ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gotta think that the low is going to track along the front which has now sagged South of NYC. I just don't see how in such a short time that fresh push of cold is going to be nudged very far northward from wherever it goes stationary (either central or S. Jersey) I've thought the same thing several times sitting in ALB with H85 temps starting around -5C only to get pinged on 3 hours later. It's definitely gonna be a nowcast event but a warm nose in the 850-700 mb layer is always tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 DT call for NYC area.. ( Looks good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Upton Max Potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I've thought the same thing several times sitting in ALB with H85 temps starting around -5C only to get pinged on 3 hours later. It's definitely gonna be a nowcast event but a warm nose in the 850-700 mb layer is always tricky. No, I get that. WAA almost always gets further North than modeled. But if you could have drawn a map and put a cold High where you wanted it to be at this time frame, it pretty much is there. The front is still sagging South, so the cold is not retreating, but pushing. If the High was heading across Maine now and the flow was turning East then South, I'd expect the worst regardless of the forecast. In this setup, during the coldest time of the year, odds would favor a bust to the colder side. I'm actually confident it turns out mostly snow North of a line from Mt Pocono to White Plains. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 DT call for NYC area.. ( Looks good) He changes his totals every model run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 DT call for NYC area.. ( Looks good)That's actually Joe Cioffi's map that DT posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 No, I get that. WAA almost always gets further North than modeled. But if you could have drawn a map and put a cold High where you wanted it to be at this time frame, it pretty much is there. The front is still sagging South, so the cold is not retreating, but pushing. If the High was heading across Maine now and the flow was turning East then South, I'd expect the worst regardless of the forecast. In this setup, during the coldest time of the year, odds would favor a bust to the colder side. I'm actually confident it turns out mostly snow North of a line from Mt Pocono to White Plains. We'll see I guess. Yeah definitely, the lower levels favor a bust on the colder side.. the mid-level centers are just progged so far north that it might not matter. If the confluent jet entrance region to the north was displaced 50-100 miles south this would probably be all snow from NYC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What a mess... People that were in WSW got bumped down to WWA and now they're back to a WSW. Wtf is the NWS doing?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z RAP snowfall looks pretty good through 12z tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z RAP snowfall looks pretty good through 12z tomorrow: Most are borderline 6-8 by 8am with plenty snow left to fall, I think were gonna do very well, like I said a few days ago, I like the normal snow house of Monroe/Middletown area in this event more than northern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What a mess... People that were in WSW got bumped down to WWA and now they're back to a WSW. Wtf is the NWS doing?!?!Who? Where? Upton with the South Shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 lol... Mike Siedel is live in Newburgh... Right in front of the Newburgh Nissan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 lol... Mike Siedel is live in Newburgh... Right in front of the Newburgh Nissan.Nice. Back in 2003 I believe it was he was reporting from the Ramada Inn in Newburgh, I actually drove over and met him briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 As much as I don't like the NAM, it makes sense with whats going on. It wants to redevelop the low in SE PA/ S NJ along or just South of where the sagging BD front winds up. The low is not going to cross the mountains and the redevelopment isn't going to be on the cold side of the E-W front. Don't know about timing or QPF accuracy, but I like how the NAM develops the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Who? Where? Upton with the South Shore? Mt holly for parts of jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Upton update their maps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Upton update their map.. Decrease totals for lower orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Now under 6-8 inches with up to .50" of ice...that would be a huge problem if correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Meanwhile, Albany just raised totals a bit for their southern areas. lol, hard to keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Meanwhile, Albany just raised totals a bit for their southern areas. lol, hard to keep up. It looked like Binghamton pushed their 10-14 area a bit to the south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 light snow has started. temp 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 light snow has started. temp 28F Wow, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow, nice! flurries at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z Rgem has 25-30mm of snow stretching from Port Jervis through Middletown up to New Paltz then across the river north of poughkeepsie. 30-40mm of snow confined to the Catskills. Overall its 8-12" for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z Rgem has 25-30mm of snow stretching from Port Jervis through Middletown up to New Paltz then across the river north of poughkeepsie. 30-40mm of snow confined to the Catskills. Overall its 8-12" for our region. When you say our region, are you getting into the "we" terminology. lol What is it printing out in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z Rgem has 25-30mm of snow stretching from Port Jervis through Middletown up to New Paltz then across the river north of poughkeepsie. 30-40mm of snow confined to the Catskills. Overall its 8-12" for our region. The first part of the storm you guys are gona rip closer to 12 to 1. There is a lot of forcing on the front and you are minus 12 at 850 Only the back do you decrease ur ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 flurries at the moment steady light snow falling now. Temp has dropped to 26F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 When you say our region, are you getting into the "we" terminology. lol What is it printing out in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 When you say our region, are you getting into the "we" terminology. lol What is it printing out in my area lol sorry... "we" as in the HV 20-25mm ( 8-10") in your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Flurries here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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