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Superbowl Snowstorm Thread Part 3


TugHillMatt

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Amazing storm so far.  Sitting in the office watching it unfold... Unreal.

 

post-2790-0-58048700-1422811343_thumb.jp

 

Shot from my "office".. not the best, because of the screen in the window... This is looking north toward the train station. 

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Meteorological Perfection. Also gravity wave noted on LOT and TMDW/TORD over Will and Cook counties right now. This is absolutely incredible. Wonder if we have a legit shot at t-snow now. Soundings suggest lapse rates are over 7K/km above 500 mb.

fabf06eb86e817f8d4fd07cf64c0d40d.jpg

 

Beautiful shot right there.  This one is gonna go down as one of my favorite snowstorms to be sure.  Amounts will end up very impressive, and the longevity of it, combined with hardly any lulls makes this one a fantastic storm.

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Meteorological Perfection. Also gravity wave noted on LOT and TMDW/TORD over Will and Cook counties right now. This is absolutely incredible. Wonder if we have a legit shot at t-snow now. Soundings suggest lapse rates are over 7K/km above 500 mb.

fabf06eb86e817f8d4fd07cf64c0d40d.jpg

 

It really is like GHD in this sense. We had that mid level dry slot come in and the PV came east, heights tanked and you had convection fill in the dry slot

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I really doubt DTX goes full panic mode and issues a blizzard warning, especially since the last two times they did, it didn't quite pan out, but regardless it will be nasty this evening and all signs point to a top-tier snowstorm for the area.

I don't understand that logic. This has nothing to do with past storms. If the criteria fits they need to issue one.

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Latest WSW update said gusts to 30MPH and 1"/hr rates later in afternoon. That is tantalizingly close to blizzard criteria. Depending on how next few hours unfold, I don't think it's out of the question for an upgrade for the southern 2 or 3 tiers, but they play it pretty conservatively.

 

I really doubt DTX goes full panic mode and issues a blizzard warning, especially since the last two times they did, it didn't quite pan out, but regardless it will be nasty this evening and all signs point to a top-tier snowstorm for the area.

 

I don't understand that logic. This has nothing to do with past storms. If the criteria fits they need to issue one.

That is my problem with DTX at time as DMC says.  But even GRR hasn't pulled the trigger so I doubt DTX will if they don't!!!

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Also of note, the 12z NMM core (so the WRF-NMM, and 4 km NAM, which are very close to the same thing if not exactly, right?) are more bullish again with lake-effect chances.  Still brings a nice band through about 15-18z and simulated reflectivites are stronger than they've been as well.

 

Even the WRF-ARW has a pretty good signal.

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Hey Tim, that stuff in IL looks to be making a beeline for LAF.  Should be a nice burst again later.

 

Think it's going to miss barely north. Though bigger flakes have resumed here for the moment.

 

And you think my thermometer is warm biased, check out that 39˚ just to the southwest of here. :lol:

 

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I bet DTX is waiting for the system to unfold a little more. Rates here in Windsor are increasing by the hour. Some light drifting too. Haven't had too much time to analyze much wrt accumulations today.... Is south of city still in the heaviest or is the nams recent trend best??

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