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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014/15


snywx

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Looks very much like the NAM to me with that setup, though a little more bullish. 

 

12z GFS has 3.8" of snow at Poughkeepsie using the Cobb method (0.23" LE). 

 

On to the Euro...

Euro digs at H5 similarly to the GGEM, closed low swings east-southeast across central PA and beneath LI. The GGEM had slightly better downstream ridging so the shortwave went negative tilt quicker and QG forcing/inverted trough stuff was more robust across the HV. Euro does look like it has the inverted trough in the same general location just doesn't explode the precip as much as the GGEM. Wherever the low-level convergence zone sets up beneath the upper trough axis is gonna see crazy snowfall ratios with this thing though.. if it can remain stationary for a couple hours 4-8" seems pretty reasonable. What a crazy set up. 

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Definitely. Radar echoes keep regenerating strongly right over Dutchess County... is that some kind of surface convergence along the river valley?

 

Visibility under 1000 feet, rapidly accumulating on all surfaces now

 

I hate to sound like I'm 'bragging' with such a localized event, but this is epic. Hope the guys in Poughkeepsie are getting in on this stuff. Last post for now!

 

OSzq9mp.jpg

That is wild! Been watching that band.

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Definitely. Radar echoes keep regenerating strongly right over Dutchess County... is that some kind of surface convergence along the river valley?

 

Visibility under 1000 feet, rapidly accumulating on all surfaces now

 

It's gotta be, that's awesome. Can kinda see it on the HRRR 10 m winds

 

hrrr_ncep_wind10m_KALB_4.png

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Just flurrying now, but wow, that was fun. 2.8" of new snow on (get this) 0.09" of liquid, for 31:1 ratios. I took two core samples to verify that. This stuff sits in the hand like cotton... it hardly even feels cold when you grab a fistful.

Nice, that could be a preview of what sat night/sunday will be like.

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Just flurrying now, but wow, that was fun. 2.8" of new snow on (get this) 0.09" of liquid, for 31:1 ratios. I took two core samples to verify that. This stuff sits in the hand like cotton... it hardly even feels cold when you grab a fistful.

 

Very cool! I had a very busy day at work so I couldn't hop on, we had a nice snow squall here for about 15 minutes, but it only amounted to a dusting or so.

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What's everyone thinking regarding Saturday? My thoughts are in the 2-4" range as of now. The cold looks legit too.

I have a feeling there could be a few surprises in the lower hudson valley with this setup. At this point I'd say 3-6" especially where the main inverted trough squalls/banding sets up. 

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I have a feeling there could be a few surprises in the lower hudson valley with this setup. At this point I'd say 3-6" especially where the main inverted trough squalls/banding sets up. 

 

I'd take it. Assuming the inverted trough sets up, which is not a given but it's been pretty consistent on the models, seems like a consensus is developing for somewhere around 0.25-0.4" for most of the region. That should get us in your 3-6" range or close to it. One thing is for sure, Sunday looks like a brutal day, snow winding down in the morning, 40 mph wind gusts and temperatures falling through the single numbers.

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Take it for what it's worth, but I pulled this from the Bufkit Warehouse, it's the 00z GFS for POU. Pretty impressive ratios, 9.9" of snow on 0.42" LE. 

 

150214/1800Z 42 19010KT 24.2F SNOW 25:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 25:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
150214/2100Z 45 18007KT 25.4F SNOW 24:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 24:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
150215/0000Z 48 16004KT 25.4F SNOW 19:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 22:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150215/0300Z 51 VRB02KT 20.6F SNOW 14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 21:1| 4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
150215/0600Z 54 32010KT 12.5F SNOW 29:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 23:1| 8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0
150215/0900Z 57 33009KT 11.9F SNOW 24:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 23:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0
150215/1200Z 60 33016KT 15.0F SNOW 28:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 24:1| 9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0

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