chietanen Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What is with the sudden influx of new posters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What is with the sudden influx of new posters? We need a good torch/cutter to clear out the crowds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We need a good torch/cutter to clear out the crowds...April will take care of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 You know its been an interesting winter when you have a poster from the eastern tip of the north fork active on snow threads lol.. Normally I would say thats a terrible sign for us but this winter has spread the love to most north of 40N. South of 40N is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z GGEM @ 66 & 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z GGEM @ 66 & 67 Looks very much like the NAM to me with that setup, though a little more bullish. 12z GFS has 3.8" of snow at Poughkeepsie using the Cobb method (0.23" LE). On to the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks very much like the NAM to me with that setup, though a little more bullish. 12z GFS has 3.8" of snow at Poughkeepsie using the Cobb method (0.23" LE). On to the Euro... Euro digs at H5 similarly to the GGEM, closed low swings east-southeast across central PA and beneath LI. The GGEM had slightly better downstream ridging so the shortwave went negative tilt quicker and QG forcing/inverted trough stuff was more robust across the HV. Euro does look like it has the inverted trough in the same general location just doesn't explode the precip as much as the GGEM. Wherever the low-level convergence zone sets up beneath the upper trough axis is gonna see crazy snowfall ratios with this thing though.. if it can remain stationary for a couple hours 4-8" seems pretty reasonable. What a crazy set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow, it's suddenly pouring snow. Didn't expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I've had a few snow showers pass through but nothing heavy over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow, it's suddenly pouring snow. Didn't expect that. Heaviest snow I've seen all winter atm. Windswept with temps dropping a degree every couple minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Heaviest snow I've seen all winter atm. Windswept with temps dropping a degree every couple minutes. Gotta love arctic cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gotta love arctic cold fronts. Definitely. Radar echoes keep regenerating strongly right over Dutchess County... is that some kind of surface convergence along the river valley? Visibility under 1000 feet, rapidly accumulating on all surfaces now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I hate to sound like I'm 'bragging' with such a localized event, but this is epic. Hope the guys in Poughkeepsie are getting in on this stuff. Last post for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Definitely. Radar echoes keep regenerating strongly right over Dutchess County... is that some kind of surface convergence along the river valley? Visibility under 1000 feet, rapidly accumulating on all surfaces now I hate to sound like I'm 'bragging' with such a localized event, but this is epic. Hope the guys in Poughkeepsie are getting in on this stuff. Last post for now! That is wild! Been watching that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyR Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Snowing pretty good on Raymond Ave in Po. Very lake effect-y look and feel to this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Enjoy it guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Definitely. Radar echoes keep regenerating strongly right over Dutchess County... is that some kind of surface convergence along the river valley? Visibility under 1000 feet, rapidly accumulating on all surfaces now It's gotta be, that's awesome. Can kinda see it on the HRRR 10 m winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 In Beacin at work, but great to see the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Despite the fact that it's the 18z NAM at 60 hours, it depicts the narrow inverted trough feature nicely. If it ends up anything like this depiction, we could be looking at a fun nowcast/mesoscale band situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just flurrying now, but wow, that was fun. 2.8" of new snow on (get this) 0.09" of liquid, for 31:1 ratios. I took two core samples to verify that. This stuff sits in the hand like cotton... it hardly even feels cold when you grab a fistful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just flurrying now, but wow, that was fun. 2.8" of new snow on (get this) 0.09" of liquid, for 31:1 ratios. I took two core samples to verify that. This stuff sits in the hand like cotton... it hardly even feels cold when you grab a fistful.That's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just flurrying now, but wow, that was fun. 2.8" of new snow on (get this) 0.09" of liquid, for 31:1 ratios. I took two core samples to verify that. This stuff sits in the hand like cotton... it hardly even feels cold when you grab a fistful. Nice, that could be a preview of what sat night/sunday will be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just flurrying now, but wow, that was fun. 2.8" of new snow on (get this) 0.09" of liquid, for 31:1 ratios. I took two core samples to verify that. This stuff sits in the hand like cotton... it hardly even feels cold when you grab a fistful. Very cool! I had a very busy day at work so I couldn't hop on, we had a nice snow squall here for about 15 minutes, but it only amounted to a dusting or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What's everyone thinking regarding Saturday? My thoughts are in the 2-4" range as of now. The cold looks legit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What's everyone thinking regarding Saturday? My thoughts are in the 2-4" range as of now. The cold looks legit too.That's where I'm at too, and I meep looking towards next week. I need to slow down and take in the snow and cold coming this weekend first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What's everyone thinking regarding Saturday? My thoughts are in the 2-4" range as of now. The cold looks legit too. I have a feeling there could be a few surprises in the lower hudson valley with this setup. At this point I'd say 3-6" especially where the main inverted trough squalls/banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Temp down to 4 f. Next fews days look frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nice, that could be a preview of what sat night/sunday will be like. From your mouth to gods ears! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I have a feeling there could be a few surprises in the lower hudson valley with this setup. At this point I'd say 3-6" especially where the main inverted trough squalls/banding sets up. I'd take it. Assuming the inverted trough sets up, which is not a given but it's been pretty consistent on the models, seems like a consensus is developing for somewhere around 0.25-0.4" for most of the region. That should get us in your 3-6" range or close to it. One thing is for sure, Sunday looks like a brutal day, snow winding down in the morning, 40 mph wind gusts and temperatures falling through the single numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Take it for what it's worth, but I pulled this from the Bufkit Warehouse, it's the 00z GFS for POU. Pretty impressive ratios, 9.9" of snow on 0.42" LE. 150214/1800Z 42 19010KT 24.2F SNOW 25:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 25:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0150214/2100Z 45 18007KT 25.4F SNOW 24:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 24:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0150215/0000Z 48 16004KT 25.4F SNOW 19:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 22:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150215/0300Z 51 VRB02KT 20.6F SNOW 14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 21:1| 4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0150215/0600Z 54 32010KT 12.5F SNOW 29:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 23:1| 8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0150215/0900Z 57 33009KT 11.9F SNOW 24:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 23:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0150215/1200Z 60 33016KT 15.0F SNOW 28:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 24:1| 9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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