Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 2z RAP down to 1003mb and taking into to Indy it looks like.. rap_namer_018_precip_p01.gif Wonder if that's the RAP being the RAP at that range and if it won't nudge south on later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Maybe tomorrow in the deformation axis, intense fgen and some -epv over the region on the 18z GFS, but I wouldn't bet on it. Definitely not tonight. some clown from WI on twitter said he said "two flashes"....good lol worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think I'll do okay but really am sad the better snow totals are going north. I really thought we had a chance a,few days ago to rival VD 2007. This layout is starting to remind me a bit of the Dec 2007 storm. LAF barely squeaked by with only minimal mixing issues, while areas east of here toward you and especially farther east had a warm surge that kept it more mixy for a longer time. At this point I'm not really sure if LAF is going to do any worse than OKK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 some clown from WI on twitter said he said "two flashes"....good lol worthy yeah umkay sure...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 some clown from WI on twitter said he said "two flashes"....good lol worthy palm.....face..... clow airport down to a mile vis...gotta be close to half an inch now...but i'll stick with the measurements on the top of the hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wonder if that's the RAP being the RAP at that range and if it won't nudge south on later runs. Normally would hedge that way but does have support from other guidance in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looking at the radar and realizing the duration of this event is somewhat staggering. Probably not getting too much sleep tonight. DKB is stacking flakes, eyeballing about a half inch. Solid moderate snow. Roads snow covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centriptic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 4km NAM is also historic for Detroit and surrounding areas and incredible for Chicago as well. Keep in mind these are using 10:1 ratios and in many cases they should be better than that. nam4km_asnow_ncus_14.png Understandable, but with a climate record of just over 100 years old, records are also pretty easy to break. Cutting the QPF is standard practice, especially with the NAM, but this storm has outstanding moisture and all the models are going nuts with the QPF. I don't think anyone knows how much to cut it, if any. Maybe it's even underdone? I honestly couldn't tell you. 18" or bust Edit: ...Knocks on wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 DVN has our zone forecast at 9-14" now. Wow. Wouldn't it be something to skip right over the 6" threshold and break the 12" threshold? lol. That LOT forecast map is wallpaper material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z GFS coming in a bit north and wetter through 18hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 DVN has our zone forecast at 9-14" now. Wow. Wouldn't it be something to skip right over the 6" threshold and break the 12" threshold? lol. That LOT forecast map is wallpaper material. good on ya! cheers! make sure to grab some pics before the winds take over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z GFS coming in a bit north and wetter through 18hrs. You beat me to it was just going to say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Everything covered. Once this thing starts going it will add up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RGEM is about 1.2-1.25". Pretty solid consensus on mid teens here, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Coating on all sidewalks and side streets in Hyde Park. Looks like we narrowly escaped the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 4km NAM map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RGEM is about 1.2-1.25". Pretty solid consensus on mid teens here, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 surface gust via the 00Z GFS at 00Z 02FEB spiking 45 just west of DuPage and 40 through most of LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Coating on all sidewalks and side streets in Hyde Park. Looks like we narrowly escaped the rain. Yep looks like north of Jolie was all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 DVN has our zone forecast at 9-14" now. Wow. Wouldn't it be something to skip right over the 6" threshold and break the 12" threshold? lol. That LOT forecast map is wallpaper material. You know... I'm trying so hard not to get excited, but I think it's safe to say a good majority of us along I-94 to I-80 are going to see a historic snow storm. I can't remember ever seeing all models gain strength, maintain (and increase) QPF, all the way up to the event and then some. I know not to put much stock into SREF plumes, but it's hard to ignore a mean of 17" and they're clustered tight with many in the 18-22" range. Am I dreaming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z GFS coming in a bit north and wetter through 18hrs. How can it get any wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like the LES really going to effect the totals this side of the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow becoming more steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow becoming more steady The number of times I said this year, "man, if we could get this snow all day"... And here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0Z GFS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z GFS is not over the top juicy like 0z NAM, but still really juicy. Edited to delete GFS duplication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0Z GFS started out stronger / wetter in the early part of the run then ended up the same or a hair weaker overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Changed over to all snow here, for now, about 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Copious amounts of incoming moisture plus a massive qpf geographical coverage on national radar maps at present tell me this is going to be one historic storm for those in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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