stormtrackertf Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z 4km NAM total precip and the sfc low on this run goes right over Indy.. nam4kmFLT_prec_precacc_036.gif Wow, I hadn't looked at the QPF. 1.35 in MI and almost 1.60" in IL. Super juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 About 1/3" so far here. Snow still pretty light/wet. Need rates to pick up, and I'm sure they will before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 This whole system just keeps looking better and better for Lower Michigan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Still snowing here, but lightly. About 0.5" or so thus far. 0z NAM north again, and reduces snow totals further for LAF. Looks like a 4-8" spread from south to north in the county. Only about 20-30 miles left of wiggle room now, before well...yeah. Oh well. Enjoy the storm folks...and good luck to all. Not too late to get to IKK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We normally play the game with the longer range "clown maps" by cutting qpf. What is the process when we are looking at 24-36 hours? Are these snowfall maps generally more accurate? I'm still not expecting (nor will I ever) expect 14"+ in the Detroit metro area. Climo says no, so until it's on the ground, I expect a traditional "strong" event of 8-11". Understandable, but with a climate record of just over 100 years old, records are also pretty easy to break.Cutting the QPF is standard practice, especially with the NAM, but this storm has outstanding moisture and all the models are going nuts with the QPF. I don't think anyone knows how much to cut it, if any. Maybe it's even underdone? I honestly couldn't tell you. 18" or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not too late to get to IKK. lol, nope. My call will end up pretty good though. Have fun up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was expecting the NAM to slightly go the other way ... Wow ... now I am going to be up half the night waiting on the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was expecting the NAM to slightly go the other way ... Wow ... now I am going to be up half the night waiting on the other models. lol! The GRR NWS has slowly been upping their totals throughout the evening. I wonder what they will do now with that NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was expecting the NAM to slightly go the other way ... Wow ... now I am going to be up half the night waiting on the other models. Latest NAM and 4km NAM runs would give you upwards of 18" even as far north as you are. Over 22" IMBY. Obviously not expecting that, but the signs point to north being the way to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Updated LOT map... Bumped up totals in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Timmer says possible thundersnow in Chicago tonight??? Don't know that parameters are quite there for that... Light snow should begin to fall in Chicago in the next few hours, and then gradually intensify thereafter. Even thunder snow possible late tonight! source FB decent flakes pouring down....gonna go measure in a bit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Been sitting here at 33F for the last two hrs, awaiting snow bands. Teetering on the brink between a 6-8" storm and a 11-12" storm here. Curious to see where this one ends up, congrats to SE MI for hitting the mother lode on this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This one is gonna be special for us snow lovers, but very high impact. Hopefully all the naysayers on our social media outlets the past few days take it seriously tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 First time posting in here.... I changed over to snow around 8:45 near Galesburg in WC IL. Finally after several hours of grueling cold drizzle/light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 lol! The GRR NWS has slowly been upping their totals throughout the evening. I wonder what they will do now with that NAM run.If 93 is on they may go back to a WWA ... ... seriously I imagine both GRR &DTX will wait until the GFS & EURO come out before changing anything. If the trend continues they will have some big adjustments to do.To answer your question from the other thread ... yes the is a ton of open land in Livingston county (lots of farms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 More cold rain in St Louis. The winter that can kiss my a$$. You guys have fun in your big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 .2" in the first full hour... you can see the plates starting to stack nicely on top of the snow/sleet bottom dusting layer now though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow was very light until just the last 20 minutes now it's picking up a bit. Measured .4" already which was a bit of a surprise this early. I'm getting a good feeling about this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Latest NAM and 4km NAM runs would give you upwards of 18" even as far north as you are. Over 22" IMBY. Obviously not expecting that, but the signs point to north being the way to go... It is hard for me to hold off my excitement and remain level headed seeing what we're seeing. Now I just want it to start ... The waiting process is the worst!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Light snow here now in Lake county IN with a light coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 TSSN? Really? Don't see that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 512_100.gif And the RGEM joins the stronger/farther NW party. Good sign. That looks very similar to the 12z and 18z GFS. Even if midnight shift doesn't opt to upgrade to a Blizzard Warning, chances are increasing for us needing to issue one. I'll be there in the morning tomorrow helping out if the decision still needs to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 If 93 is on they may go back to a WWA ... ... seriously I imagine both GRR &DTX will wait until the GFS & EURO come out before changing anything. If the trend continues they will have some big adjustments to do. To answer your question from the other thread ... yes the is a ton of open land in Livingston county (lots of farms). LOL! I always know we're doomed when "93" and "JK" do the forecasts together. When they do the forecasts, it's like we live in Georgia. This storm is looking sweet for you! Have fun playing in all those fields! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 TSSN? Really? Don't see that happening Maybe tomorrow in the deformation axis, intense fgen and some -epv over the region on the 18z GFS, but I wouldn't bet on it. Definitely not tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 512_100.gif This would be about the time Alek would say "Wagon's north". RIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 And the RGEM joins the stronger/farther NW party. Good sign. That looks very similar to the 12z and 18z GFS. Even if midnight shift doesn't opt to upgrade to a Blizzard Warning, chances are increasing for us needing to issue one. I'll be there in the morning tomorrow helping out if the decision still needs to be made. 2z RAP down to 1003mb and taking into to Indy it looks like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 First flakes at Cyclone77's house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Still snowing here, but lightly. About 0.5" or so thus far. 0z NAM north again, and reduces snow totals further for LAF. Looks like a 4-8" spread from south to north in the county. Only about 20-30 miles left of wiggle room now, before well...yeah. Oh well. Enjoy the storm folks...and good luck to all. I think I'll do okay but really am sad the better snow totals are going north. I really thought we had a chance a,few days ago to rival VD 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 33 degrees and just hit .10 of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.