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Obs/Weenie disco thread for SWFE to coastal Feb 2


Damage In Tolland

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Really nice explosion of precip over the Delmarva and S NJ...I don't really see how that whiffs eastern areas anyways...might even get a bit further west than that.

 

BOS could be putting up 15"+...I didn't think that was possible about 6 hours ago.

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32.1/30 - Light Rain.  

 

Finally made the full transition to liquid here.  Ice was starting to bend some of the pine branches so the melting came just in time!

 

No sign of the coastal front making a move down this way yet.  The slow but very steady rise in temps continue on a NE to NNE wind.

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BOX 1230 Update,

 

 

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*/ 1230 PM UPDATE...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS
- MIX OF SLEET / FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST AND SE MA
- CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE AND ISLANDS
- AS THE STORM SWEEPS OUT...CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW
- CONTINUED IMPACTS TO TRAVEL INTO THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING

*/ OVERVIEW...

2M TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A HASSLE! NOTING THE EMERGENCE OF
LOW PRESSURE S OF NEW ENGLAND SWEEPING E AND DEEPENING WITH THE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...FEEL THE WARM-LAYER INDICATED BY THE DUAL-POL
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF ABOVE-FREEZING
AIR ARE AT THEIR LIMIT. THE DIVIDING LINE APPEARS TO BE SET FROM
AROUND THE HARFORD METRO TOWARDS N PROVIDENCE ON UP INTO BOSTON.
IT WAS THE REGIONAL-CANADIAN MODEL 2-3 DAYS AGO WHICH SHOWED THIS
VERY WELL! POSSIBLE TO SAY IT IS 2-0 WITH THE LAST 2 STORMS?

ASIDE...N-WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE INTERIOR BACKING NOW TO THE
NW WITH THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WINDS. COLD FRONT STARTING
TO SLIDE INTO S NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF WHICH S-FLOW PER H85 VERTICAL
WIND PROFILERS IS FUNNELING MOISTURE N ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT
BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH LOCALIZED H85 F-GEN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT /OVER-RUNNING SETUP/ ASCENDING SLANTWISE ALONG A TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT.

SO SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1-2 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR...SO SNOWFALL GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPPED TO THE 14-18 INCH
RAIN. NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT ALONG
THE E-COAST WITH THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH.

TOWARDS THE SE...WILL SEE MIXING TO ALL RAIN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO COLD FRONT BEHIND WHICH THE DEEPENING LOW
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF REARWARD
BANDING WITH OCEAN- EFFECT SNOWS PER N WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FURTHER DETAILS WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTS BELOW:

*/ PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

MIX OF SNOW / SLEET / FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS RAIN FARTHER S ALONG
THE S-COAST INCLUDING THE CAPE / ISLANDS. IT IS WITHIN THE SE-
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE THAT WILL REMAIN AS A MIX.

AGAIN WILL SEE A CHANGE-BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM EXITS E AND NW-
WINDS FOLLOW USHERING COLDER AIR THROUGH ALL-LEVELS BACK INTO THE
REGION DURING WHICH TIME AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO ACCUM IS
POSSIBLE. THIS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF REARWARD BANDING AND OCEAN-
EFFECT PROCESSES.

SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AND N OF HARTFORD-BOSTON-PROVIDENCE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 14 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND
14 TO 18 INCHES. ALREADY SOME REPORTS GATHERED THAT EXCEED A FOOT!

LESSER AMOUNTS S WITH MIXING OF SLEET / FREEZING RAIN WHICH WILL
AMOUNT UP AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES. AREA OF BEST ICE ACCRETION /
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM S RI INTO SE MA. AMOUNTS AROUND 4 TO 8
INCHES...LOWEST OVER THE ISLANDS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES.

*/ STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...

GUSTY WINDS BEING OBSERVED ALL ALONG THE E/NE MA COASTLINE. NEAR-
TO FULL-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 35
MPH. POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERMITTENT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

*/ TOWARDS TONIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND
CAPE/ISLANDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET FROM THE 30S DOWN TO TEENS IN THE
MATTER OF JUST 2-3 HOURS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WET/SLUSHY ROADS
QUICKLY TURNING TO ICE.
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mixing back again, it will switch completely soon, 1-3 more before it's over. Great event

Not sure about "great".  But o.k. event at least for my locale. 

 

Looks like others are getting quite a snowstorm out of this.

 

...Just a stray sleet pellet every so often now.  Really hasn't been anything heavy since before 10:00am. 

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Really nice explosion of precip over the Delmarva and S NJ...I don't really see how that whiffs eastern areas anyways...might even get a bit further west than that.

 

BOS could be putting up 15"+...I didn't think that was possible about 6 hours ago.

 

 

The only thing that stands in the way is the guy doing the measurement at Winthrop....

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I thought everyone looks at WeatherFlow stations on the board ;). Ok let's just call it South-Southeast of Montauk and call it a day.

 

I'll take Atlantic City for 15", Alex.

 

Winds have picked up here as has the snow again.

 

As much as we might not admit it.......how did the Weather Channel map that was posted compare to this?  I don't remember the details, but I know we all poo-poo'd the amounts.

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Makes me laugh when everybody was saying that a foot was the max anybody would see. There are always surprises with storms, and absolutes should never be tossed around like they are fact..whether they be for more precip or less, or for tracks of the systems as well.

This secondary'd way farther south than the models had yesterday afternoon and evening, thus the colder solution all around for most areas outside of the Cape and islands.

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Not sure about "great". But o.k. event at least for my locale.

Looks like others are getting quite a snowstorm out of this.

...Just a stray sleet pellet every so often now. Really hasn't been anything heavy since before 10:00am.

I think it's great, it's all about the base. Don't have to jackpot. Lots of snow for peeps who didn't get 30, birthday snow, New baby snow, old man winter snow. Great event
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