dmc76 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well I'm very proud of myself managed to get 4 hours of sleep. About 0.3" so far but it just started 11-15"+ to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow, I was wrong, just went out and measured 4.5" very wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well I'm very proud of myself managed to get 4 hours of sleep. About 0.3" so far but it just started 11-15"+ to go! Yeah I got like 5 hours ... BARELY!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 347 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 SHORT TERM 347 AM CST THROUGH MONDAY... ...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO JUST DRIZZLE/SNIZZLE AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THAT AREA REMOVING ICE NUCLEI FROM THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.... IZZI Izzi just used the us weenie made up word 'SNIZZLE' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah I got like 5 hours ... BARELY!!!! snow is really dry, temps around 20...ratios seem to be fairly high. I would not be surprised to see a 20 inch amount across the area especially toward Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Camping here at the office since I have to work early again tomorrow. Roads are a mess. Saw a car slide off the road in front of me on Joliet Road in Bolingbrook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Damn... by that run, FNT is around 16" or so. Edit: My P&C says 1-3" today and 3-5" tonight. Love this model trend for us!!! 6Z NAM/GFS is 18"-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Love this model trend for us!!! 6Z NAM/GFS is 18"-24" Were slowly reeling this sucker in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Haven't fone outside but doesn't actually look like much has happened since I went to sleep. Dry air over the south side perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 snow is really dry, temps around 20...ratios seem to be fairly high. I would not be surprised to see a 20 inch amount across the area especially toward Detroit. At least the dry air didn't win out like normal. This first wave is usually all destroyed and mostly Virga. It was nice to wake with it actually snowing and at least some accumulation on the ground. Still hard to believe this trend but now I am beginning to believe it going to be a big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 At least the dry air didn't win out like normal. This first wave is usually all destroyed and mostly Virga. It was nice to wake with it actually snowing and at least some accumulation on the ground. Still hard to believe this trend but now I am beginning to believe it going to be a big one! I agree. I was expecting a period of Virgo but no it's happening!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Were slowly reeling this sucker in. Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I agree. I was expecting a period of Virgo but no it's happening!! There was a period of Virga around 2 AM last night ... I woke to a dog fight right out my window ... see the banter thread ... if it wasn't for the fn dog fight I would not have even known it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Small Flakes starting now way up here on the northern fringe, had an hour of virga but the dry air is losing out aleady, always a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 S***t on the way into work this morning. Yet another s**t GHD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah I got like 5 hours ... BARELY!!!! 4 hours here Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Haven't fone outside but doesn't actually look like much has happened since I went to sleep. Dry air over the south side perhaps? I measured ~3" a few minutes back. IIRC, overnight point was 2-4 so we are right on track, especially this far east in the CWA. We struggled with some persistent subsidence north of the enhanced band near IKK but better broad lift is starting to push in now as we enter the meat of the system and we'll see rates jump as temps drop and the deformation band takes shape. I'd look for an additional 8"-10" on top of what has already fallen. Good luck down there. Hope Baum makes bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 hello alek 5.3" at 6AM CT branches are weighing down all over the place....looks amazing outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 DTW at 1.3" at 7am.....its kind of a sugary powder (probably 11-1 ratio or so) but the ratios will pick up as the temps drop and the flake size increases. Looking good for a foot or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 3.5" at 6am. Picking back up again after a lull and starting to get pretty windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 DTW at 1.3" at 7am.....its kind of a sugary powder (probably 11-1 ratio or so) but the ratios will pick up as the temps drop and the flake size increases. Looking good for a foot or more I bet you never said that before "foot or more" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I measured ~3" a few minutes back. IIRC, overnight point was 2-4 so we are right on track, especially this far east in the CWA. We struggled with some persistent subsidence north of the enhanced band near IKK but better broad lift is starting to push in now as we enter the meat of the system and we'll see rates jump as temps drop and the deformation band takes shape. I'd look for an additional 8"-10" on top of what has already fallen. Good luck down there. Hope Baum makes bank. Doin well. Everything still looks on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 FROM DTX: A FEW MORE IMPORTANT ITEMS TO DISCUSS. 1. VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...SALT PREPERATION WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TREATING SURFACES. 2. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL RATIOS. GENERALLY DO NOT LIKE TO FORECAST VERY HIGH RATIOS NORTH OF 15:1 IN WINTER STORM SCENARIOS. THE REASON IS WIND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CRYSTAL FRACTURE AND SETTLING. COULD ALSO SEE A 10:1 BIAS IN ACCUMULATION REPORTING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING OF SNOW/REQUIRED ESTIMATION. 3. WILL REITERATE ONE MORE TIME THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND MAY TEST SOME PATIENCE DUE TO POSSIBLE HEADLINE FATIGUE. Got to love #3 as it was written right to us weenies ... Little OT on the part I bolded. This must be the reason several storms when I lived just a few miles from the DTX office that my snow measurements were typically higher than the DTX office with the bigger storms. I NEVER used a 10:1 ratio just because it was windy. WTF is up with that. If this is truly a 'Required estimation' rule then Boston & eastern MA didn't just get a 2'-3' Blizzard because their liquid equivalent was not even close to 2.4"-3.6" QPF. Bostons liquid equivalent was just over 1" (1.06" I believe) Based on this DTX 'Required estimation' rule with it seriously windy in Boston during the Blizzard they should have used 10:1 ratios. Ahhhhh NO... I don't think so! They had around 25:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Got to love #3 as it was written right to us weenies ... Little OT on the part I bolded. This must be the reason several storms when I lived just a few miles from the DTX office that my snow measurements were typically higher than the DTX office with the bigger storms. I NEVER used a 10:1 ratio just because it was windy. WTF is up with that. If this is truly a 'Required estimation' rule then Boston & eastern MA didn't just get a 2'-3' Blizzard because their liquid equivalent was not even close to 2.4"-3.6" QPF. Bostons liquid equivalent was just over 1" (1.06" I believe) Based on this DTX 'Required estimation' rule with it seriously windy in Boston during the Blizzard they should have used 10:1 ratios. Ahhhhh NO... I don't think so! They had around 25:1 ratios. I think they were referring to spotters may estimate, not they themselves at DTX lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I bet you never said that before "foot or more" On the ground...yes...in a day...cant say that i have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Probably in the 3-4 inch range which is consistent with expectations. Winds starting to increase it seems with steady light snow continuing. Guessing intensity is going to need to increase at some point here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wonderful morning AFD from DTX. Hits the high points and reasons well. Also notes the potential for flake fracture to possibly inhibit higher end totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wonderful morning AFD from DTX. Hits the high points and reasons well. Also notes the potential for flake fracture to possibly inhibit higher end totals. Yeah...everyone does need to keep in mind cant necessarily count on ratios...other than that...all is going great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think they were referring to spotters may estimate, not they themselves at DTX lol I will send you a quick PM so not to fill this thread about this so called" BLOWING OF SNOW/REQUIRED ESTIMATION" rule. No need to make a pointless discussion about something we can't go back a prove one way or another. EDIT: Never mind your PM is full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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