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February 1-2 Winter Event Obs


Ralph Wiggum

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Yes, I see those...maybe sooner than that. Time to go outside and savor the snow again :-).

 

Walked outside and it was sleeting already. Temp. is up to 33F. 1.1" snow accumulation....maybe not an overperformer but not bad all things considered. Time to go shovel before it weighs a ton...it's already pretty low ratio.

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Meh, sorry guys. Looks like no colder solution after all. Maybe upper Bucks/Montco can push some 3 or 4" totals before the flip.

 

Late week looks like a better setup, if it pans out at all. Nice southern stream Miller A potential, hopefully you guys cash in. If not, the long range looks cold and active at the very least.

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Anyway, snow picking up in intensity after the lull with temp around 32F.  Got 3/8" by about 10 pm and then nada until about midnight.  Would love to at least get 2-3" with the front end - that would put us at about 1.3" liquid equivalent total on the ground (we got 5" on 1/24, then 7" on 1/26 and 1" on 1/30, which is about 1.3" LE and I'm assuming we've only lost ~25% of that, leaving 1" LE - haven't actually measured though) and should be enough to hold the 3/4" or so of rain we're supposed to get, without losing too much snow cover to melting - going to be some serious cement after the freeze in the afternoon.  

 
Snowing somewhere between moderately and heavily with 3/8 of a mile visibility.  Have gotten an inch in the last 45 minutes and  have about 1 and 3/8" on the ground now.  Gorgeous out there - no wind and snow is just wet enough to stick to everything.  If we can keep this going for 2-3 more hours, we'll get to 4" or so - radar looks great.  
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1.2" in Ewing as of 1AM.

 

Ray - probably missed it - what did you predict for your house?  NWS had Ewing in the 1-2" swath.  Any thoughts for Edison?  NWS has us at 3-4" on the map and we're closing in on 1.5" now.  

 

Watching the progression of the sleet/mix line, it looks like I would get maybe 2 more hours of snow, assuming the line progresses at a similar rate (hopefully it slows down).  2 more hours at 1.25" per hour would give me about 4" before a changeover.  Always value your insight...

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Ray - probably missed it - what did you predict for your house?  NWS had Ewing in the 1-2" swath.  Any thoughts for Edison?  NWS has us at 3-4" on the map and we're closing in on 1.5" now.  Always value your insight...

That's what I thought too, an inch or two.  Will be closer to the top of that.  You'll make 2 for sure, not sure about 3, depends on if that changeover line slows down.

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That's what I thought too, an inch or two.  Will be closer to the top of that.  You'll make 2 for sure, not sure about 3, depends on if that changeover line slows down.

 

We're over 1.5" now, so 2" is a lock and I think 3" is almost a lock - beyond that is iffy.  Is there anything that would slow the progression of the sleet/mix line down?  Presumably, since we're further north, we're closer to the source of any flow of cold air, no?  Or does it just progress at ~30 miles per hour (my guesstimate from the radar) until it reaches Canada (or at least far NW NJ)?  

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Meh, sorry guys. Looks like no colder solution after all. Maybe upper Bucks/Montco can push some 3 or 4" totals before the flip.

 

Late week looks like a better setup, if it pans out at all. Nice southern stream Miller A potential, hopefully you guys cash in. If not, the long range looks cold and active at the very least.

 

Thanks again for the well wishes for snow. Enjoy another one up there in Boston!

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We're over 1.5" now, so 2" is a lock and I think 3" is almost a lock - beyond that is iffy.  Is there anything that would slow the progression of the sleet/mix line down?  Presumably, since we're further north, we're closer to the source of any flow of cold air, no?  Or does it just progress at ~30 miles per hour (my guesstimate from the radar) until it reaches Canada (or at least far NW NJ)?  

It should have no trouble going into NYC so at least that far it will have little stopping it.  North of there it will slow down.

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