snywx Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 The GFS is painting a classic upslope effect for those on the W side of the Hudson while some get shadowed from the Taconics/Berks on the E side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 guys. good luck. 0 z gfs dropped the hammer into nw nj. I plan to ride out the storm near mt snow, vt. wife gave the okay. if we get another shft south, i may not leave. impressive that the 1 inch qpf shifted that much, calling dr ruth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 guys. good luck. 0 z gfs dropped the hammer into nw nj. I plan to ride out the storm near mt snow, vt. wife gave the okay. if we get another shft south, i may not leave. impressive that the 1 inch qpf shifted that much, calling dr ruth Nice, somewhere between mount snow and woodford, vt is gonna have 50"+ on the ground after this. I was thinking that woodford might be the jackpot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GFS has to be overdoing the orographic effects, the easterly flow isn't even that strong. It did the same thing last week and that didn't verify at all. It does seem like that is showing up on each of the models with this setup, though not as extreme as the GFS. Ryan (CT Rain) posted on twitter that he thought his location (Hartford area) could see a lower amount of snow. One thing in our favor vs western and southern areas is that we stay on the good side of the 850 temps, so I think there's little if any risk of mixing here. Always fun to watch these things play out. Then it's on to Thursday And then Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Nice, somewhere between mount snow and woodford, vt is gonna have 50"+ on the ground after this. I was thinking that woodford might be the jackpot for this one. Southern VT should do well. I was thinking, looking at that steady stream of moisture, the areas just SW of Albany should do really well, like around Greene and Schoharie counties. You'd think they would benefit from both upslope and lake enhancement, as this moisture is traveling over a few of the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It did the same thing last week and that didn't verify at all. It does seem like that is showing up on each of the models with this setup, though not as extreme as the GFS. Ryan (CT Rain) posted on twitter that he thought his location (Hartford area) could see a lower amount of snow. One thing in our favor vs western and southern areas is that we stay on the good side of the 850 temps, so I think there's little if any risk of mixing here. Always fun to watch these things play out. Then it's on to Thursday GFS is probably too pronounced but yeah all the models are picking up on some upslope enhancement/downslope drying. Man thursday could be real fun too if that trough digs just a little further west. What an epic stretch of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Nice, somewhere between mount snow and woodford, vt is gonna have 50"+ on the ground after this. I was thinking that woodford might be the jackpot for this one. dude. not one run has missed south vt. check out this though. my town looks to be be getting into the qpf. need 6 z to confirm. may need to get hungry locally 18 z 0 z mt holly is most likely busting ballz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Southern VT should do well. I was thinking, looking at that steady stream of moisture, the areas just SW of Albany should do really well, like around Greene and Schoharie counties. You'd think they would benefit from both upslope and lake enhancement, as this moisture is traveling over a few of the Great Lakes. Greene County is always a sweet spot.. I believe there is a town there called East Jewett. Man they always clean up. I believe in Feb 2010 they recorded 6-7' for the month alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 alright men, i snow chase by model run. still think mt snow is near ground zero. heavy buzz, going to bed. still love the inch qpf drag south locally tonight on the gfs. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 alright men, i snow chase by model run. still think mt snow is near ground zero. heavy buzz, going to bed. still love the inch qpf drag south locally tonight on the gfs. Best From Key West to Mount Snow. That's one hell of a day trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 alright men, i snow chase by model run. still think mt snow is near ground zero. heavy buzz, going to bed. still love the inch qpf drag south locally tonight on the gfs. Best Yeah it's looking closer and closer for you at home. I'd wait until the morning to see what's up but no doubt S. VT gets a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This is gonna be such a tenuous stratiform precip shield... I tend to believe the globals are overdoing QPF for our area. I think we're all agreed that the GFS's downsloping scenario is too drastic, but it is a concern IMO. Any sinking motion can be problematic when your broad-scale ascent is already weak and spotty. I think 5-6" would be my initial guess for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 snow cam shows snow falling now back home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This is gonna be such a tenuous stratiform precip shield... I tend to believe the globals are overdoing QPF for our area. I think we're all agreed that the GFS's downsloping scenario is too drastic, but it is a concern IMO. Any sinking motion can be problematic when your broad-scale ascent is already weak and spotty. I think 5-6" would be my initial guess for mby. I agree. I think 6" is a good call for us valley dwellers. I'll gladly take it over rain. I'm still more fascinated by the cold coming later in the week. Hopefully that signal holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 looks like some nice returns by POU.. models really have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 looks like some nice returns by POU.. models really have no clue. Nothing reaching the ground on this side.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Light snow here now. Returns look pretty good overhead, but only looks to last another half hour or so. 29 degrees. NAM had this too far north with no QPF at all at POU before 6z, hopefully that's a good sign for down the road. Nothing reaching the ground on this side.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 euro qpf looks pretty paltry. unless ratios are 20:1 everywhere this has a good chance of being a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 I also noticed the UK cut qpf as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Orange county was downgraded to advisory I'm still in a warning for 9-18" lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Rap has rain for everyone in Orange County South at the start... Ohhhhh boy gotta love these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Orange county was downgraded to advisory I'm still in a warning for 9-18" lmao I don't believe Orange County was ever under a Warning for this event, I think it was just a Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I don't believe Orange County was ever under a Warning for this event, I think it was just a Watch. That's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 alright men, i snow chase by model run. still think mt snow is near ground zero. heavy buzz, going to bed. still love the inch qpf drag south locally tonight on the gfs. Best Mt Snow is a good call, they are going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 That's rightI'm not surprised Upton went Advisory because of how the storm is stretched out over time, the Warning criteria will be hard to attain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm not surprised Upton went Advisory because of how the storm is stretched out over time, the Warning criteria will be hard to attain.The general public never understands this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The general public never understands this though. Oh don't get me wrong, I like the call... My dead honest opinion is that this will disappoint everyone on this forum, even us up here... GFS is the only model that shows .50"+ and most it's ensembles are split 50/50... Huge red flag imo... I'm expecting light snow with occasional bursts of moderate.. 3-6" acc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Oh don't get me wrong, I like the call... My dead honest opinion is that this will disappoint everyone on this forum, even us up here... GFS is the only model that shows .50"+ and most it's ensembles are split 50/50... Huge red flag imo... I'm expecting light snow with occasional bursts of moderate.. 3-6" accI agree, we are so close and yet so far on this one. Perhaps we'll be peasantly surprised but I'm not counting on that. We aren't done yet though, still more chances to track this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Even the light qpf should be enough to screw with tmrws commute. I have nowhere to be, screw it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Even the light qpf should be enough to screw with tmrws commute. I have nowhere to be, screw it. LolYeah, there will be issue for sure, just not the big dumping that won't be far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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