cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Alcohol. lol wut? No we did switch over to rain for awhile again, but it's been all snow for past half hour or so. EDIT: Got a text from a buddy in Rock Island a little while ago and they had yet to see a flake there. Latest RUC backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The dreaded dry slot. This time though, that HRRR run looks pretty hot for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Any new thoughts on the lake effect potential? I keep hoping to see some model explicitly hang up the band but not really seeing it so far. Can't imagine what kind of totals there might be at the southern end of the lake if it's not as transient.Well haven't looked at soundings since I left work but the earlier NAM runs were a bit more marginal with inversion heights. Still strong convergence and omega should hit the DGZ at least a bit. FWIW, looking at LE parameters on the 00z IWX WRF, if a nice single band can get going Monday morning like it shows, it would suggest that the band slowly pivots from NE IL to NW IN. Question would be how intense is the band due to suboptimal inversion heights. At this point, I think there's gonna be a halfway decent lake band thanks to the strong convergence. We've seen convergence overcome marginal delta TS and ELs before. May not need it to be super intense to add up because ratios will be really high by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Man that's kinda warm verbatim, with the freezing line hung up in Chi metro area. They still show your area as heavy snow, so even with somewhat marginal temps, should see decent accumulation during that period thanks to dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 26" for Geos! If only! I wouldn't think you'll stay rain for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Incredible radar presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Following the theme of the night, gonna throw in an ORD call. Edit: 15.1" at ORD for a top 10 event and 13.4" out here. Go big or go home lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If only! I wouldn't think you'll stay rain for long. Changed back over to snow about a half hour ago again. MLI finally all snow. DVN is back to snow after UP for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 pulling a here....but looking at the radar reminds of being a kid in spring or fall and saying "imagine if that was all snow"....but in this case it is... .4" the last hour total to 1.1" thus far pouring decent flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 ORD rollin' already... KORD 010451Z 07007KT 3/4SM R10L/P6000FT -SN BR OVC005 M01/M02 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP218 SNINCR 1/1 P0004 T10061017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 ORD rollin' already... KORD 010451Z 07007KT 3/4SM R10L/P6000FT -SN BR OVC005 M01/M02 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP218 SNINCR 1/1 P0004 T10061017 1 down, 14.1 to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 HRW-NMM still quite juiced through 36hrs. The more conservative ARW is as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Never updated my call for LAF so here goes. The slight warming trend has me concerned and I think 5-7" is a better call than 7-10". That being said, lower confidence than usual as that southern gradient is nasty so there's some potential error either way. Looks like it could rip pretty good for a while during the day. Observational trends tomorrow will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 KDBQ 010453Z AUTO 08009KT 1/2SM R36/3500V4500FT SN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP197 P0009 T10111022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 HRW-NMM still quite juiced through 36hrs. The more conservative ARW is as well. Wow, both showing 1.25-1.50" of QPF right along the lakeshore from Milwaukee south. With the ratios expected, that could be 18" here, borderline unbelievable if this could come close to verifying considering my low expectations for this storm just a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 ORD rollin' already... KORD 010451Z 07007KT 3/4SM R10L/P6000FT -SN BR OVC005 M01/M02 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP218 SNINCR 1/1 P0004 T10061017 Yeah my buddy is working the midnight shift. In good hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I measured 1.0" at 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow, both showing 1.25-1.50" of QPF right along the lakeshore from Milwaukee south. With the ratios expected, that could be 18" here, borderline unbelievable if this could come close to verifying considering my low expectations for this storm just a couple days ago. Well there's a shocker. Rinse, wash, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow, both showing 1.25-1.50" of QPF right along the lakeshore from Milwaukee south. With the ratios expected, that could be 18" here, borderline unbelievable if this could come close to verifying considering my low expectations for this storm just a couple days ago. Punted on Thursday iirc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow, both showing 1.25-1.50" of QPF right along the lakeshore from Milwaukee south. With the ratios expected, that could be 18" here, borderline unbelievable if this could come close to verifying considering my low expectations for this storm just a couple days ago. clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 clow at 3/4 vis.....thumping pretty good out there now maybe a decent SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well there's a shocker. Rinse, wash, repeat. With all due respect, I hadn't seen a 6" storm since December of 2013, and those were right near the 6" mark. A bit of a drought for typical expectations (not quite Cyclone levels though), and given the trends of most storms this year, the power to be optimistic was not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 clown Fair'weather' fan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 By 18z tomorrow..it was about an 1" too much valid at 5z in the model based on the 5z reports but still pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was wondering about this myself. I feel like, outside of the storm warnings, they don't hold much merit to this one. ? Theyre forecasting a foot. Surely they'll up amounts with the morning package. If you want play by play, the NWS is the wrong place to look. Thats what this board is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You can tell our warm air issues are over, as even with these relatively light returns the snow is coming down quite nicely. All evening we had pretty good radar returns overhead, but even when it was all snow the intensity was pretty meh. The event is definitely starting to take off now for here. Should really get into some nice rates from midnight through 7-8am. My first call yesterday afternoon was for 8-11" here, then bumped it down to 5-8" after noticing our potential mixing issues. Bumped that back up to 8-11" late last evening again after gaining confidence that good rates following the mixing issues would help out. I'm still riding the 8-11" call, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 1.2" here as of 11:30. 12:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 3/4" IMBY. Looks like a quick burst is heading this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 4z RAP has the sfc low down to 1001mb due west of Indy on the IL/IN border at 22z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 ARW is fully loaded out to 48hrs now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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