snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Take it for what it's worth, but I pulled this from the Bufkit Warehouse, it's the 00z GFS for POU. Pretty impressive ratios, 9.9" of snow on 0.42" LE. 150214/1800Z 42 19010KT 24.2F SNOW 25:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 25:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 150214/2100Z 45 18007KT 25.4F SNOW 24:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 24:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 150215/0000Z 48 16004KT 25.4F SNOW 19:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 22:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 150215/0300Z 51 VRB02KT 20.6F SNOW 14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 21:1| 4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0 150215/0600Z 54 32010KT 12.5F SNOW 29:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 23:1| 8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0 150215/0900Z 57 33009KT 11.9F SNOW 24:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 23:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0 150215/1200Z 60 33016KT 15.0F SNOW 28:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 24:1| 9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0 This weekends event looks to be concentrated E of the Hudson. 1-3", 2-4" looks to be on tap for most of us. I can see some areas in Dutchess, Putnam & in W CT picking up 6" or so. Quite a few models have the INV situated from POU SE toward E LI. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 BTW.. 4.7f out there right now. brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 3.8f currently and very windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This weekends event looks to be concentrated E of the Hudson. 1-3", 2-4" looks to be on tap for most of us. I can see some areas in Dutchess, Putnam & in W CT picking up 6" or so. Quite a few models have the INV situated from POU SE toward E LI. Time will tell I think it's going to be a more general 2-5" deal for almost all of us. Maybe a couple lucky spots at 6/7". Coastal ME gets absolutely destroyed. The Euro has like 90 mph wind gusts around Acadia NP at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think it's going to be a more general 2-5" deal for almost all of us. Maybe a couple lucky spots at 6/7". Coastal ME gets absolutely destroyed. The Euro has like 90 mph wind gusts around Acadia NP at one point. This might be our only one too, euro is a total miss for next week now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This might be our only one too, euro is a total miss for next week now Yeah it's disheartening that the GFS and CMC were also misses well southeast. Then again the shortwave(s) involved are still out in the Pacific so there's a chance it comes back once they're better sampled.. at least the long wave pattern supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So around here in New Paltz, should be expecting 3-6"? How are ratios? I know winds are gonna be rough to cut down on ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Currently at 2 below zero. Sunday looks to be frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This weekend "event" looks like a total dud for Rockland and Orange. Maybe 1-2 inches if we are lucky. Based on the 0z and 6z runs, 2 inches may actually be pushing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This weekend "event" looks like a total dud for Rockland and Orange. Maybe 1-2 inches if we are lucky. Based on the 0z and 6z runs, 2 inches may actually be pushing it I think 1 to 4 inches is possible. Mt holly nws seems bullish, but they have busted high on snow totals on most events this year. I do give them credit though. They did note in an AFD earlier in the week they have been challenged this year with forecasting snow. Just enough snow to pad the snow totals for the year. Temp has dropped to negative 3 here the last 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Upton issued a High Wind Warch for Sunday with temps dropping into the single digits in the afternoon. Just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Upton issued a High Wind Warch for Sunday with temps dropping into the single digits in the afternoon. Just brutal. The wind and frigid temperatures will be a bigger story around here than a significant snowfall. AMOUT BTW, the 6z NAM continues to show the inverted trough over our area. Probably going to come down to a nowcast tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The wind and frigid temperatures will be a bigger story around here than a significant snowfall. AMOUT BTW, the 6z NAM continues to show the inverted trough over our area. Probably going to come down to a nowcast tomorrow night. nam_total_precip_neng_29.png Deep deep winter for sure AWT. As SNYWX weather stated, you guys on the east side look to be in a better spot for snow. I'd just like at least a couple inches and then see how the wind blows that around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Check out the shortwave dropping onto land just west of Hudson Bay this morning. Too bad that ridge wasn't a little stronger for us. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-95.48,45.56,719 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Why do I get the feeling that tomorrow's and next week's snow events are going to be real duds? Indeed, the big story will be cold and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Why do I get the feeling that tomorrow's and next week's snow events are going to be real duds? Indeed, the big story will be cold and wind. Because you are looking for a two foot snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bangor, ME has 45" on the ground this morning, expecting 18-24", a temp around 9 on Sunday and gusts up to 45 mph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Because you are looking for a two foot snowfall True, but I would be happy with even 4-6 for tomorrow. Somehow I get the feeling it will be a 1-2 inch deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bad news: the long-range GFS now takes us into the first hours of Morch. On the bright side, I dropped to -4.2F this morning, now slowly climbing through the positive single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 True, but I would be happy with even 4-6 for tomorrow. Somehow I get the feeling it will be a 1-2 inch deal. Hush... these storms sense our fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bad news: the long-range GFS now takes us into the first hours of Morch. On the bright side, I dropped to -4.2F this morning, now slowly climbing through the positive single digits. 2 was my low this morning, will it get beat before midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2 was my low this morning, will it get beat before midnight? The HRRR gives a resounding "maybe" For White Gorilla: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/566243855578988545 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not liking where the models are setting up that norlun trough tomorrow. Rockland and Orange aren't in it for one and two, wherever an inverted trough sets up, you always have major confluence on both sides of the band, which is where that would put us. I just have a bad feeling with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The HRRR gives a resounding "maybe" For White Gorilla: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/566243855578988545 Part of me would be surprised if the East Coast didn't finish with a bang. Patterns often start and/or end with a bang, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Bad news: the long-range GFS now takes us into the first hours of Morch. On the bright side, I dropped to -4.2F this morning, now slowly climbing through the positive single digits. No Morch! Say it ain't so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GFS is less than .10 for our area, RGEM got drier for us and the NAM wasn't impressive. I was afraid this would happen. If the GFS is right, this is just an arctic cold front passage with snow showers for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 1.6f for a low this morning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GFS is less than .10 for our area, RGEM got drier for us and the NAM wasn't impressive. I was afraid this would happen. If the GFS is right, this is just an arctic cold front passage with snow showers for us This is a highly anomalous setup. I'd let it play out before writing it off. Certainly we aren't getting a widespread 6"+, but I think some surprises are in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Upton is saying that I have about an 80% chance at exceeding 2". A mere 2" can create some decent drifts out by me and with the winds that are expected it will be fun to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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