8", wind and sooper cold I think I'm gonna grab some extra firewood on the way home. Probably stop for an extra bottle of rum and maybe a few more mixers to make mimosas and Bloody Marias on Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 4-6" up here, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bad news: the long-range GFS now takes us into the first hours of Morch. On the bright side, I dropped to -4.2F this morning, now slowly climbing through the positive single digits. The long range may take us there but Old Man Winter isn't ready to pack his bags, that's for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The long range may take us there but Old Man Winter isn't ready to pack his bags, that's for sure...In 2 weeks the clock really starts ticking for us, then the "sun angle and length of day" arguments will actually be valid. Once past March 1st climo quickly starts to work against our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 In 2 weeks the clock really starts ticking for us, then the "sun angle and length of day" arguments will actually be valid. Once past March 1st climo quickly starts to work against our favor I am not talking just snow, which it appears you may be. The long range is cold, with snow chances. It has to break eventually but I don't see it in the long range yet at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 In 2 weeks the clock really starts ticking for us, then the "sun angle and length of day" arguments will actually be valid. Once past March 1st climo quickly starts to work against our favorI've never bought into the sun angle mantra. It's 15F here today but roofs were dripping and driveways were thawing, but nobody is worried about the sun angle now. Further, many of us have seen accumulating snows into May. Last March we missed out on a couple monster offshore cyclones, enduring stretches of cold and dry, despite the usual sun angle/climo/seasonal trend platitudes. Sun angle is the least of my worries until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 March always has the potential to be an amazing snow month. This whole sun angle nonsense drives me crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We've had nonstop cold and snow chances for weeks, and that pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Can we stop worrying about 2' storms or how much snow Boston is getting and just enjoy this stretch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS has us in the icebox through the next 15 days.. Patterns don't just break down overnight too. I can see this lasting well into late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am not talking just snow, which it appears you may be. The long range is cold, with snow chances. It has to break eventually but I don't see it in the long range yet at all...I don't see any hints of the cold pattern breakdown into March either. i think the inevitable breakdown does happen in March but what part of March? It's anyone's guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 We've had nonstop cold and snow chances for weeks, and that pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Can we stop worrying about 2' storms or how much snow Boston is getting and just enjoy this stretch? Its amazing how much boston envy they have down there on the coast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I've never bought into the sun angle mantra. It's 15F here today but roofs were dripping and driveways were thawing, but nobody is worried about the sun angle now. Further, many of us have seen accumulating snows into May. Last March we missed out on a couple monster offshore cyclones, enduring stretches of cold and dry, despite the usual sun angle/climo/seasonal trend platitudes. Sun angle is the least of my worries until April. Agreed, and we've seen big storms in both October and April. March always has the potential to be an amazing snow month. This whole sun angle nonsense drives me crazy! And I'm wondering if this could be one of those Marchs. We've had nonstop cold and snow chances for weeks, and that pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future. Can we stop worrying about 2' storms or how much snow Boston is getting and just enjoy this stretch? Its common to miss whats right in front of you because one is looking else where, sadly that will never change for some people. I'm with you, one hell of a winter here even if I still haven't had a double digit snowfall yet. GFS has us in the icebox through the next 15 days.. Patterns don't just break down overnight too. I can see this lasting well into late March And this was my point, I know others see it too. Like I said earlier, sometimes the pattern changes thanks to a big storm, we'll see if that happens this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GFS for MGJ @ 192-384 No signs of letting up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Its amazing how much boston envy they have down there on the coast lol. I bet at least a few of them would sell their soul for a 60 degree driving rainstorm in Boston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I bet at least a few of them would sell their soul for a 60 degree driving rainstorm in Boston! I saw someone post the other day that many would give up their first born to get the snow that Boston has...I'm gonna say no on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I bet at least a few of them would sell their soul for a 60 degree driving rainstorm in Boston!That's just f-ed up lol. In all seriousness though I've seen first hand how utterly devastating severe flooding is. It's actually sad to see people's property destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 15z SREF Snowfall Mean for POU just increased again to 7.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 15z SREF Snowfall Mean for POU just increased again to 7.2" With a range of 1" to 19". Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z NAM has western orange county & sussex county below 0 by 21z on Sunday. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z NAM has western orange county & sussex county below 0 by 21z on Sunday. Brutal That would just be stupid cold in these parts, just plain stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 by 0z Sunday it has it around 0 near NYC while its -10 @ MSV... Stupid cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I can't believe Upton is going for 4-6 inches for Rockland and Orange tomorrow into Sunday. Where is the model support for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Cold and wind are the main story this weekend, just as we have been discussing all week. Sunday will be a fun day to be a weather enthusiast. Whatever snow we get is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I can't believe Upton is going for 4-6 inches for Rockland and Orange tomorrow into Sunday. Where is the model support for this? Winds won't be as severe here especially during saturday, Temps throughout will be ice cold and .2 - .3 of qpf should yield 3-5".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I can't believe Upton is going for 4-6 inches for Rockland and Orange tomorrow into Sunday. Where is the model support for this? Off the top of my head, both the NAM and GFS spit out .30 for KMGJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Cold and wind are the main story this weekend, just as we have been discussing all week. Sunday will be a fun day to be a weather enthusiast. Whatever snow we get is gravy. Agree 100% Winds won't be as severe here especially during saturday, Temps throughout will be ice cold and .2 - .3 of qpf should yield 3-5".. Upton cancelled the High Wind Watch, a Wind Advisory will be plenty cold enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Off the top of my head, both the NAM and GFS spit out .30 for KMGJ.I'm guessing they think the inverted trough is going to push over the area, but as others have said, it's near impossible to predict where the band will be at this time, plus, not one model has shown the inverted trough over our area. A couple have had it over the mid-hudson valley. I think they overdid it imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm guessing they think the inverted trough is going to push over the area, but as others have said, it's near impossible to predict where the band will be at this time, plus, not one model has shown the inverted trough over our area. A couple have had it over the mid-hudson valley. I think they overdid it imo Every single model has an extension of precip over the HV. Yes some areas won't receive as much as others but going with 3-6" for the region is def a smart move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm guessing they think the inverted trough is going to push over the area, but as others have said, it's near impossible to predict where the band will be at this time, plus, not one model has shown the inverted trough over our area. A couple have had it over the mid-hudson valley. I think they overdid it imo With the wind we are going to have a hard time measuring it anyway, I say just enjoy whatever falls and blows around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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