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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014/15


snywx

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Albany honking about the cold that we've been mentioning over the past several days

 

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY BRUTALLY COLD AIR AND
DANGEROUSLY LOW AND LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS THAT WILL SET UP
THE COLDEST AIRMASS IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS.

 

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VALLEY AREAS. WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN
PLACE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL BE TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COASTAL STORM TAKES SHAPE WELL
OFFSHORE...HIGHS SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO NOT EVEN MAKE IT ABOVE
ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS
AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS
TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN SOME TIME...WITH LOWS 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL SLIGHTLY
IMPROVE...BUT WILL BE BELOW ZERO AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

IF THE TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ALREADY COLD ENOUGH...DANGEROUSLY LOW
AND LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 BELOW
ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS 50 BELOW ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND WIDESPREAD 30 BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WITH THE
REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SUB-990 HPA COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST
AND A 1040 HPA HIGH TO THE WEST.

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I love it when the AFDs talk dirty!

Hopefully we can squeeze some fluff out of that inverted trough thing over the weekend. It hasn't snowed in well over a day and I'm feeling withdrawal symptoms...

Well there certainly won't be a lack of instability with that cold pool aloft hah, maybe there will be some surprises. After the next two clipper/redevelopers it looks like there's a shot at some type of overrunning event early next week.. nice to have such an active pattern.

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I am really looking forward to the weekend. We may not get a ton of snow, but the cold may be the worst in 20 years. Combine that with some fluffy snow and high winds, and it will look like the arctic around here. I'm probably in the minority, but I'd prefer a day or two of extreme record breaking cold to 10" of snow every time.

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Can we have both? LOL, I'm with you, exciting times for winter weather enthusiasts.

Don't get me wrong, I'd take both in a heartbeat! Given a choice of the two, I'd go record breaking cold. Let's hope for both. I certainly think we're in the game for a decent snowfall still. I wouldn't write it off like most seem to be.

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Don't get me wrong, I'd take both in a heartbeat! Given a choice of the two, I'd go record breaking cold. Let's hope for both. I certainly think we're in the game for a decent snowfall still. I wouldn't write it off like most seem to be.

I just need a few fresh inches to get the blowing and drifting going again out by me.
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I really don't think the weekend storm is a lost cause. Doubtful we jackpot but if we can nab a few inches with temps in the teens and 40 kt gusts, that'd be just fine with me.

 

That was my thought all along. I think a few inches is totally doable, as are the winds. Add in the falling temperatures and it should be a fun meteorological day. 

 

Btw, it's probably alone right now among the guidance, but the NAM is putting out LE of 0.2"+ for parts of the region tomorrow. The Cobb method site I use is generating over 3" of snow for KPOU on 20:1 ratios (or higher). Maybe we'll get lucky and score a couple bonus inches.

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Btw, it's probably alone right now among the guidance, but the NAM is putting out LE of 0.2"+ for parts of the region tomorrow. The Cobb method site I use is generating over 3" of snow for KPOU on 20:1 ratios (or higher). Maybe we'll get lucky and score a couple bonus inches.

 

Yeah, this is a pretty nice look for capitalizing on any moisture. Lift, saturation, and the DGZ are all pretty shallow, but they intersect nicely on the NAM. Unfortunately, you're right... I can't find any other model that gets more than a trace or so of precip into the area. Maybe we'll get lucky.

 

GH130kN.png

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Yeah, this is a pretty nice look for capitalizing on any moisture. Lift, saturation, and the DGZ are all pretty shallow, but they intersect nicely on the NAM. Unfortunately, you're right... I can't find any other model that gets more than a trace or so of precip into the area. Maybe we'll get lucky.

 

GH130kN.png

If I'm reading that right the Omega is stronger for that than Saturday nights "storm" on the NAM. Would be easy to overlook that with all the focus on the weekend right now.

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If I'm reading that right the Omega is stronger for that than Saturday nights "storm" on the NAM. Would be easy to overlook that with all the focus on the weekend right now.

There's a brief but hefty burst of UVVs tomorrow, but ascent associated with the weekend storm is much deeper and more prolonged, so peak omega values themselves don't tell the whole story.

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What do you think our chances in this region to get a 2 foot snowstorm before winter ends given our pattern and what may lie ahead?

I'd say there still a chance and that's about all you can ask for. I remember the 09-10 winter missing out on all the big storms and then getting punched in the face at the end of Feb. This winter is a different setup but we've seen it produce big storms so we shall see.
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