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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years


PrinceFrederickWx
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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years  

248 members have voted

  1. 1. Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years

    • February 18-19, 1979 - "PDI"
    • February 11, 1983
    • March 13-14, 1993 - "Superstorm of '93"
    • January 7-9, 1996 - "Blizzard of '96"
    • January 25, 2000
    • February 15-17, 2003 - "PDII"
    • December 18-19, 2009 - "Snowpocalypse"
    • February 5-6, 2010 - "Snowmageddon, part 1"
    • February 9-10, 2010 - "Snowmageddon, part 2"
    • January 22-23, 2016 - "Blizzard of 2016"


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Jan 96 is still king for me.   Slightly more snow and much stronger winds.  I did like the rates better during Jan 16 since it was more concentrated and seemed heavier for the most part.   Jan 16 is now the 2nd largest single snow storm in my lifetime...Just by a hair over the 2010 twins.

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Mar 93

Jan 96

Feb 10,2010

2016

83

Pd2

Jan 25,2000

Feb 5,2010

pd1 ( real young)

10-29-11.

Surprised 2/5/10 is so low....wish I was in Carroll for Mar 93 but alas I was living in NE Baltimore and only got a foot with sleet/ice....Even though 2/03 was a massive storm out here, I got 25.5", it just leaves a meh feeling in me.  I think it was the seemingly tiny snowflakes that made it less exciting and lack of real winds.

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My personal ranking:

 

Feb 10, 2010

January 2016

PDII

December 2009

Feb 6, 2010

 

I was too young in 1996, otherwise it would've certainly been up there. I still consider Feb 10 my favorite because the winds were incredible... much more impressive compared to the storm on Saturday, though the totals were slightly lower. I think most people from Baltimore north are going to rank that one very high. January 2016 is a close second.

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It's really hard for me to isolate 1/96 from that entire amazing week (2.5" from the clipper, then 6.5" from the Friday storm) and just as hard to isolate 2/5-6/10 from 2/9-10/10. A lot of my fond memories had to do with the feeling of those entire weeks. So, both of those storms get a boost from what happened afterwards. 

 

If I were to just compare the period when the snow was falling, then 1/16 wins. It's the biggest storm total in my location in my lifetime and had plenty of what I love about the best ones-- wind and drifts. And of course, thunder!

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Honestly...I liked Feb 10th mostly over the 5th because it was such an epic miller b for our area. When the coastal took over about 2 am in the morning the rates were great for at least 10 hours. I remember alot of premature towel throwing that prior evening and all of a sudden the radar just literally blew up if you remember. As far as 93 out here..yea ...you mist a great one.

 

From what I remember, the blizzard didn't really get going until mid-late morning, and I remember waking up surprised to see blizzard warnings in the area. From late-morning through until sundown, it was just an amazing day for those who were in the favored spots.

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For DC/BAlt and extended suburbs and exurbs, it is a no brainer call - January 2016.  For my backyard it is a little tougher. I need to marinate on it more. For some reason the 6 hour lull was more painful than the 96/03 flip, even though it snowed the entire time and I picked up 1-2" during it.  I also got paid back handsomely as the 2pm  - 6pm period was epic, and I really got hit flush, and picked up 5-6" additional inches.  I have video from 3pm Saturday that is as good as anything from any of the other big storms.  I didn't think I would lull for so long, but in the end it all worked out and I nailed my forecast.  I think ultimately I will lean toward January 2016.  I got close to as much snow as 96/10 and more snow than 09/03, and I was in a downtown location which was really cool in terms of experiencing the impact.  Every storm except 2009 had its drawbacks and I got more snow than 09.  

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Honestly...I liked Feb 10th mostly over the 5th because it was such an epic miller b for our area. When the coastal took over about 2 am in the morning the rates were great for at least 10 hours. I remember alot of premature towel throwing that prior evening and all of a sudden the radar just literally blew up if you remember. As far as 93 out here..yea ...you mist a great one.

Oh I agree concerning the the 2010 twins, the first one was a more gentle heavy dumping compared to its late born twin.  I actually ended up with one more inch (27) from the 2/9-10 storm than the 2/5.   It was a remarkable feat for a miller B.

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For DC/BAlt and extended suburbs and exurbs, it is a no brainer call - January 2016.  For my backyard it is a little tougher. I need to marinate on it more. For some reason the 6 hour lull was more painful than the 96/03 flip, even though it snowed the entire time and I picked up 1-2" during it.  I also got paid back handsomely as the 2pm  - 6pm period was epic, and I really got hit flush, and picked up 5-6" additional inches.  I have video from 3pm Saturday that is as good as anything from any of the other big storms.  I didn't think I would lull for so long, but in the end it all worked out and I nailed my forecast.  I think ultimately I will lean toward January 2016.  I got close to as much snow as 96/10 and more snow than 09/03, and I was in a downtown location which was really cool in terms of experiencing the impact.  Every storm except 2009 had its drawbacks and I got more snow than 09.  

I think the reason is the existence of this board, so now there's a whole community to get stressed with  :) and the availability of all of this info we have now- radar, short-term models, etc. 

We were much younger in '96, so I relied more on what the TV weathermen were saying. And they weren't worried about the light mix period. It was the first mega one since '83 so the whole experience was amazing. Then in 2/03, the sleet was in the final forecasts, so I just accepted the changeover.  

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I think the reason is the existence of this board, so now there's a whole community to get stressed with   :) and the availability of all of this info we have now- radar, short-term models, etc. 

We were much younger in '96, so I relied more on what the TV weathermen were saying. And they weren't worried about the light mix period. It was the first mega one since '83 so the whole experience was amazing. Then in 2/03, the sleet was in the final forecasts, so I just accepted the changeover.  

 

agreed.  I was fearing the dryslot for a few days, because the east solutions with an Apps dryslot didn't make any sense to me.  It was pretty clear to me that Winchester/Martinsburg/Westminster would get smoked.  I never once doubted that. And the 0z Euro Thursday night confirmed the dryslot fear.  So I was prepared, but I just didn't think it would be for so long.  It would have been cool to make a run at 25-30 for the city.  But in the end we got raked with the Baltimore band.  But I agree with you.  In some ways we know too much.  

 

I want to add that I am not a totals junkie.  I know I am rarely going to do as well as the North and West folks, and I love snow whether it is 3" or 10".  I wanted to witness the crippling of infrastructure.  That was more my morning disappointment than anything.  Not being able to see something unique in terms of downtown paralysis.  In the end I saw it.  Based on both the experience at the time and the post-mortem, I have no doubt in my mind that downtown DC experienced its biggest snow since 1922, and perhaps equal to 1899.  This was undoubtedly bigger than 79/83/96/03/09/10 in my location.  The 22" white house and 4th and L totals may be a tad inflated, but I think I cleared 20" easily.  I also think DCA got at least 19 and maybe more.

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Honestly...I liked Feb 10th mostly over the 5th because it was such an epic miller b for our area. When the coastal took over about 2 am in the morning the rates were great for at least 10 hours. I remember alot of premature towel throwing that prior evening and all of a sudden the radar just literally blew up if you remember. As far as 93 out here..yea ...you mist a great one.

 

 

From what I remember, the blizzard didn't really get going until mid-late morning, and I remember waking up surprised to see blizzard warnings in the area. From late-morning through until sundown, it was just an amazing day for those who were in the favored spots.

 

 

For DC/BAlt and extended suburbs and exurbs, it is a no brainer call - January 2016.  For my backyard it is a little tougher. I need to marinate on it more. For some reason the 6 hour lull was more painful than the 96/03 flip, even though it snowed the entire time and I picked up 1-2" during it.  I also got paid back handsomely as the 2pm  - 6pm period was epic, and I really got hit flush, and picked up 5-6" additional inches.  I have video from 3pm Saturday that is as good as anything from any of the other big storms.  I didn't think I would lull for so long, but in the end it all worked out and I nailed my forecast.  I think ultimately I will lean toward January 2016.  I got close to as much snow as 96/10 and more snow than 09/03, and I was in a downtown location which was really cool in terms of experiencing the impact.  Every storm except 2009 had its drawbacks and I got more snow than 09.  

 

 

Oh I agree concerning the the 2010 twins, the first one was a more gentle heavy dumping compared to its late born twin.  I actually ended up with one more inch (27) from the 2/9-10 storm than the 2/5.   It was a remarkable feat for a miller B.

2/9/10-2/10/10 has to be number 1 specifically for the Manchester area. 32 inches and that is a low estimate, may have easily been 3ft. plus. The initial thump maxed out here. We had a foot on the ground by 12 midnight. picked up 8 of those 12 in a 3 hour period. After the 3 hour lull from 2a.m.-5a.m. things got cranking fast.  2 inch an hour rates with temps falling to around 18-20 and rapidly increasing winds. We had true whiteout condition at least a half dozen times and I mean true whiteout conditions. I couldn't even see my neighbors house on several hundred feet away. The ratios were insane for a HECS. Very low liquid content.

 

Heavy bands stayed over us all day. Never heard any thunder but others in the area did. Heavy bands would rotate through and as they did skies would get very dark as they approached, almost thunderstorm in nature. After the bands moved through skies would temporarily would brighten before the next one rolled in. As the storm winded down we would get these narrow bands theta dropped in from PA and would enhance with the elevation here. They were short induration but very intense. This went on for several hours. The last one of these bands came through at 10:30p.m. 

 

If you take the duration ( 32 hours ) plus the wind, temperatures and total accumulation I feel this has to be number 1 here. Also can't forget to mention the 18 inches that were on the ground at the start from the storm 3 days earlier. Of course the worst of this storm was much more localized than our recent blizzard. 

 

I do think for overall for this region the recent blizzard probably would be number 1. To see such a large area experiencing extremely high totals was truly remarkable.

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For DC/BAlt and extended suburbs and exurbs, it is a no brainer call - January 2016. For my backyard it is a little tougher. I need to marinate on it more. For some reason the 6 hour lull was more painful than the 96/03 flip, even though it snowed the entire time and I picked up 1-2" during it. I also got paid back handsomely as the 2pm - 6pm period was epic, and I really got hit flush, and picked up 5-6" additional inches. I have video from 3pm Saturday that is as good as anything from any of the other big storms. I didn't think I would lull for so long, but in the end it all worked out and I nailed my forecast. I think ultimately I will lean toward January 2016. I got close to as much snow as 96/10 and more snow than 09/03, and I was in a downtown location which was really cool in terms of experiencing the impact. Every storm except 2009 had its drawbacks and I got more snow than 09.

Was it 5" or 6"? There was beer riding on that... :lol:

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agreed. I was fearing the dryslot for a few days, because the east solutions with an Apps dryslot didn't make any sense to me. It was pretty clear to me that Winchester/Martinsburg/Westminster would get smoked. I never once doubted that. And the 0z Euro Thursday night confirmed the dryslot fear. So I was prepared, but I just didn't think it would be for so long. It would have been cool to make a run at 25-30 for the city. But in the end we got raked with the Baltimore band. But I agree with you. In some ways we know too much.

I want to add that I am not a totals junkie. I know I am rarely going to do as well as the North and West folks, and I love snow whether it is 3" or 10". I wanted to witness the crippling of infrastructure. That was more my morning disappointment than anything. Not being able to see something unique in terms of downtown paralysis. In the end I saw it. Based on both the experience at the time and the post-mortem, I have no doubt in my mind that downtown DC experienced its biggest snow since 1922, and perhaps equal to 1899. This was undoubtedly bigger than 79/83/96/03/09/10 in my location. The 22" white house and 4th and L totals may be a tad inflated, but I think I cleared 20" easily. I also think DCA got at least 19 and maybe more.

I think the totals in DC itself lean towards 2010. The reservoir was higher as was the spotter in Anacostia. No reports from near AU, but they were 25" and 27" in 2010, and I really doubt they were that high this time.
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I lean '10 over '16. The totals were basically equivalent, but the heavy snow and impact of 2010 outweigh the 2016 duration and wind for me.

Did you lose power in 2/10? 

The most impact I've ever endured in a snowstorm was during and after 2/5-6/10. We lost power for 30 hours with the neighborhood road completely untouched by plows. So, we were cold and stuck. At least after Isabel, I could drive out to places that had power. 

 

Specifically for Montgomery County, MD, the two storms are pretty much tied in terms of snowfall ranges. 1/16 looks like it's 20-35" range in the county (if you throw out that 'aggressive' 38.5" report from North Potomac). 2/5-6/10 was 24-32" range if you throw out the high and low outliers. 

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I lean '10 over '16. The totals were basically equivalent, but the heavy snow and impact of 2010 outweigh the 2016 duration and wind for me.

Definitely. I walked around as the storm was winding down and was amazed by how benign the storm seemed. There were no trees down or power outages, and my street was plowed as soon as the snow stopped, when it didn't see a plow for days after 2/5-6/10. It's also impossible to separate 2/5-6/10 from that entire wintry period and especially snoverkill. The storm never seemed that ferocious either, except for the brief deform action Saturday afternoon it basically seemed to be 1" of fluff per hour for 30 hours. The front-end stuff Friday night seemed kind of underwhelming and didn't really live up to the 3-4" an hour stuff that was advertised, even with the thundersnow. Saturday afternoon saved it. 

 

Of course, it was one of the most incredible weather events I have ever witnessed and a storm I will remember for a long, long time, but it just didn't quite pack the punch of '10.

 

Did you lose power in 2/10? 

The most impact I've ever endured in a snowstorm was during and after 2/5-6/10. We lost power for 30 hours with the neighborhood road completely untouched by plows. So, we were cold and stuck. At least after Isabel, I could drive out to places that had power. 

 

Specifically for Montgomery County, MD, the two storms are pretty much tied in terms of snowfall ranges. 1/16 looks like it's 20-35" range in the county (if you throw out that 'aggressive' 38.5" report from North Potomac). 2/5-6/10 was 24-32" range if you throw out the high and low outliers. 

 

gymengineer, what did you measure from the storm? I measured in a bunch of places and averaged around 30", but that might be a tad high. Also, exactly how much did this area get in 2010? I wasn't a weenie back then so didn't think to measure. 

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The lack of snow on the trees etc is actually a good point. Feb 10 definitely looked snowier above the ground (trees, power lines, etc) because it was a wetter snow. That could make me rethink the discussion a little bit. Guess that's the price you pay for powder.

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We truly live in the golden age of snowstorms. Every year for the most part seems like the someone on the E.C. gets hit with a HECS sized storm. Could be a change in climate, or just noise with such a small sample size. Who knows, 25 years from now we could be telling our kids or grand kids that we lived in the most amazing time for snowstorms. 

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We truly live in the golden age of snowstorms. Every year for the most part seems like the someone on the E.C. gets hit with a HECS sized storm. Could be a change in climate, or just noise with such a small sample size. Who knows, 25 years from now we could be telling our kids or grand kids that we lived in the most amazing time for snowstorms.

This is something I keep thinking about- I'd love to know what's driving this but I have no idea (Climate change? Small sample size? Some other cycle we're not aware of?). The feast or famine cycle was said to be the new normal but then we had two oldschool style winters in 13/14 & 14/15 which we really haven't seen since the 80's. It seems statistically significant- before 1979 we went between 20-37 years without a HECS on average.

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I think the totals in DC itself lean towards 2010. The reservoir was higher as was the spotter in Anacostia. No reports from near AU, but they were 25" and 27" in 2010, and I really doubt they were that high this time.

 

Looking back, you might be right but I think it is close.  The problem is the lack of data and the imprecision of measuring.  In 2010, the Reservoir was 2" more.  Otherwise we aren't comparing apples to apples.  Anacostia is at 30' and 1 mile south is up to 300', so assuming those are 2 different locations, I don't think you can compare, especially if we don't know the elevation.  I think if we take the Reservoir measurement at face value (26") there are going to be some 26-27" amounts in upper NW, especially above 350' (Reservoir COOP is at 150'). I think a poster on the Chevy chase line measured 26".  I don't really know why AU didn't do better than the reservoir in 2010, but perhaps I am overanalyzing.  I wish we had more measurements from 2010.  If we are going to take the White House*, 4th and L NE, Crystal City, and 17th and T measurements at face value - - all stations under 100'), then we are talking about downtown DC getting 19-22" which I think is more than 2010 (I got ~22" in Mt Pleasant a couple miles to the north at 210').  

 

My wild guess, is that 2010 was slightly better in elevated areas of DC, and 2016 was slightly better in UHI hell because it was a colder storm and wasn't 33-34 degrees for the 1st 10 hours.  There was less gradient this year which is why the Woodley Park/Zoo spotter* can get the same amount as 2 stations to his SE that are 200' lower.  

 

*The Woodley park guy is a classic overinflater.  I've told LWX not to use his totals, but maybe he behaved this event because his total seems reasonable, maybe even a tad low.

 

**The White House is a horrific place to measure snow.  I worked a block away for a couple years, and just walking several blocks to my northeast the difference was noticeable.  If the 22" total is legit at 30' just off of the mall, then I think downtown did better than 2010.

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gymengineer, what did you measure from the storm? I measured in a bunch of places and averaged around 30", but that might be a tad high. Also, exactly how much did this area get in 2010? I wasn't a weenie back then so didn't think to measure. 

I think when your street got plowed has a lot to do with how big an impact you feel in the suburbs, and that just varies from storm to storm. It sounds like in MoCo, some people got freed sooner than in 2/5-6/10 and some later.

 

I measured 2/10 in Potomac, not N. Bethesda, so I'm not sure how much this area got back then. Based on spotter reports, it seems likely N. Bethesda was in the 25-28" range for 2/5-6/10. I had 26.5" in 2/10 and ~28-29" for this one, but again in different locations. 

 

This storm was harder to measure for sure because of the wind, so I think that's what accounts for large differences in trained spotter/COCORAHS reports across short distances. (Like 25" vs. 34" a mile apart near Clarksburg or 22" vs. 32" less than a mile apart near Olney).

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