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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014/15


snywx

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  On 2/19/2015 at 7:58 PM, IrishRob17 said:

For those interested in the ice issues on the Hudson:

http://www.midhudsonnews.com/News/2015/February/19/stuck_tug-18FEb15.html

Just took a ride past the waterfront in Newburgh. Ice is from one side to the other. Just a small path in the channel that the Coast Guard cutters are breaking up. Below 0 temps for the next two nights will thicken it up even more.

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  On 2/19/2015 at 8:12 PM, hudsonvalley21 said:

Just took a ride past the waterfront in Newburgh. Ice is from one side to the other. Just a small path in the channel that the Coast Guard cutters are breaking up. Below 0 temps for the next two nights will thicken it up even more.

My grandfather says they used to take horse and buggy across the river for firewood etc, can't imagine lol

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  On 2/19/2015 at 7:29 PM, IrishRob17 said:

How big is your pack up there?

Average measurement is 17"..hoping we top 20" this weekend but not too confident, how about down your way? There's a signal on the EC/CMC for next tues/wed, would love to have a 12"+ event to finish out the month and break some records.

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  On 2/19/2015 at 9:06 PM, ENYsnow said:

Average measurement is 17"..hoping we top 20" this weekend but not too confident, how about down your way? There's a signal on the EC/CMC for next tues/wed, would love to have a 12"+ event to finish out the month and break some records.

Just about 16" throughout my property here

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  On 2/19/2015 at 9:06 PM, ENYsnow said:

Average measurement is 17"..hoping we top 20" this weekend but not too confident, how about down your way? There's a signal on the EC/CMC for next tues/wed, would love to have a 12"+ event to finish out the month and break some records.

13.5" at my stake now.
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  On 2/19/2015 at 9:54 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Lmao, sitting down at the helo pad at work by the river, just saw an eagle chilling on a ice block cruisin down the river, went to take a pic but he was pretty far away

Neat. It's great that the eagle population has rebounded so nicely. You can pretty much count on spotting a couple if you spend the day by the river.

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I haven't really had a chance to look at models today, but the Euro for next Wednesday caught my eye for obvious reasons. The OP GFS looks pretty flat (at least at 18z), but I like the look of the ensembles. Looks somewhat similar to the OP Euro at the same point. The axis of heaviest precipitation is just to the east like the Euro, and there are definitely some members that are flat, but it looks like a legit threat. And I think the 24th/25th has been pretty consistent as a signal for several runs now. Many days out but something to keep an eye on.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_24.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_eus_25.png

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Yeah, I'm feeling pretty good about this weekend, and somehow, snow is always just a bit more enjoyable when you have another threat on the horizon. :) Deep winter marches on. 5.6" gets me to 60", so that's my goal for Sunday. I'd guess we get a little less than that but the potential is there, to be sure.

 

5.4F and dropping slooooowly. Gonna be a nail-biter to see if the streak continues...

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  On 2/20/2015 at 2:39 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Yea allsnows wrong as hell it's no where near 4-8". It's a 2-5" period

They only like the guys that tell them what they wanna hear as usual

Let them enjoy their pipe dreams, they'll get smacked in the face with reality sooner or later...maybe.
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  On 2/20/2015 at 2:39 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Yea allsnows wrong as hell it's not near 4-8". It's a 2-5" period

They only like the guys that tell them what they wanna hear as usual

Ratios should easily be 150:1. Some weather agency (whose existence is quite dubious, and whose text products are not written in English) alluded to that very fact.

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  On 2/20/2015 at 2:35 AM, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, I'm feeling pretty good about this weekend, and somehow, snow is always just a bit more enjoyable when you have another threat on the horizon. :) Deep winter marches on. 5.6" gets me to 60", so that's my goal for Sunday. I'd guess we get a little less than that but the potential is there, to be sure.

5.4F and dropping slooooowly. Gonna be a nail-biter to see if the streak continues...

As for the streak for me its either going to stop at 6 days or jump to 8 days in a row. Even if it stops at 6 it will be 7 of 8 days or even 8 of 9 days with below 0 lows, rather impressive regardless.
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  On 2/20/2015 at 2:45 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

They LOVE the tropicaltidbits snow maps...I find that system to be a bigger weenie map than any wxbell map, idc what algorithm they supposedly use.. No way northern Jersey is 6+" on that nam run... Ratios are between 8-10:1

I doubt that any snow map algorithm accounts for this, but when you get a near-freezing isothermal layer just above the surface, you can aggregate flakes and potentially increase ratios*.

 

*Unless the aggregates are so big that they sort of implode on impact, in which case your snowfall becomes denser again...

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  On 2/20/2015 at 2:45 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

They LOVE the tropicaltidbits snow maps...I find that system to be a bigger weenie map than any wxbell map, idc what algorithm they supposedly use.. No way northern Jersey is 6+" on that nam run... Ratios are between 8-10:1

Nah, JC said 150:1 ratios, I'm gonna go ahead and lock that up
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