Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 2.4" here as of 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Believe it or not, the 06z NAM is wetter and further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Cool...did you save that or do they have archived soundings? Saved along with 200 other images from that storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The snow just started here, a bit ahead of the radar... I figured it was about to start because it seemed pretty hazy the last hour or so when I look up toward the highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow has begun here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Lol the wettest run yet for here and points east to the lake and it comes after the event already started with other 2" down. Classic NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Damn... by that run, FNT is around 16" or so. Edit: My P&C says 1-3" today and 3-5" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 man this band developing in central il is wicked. easily 1in/hr rates. snowflakes are very dendritic. easily the size of quarters or bigger. im in Chillicothe just north of Peoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The PIA-BMI band coming up this way does look intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The PIA-BMI band coming up this way does look intense confirmation. it is. lol. rap and hrrr continue to show these kind of bands developing periodically. deformation band really coming together nicely nw of the sfc low in KS. this system is a beauty on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Pixie dust so farr. 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Pixie dust so farr. 1.0 Had fairly decen flake size here (dime-sized flakes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 2.5" and very wet snow, still lots of melting and compacting going on here... raining down moderate sized flakes. The 2.5" had .27" of water so under 10:1 ratios- those are going to have to improve big time for us to even sniff 10" out of this. The moisture plume with this is certainly impressive and lots more to come here but temps need to cool off a bit in the atmosphere to get those ratios up. Very calm outside too. And I agree cyclone77 this is no where near what we had on GHD... we had very heavy snow and serious winds of 50+ mph through much of the snowfall... the screeching/howling wind with that was unreal not to mention a few bursts of thundersnow too. I am just sweating bullets since I told my clients to all plan on 10 to possibly 12" of snow and it appears I may have been 2-4" to high the way things look right now.... hope mama nature doesn't make me look like a fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like IND cancelled the advisory for Indianapolis proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Was up to 2.9" as of 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 About to hammer here in Lake county with that band coming up from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 And Blizzard warnings beginAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI340 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.FIRST ROUND OF ENHANCED FORCING WITH OMEGA WITH 850-700 MB WAAMOVING ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN NOW...WITH ENHANCED BANDS ON REGIONALRADAR FROM S CNTRL IA TO WRN IL IN LINE WITH STRONGER FRONTOGENETICRESPONSE THAT LIFTS NORTH TO THE IL/WI BORDER REGION AROUND 12Z.THOUGH THIS STRONGER FORCING REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH WITH THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE...MODELS SHOW A SECOND FRONTOGENETIC BAND INRESPONSE TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF THE 700 MB LOWMOVING OVER SRN WI ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.WIND NOW BECOMING A MAJOR FACTOR AS ALL MODELS HAVE DEEPENED LOW ANDINCREASED WIND SPEEDS AT/BELOW 1000 FT. THAT ARE MIXING DOWN TO THESURFACE. WILL BE SEEING GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. WHILE WINDS AND TREESWILL LIMIT VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM FALLING TO 1/4 MILE FOR A PROLONGEDDURATION...OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THE HIGHER GUSTS ALONGLAKESIDE COUNTIES AND THE HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE...PUTRACINE AND KENOSHA INTO A BLIZZARD WARNING WHERE PROLONGED 1/4 MILEVSBYS ARE EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6z GFS continued the bump north/wetter etc. Another 14" to go lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 LOT also upgraded to blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6z GFS continued the bump north/wetter etc. Another 14" to go lol gfs 6z snow.gif 20" right by my hood. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 347 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015 SHORT TERM 347 AM CST THROUGH MONDAY... HAVE BEEN SWAMPED THIS MORNING AND AM RUNNING BEHIND...SO GOING TO KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF THIS MORNING AND JUST HIT THE IMPORTANT CHANGES. THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST IS THE UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NE IL/CHICAGO METRO AND TO LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS AND ADD MIXED PRECIP BACK INTO GRIDS FAR SE CWA. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND NORTH AND STRONGER WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND COMPARING GUIDANCE WITH SFC OBS AND BEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS IT WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK THAT THE RAP IN PARTICULAR HAS LATCHED ONTO. THE SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SFC HEIGHT RISES FAVOR PRETTY GOOD MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IS WHAT ALL MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ADVERTISING. TAKING EVEN THE BEST CASE SCENARIO AND ONE OF THE WEAKEST MODELS BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES SUPPORT 4-7 HOURS OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS/RAP SUPPORTING EVEN STRONGER WINDS OVER A LONGER DURATION. SNOW HAS BEEN WET THUS FAR BUT WITH TIME SHOULD SEE THE TRANSITION TOWARD DRIER/MORE BLOWABLE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND THE SNOW LIQUID CONTENT DECREASES. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND REGARDING UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING WAS THE SNOW LIQUID CONTENT AND PROBABILITY AND CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY HIGHER THE FARTHER NORTH FROM I-80 THAT YOU GET...BUT EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS I-80 FELT FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WHITE OUT CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS FEEL THAT A BLIZZARD WARNING COULD EASILY BE JUSTIFIED...BUT IN COORDINATION WITH MKX/DVN HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS SNOW INTENSITY COULD BE DECREASING AS WINDS PICK UP. QUITE POSSIBLE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO RE-ACCESS THIS AND AN UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING FOR RFD AND POINTS WEST COULD OCCUR ON THE DAY SHIFT. OTHER BIG CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLEET AND THEN DRIZZLE TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARMER AND THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE SFC LOW SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL WAA GOING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIP...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO JUST DRIZZLE/SNIZZLE AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THAT AREA REMOVING ICE NUCLEI FROM THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE WETTER SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD RESULT IN LESS SEVERE AND LESS IMPACTFUL BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPS AND POTENTIAL MIX PRECIP HAVE CUT BACK ON ACCUMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACTUALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT DID LAST NIGHT...AND IT WAS ALREADY LOOKING MARGINAL. SOME SYSTEM SNOWS SHOULD LINGER INTO THIS EVENING BUT LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS LOOK MINOR WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH AS THE THERMODYNAMICS IMPROVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY. ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO SNOW TOTALS SHOULD END UP BEING TRIVIAL. FINALLY...GOING SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK RIGHT ON TARGET AND MADE VERY FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN IN SE AS NOTED ABOVE. A RESPECTABLY LARGE SWATH OF A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND PROBABLY CENTERED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE I-80 TO I-88/290 CORRIDORS. ACTUALLY THINKING THAT MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE CWA COULD END UP BEING ON THE HIGH END OF THE 10-14 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS POTENTIALLY PUSHING A FOOT AND A HALF IF THE DEFO BAND IS INDEED AS IMPRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. WHILE SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER MOST OF THE CWA...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED NOT FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT RATHER FOR VISIBILITY AND WINDS. THE CRITERIA FOR BLIZZARD WARNING IS 3+ HOURS OF LESS THAN 1/4SM VSBY IN FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Go big or go home from Gino's AFD, worthy of posted twice ACTUALLY THINKING THAT MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE CWA COULD END UP BEING ON THE HIGH END OF THE 10-14 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS POTENTIALLY PUSHING A FOOT AND A HALF IF THE DEFO BAND IS INDEED AS IMPRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like IND cancelled the advisory for Indianapolis proper. Yep, just cloudy here now. Good luck to you guys up north in Chi town region and northern IN. Enjoy your blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 To be back home right now....Someone in Racine/Kenosha will approach 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 1007 over EC KS right now. Seems to be jibing with the 6z NAM/9z RAP. 3hr pressure changes also seem to be verifying the models' stories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Still like the strong but transient lake band this evening. Low level convergence has increased over the past 24hrs fro MKE. Really starts to get going around 02z and peaks around 04z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I have 5.2 inches as of 4:10am... averaging 0.8" per hour. This stuff is very wet. I had to knock some off my tree limbs so they don't break. We are going to soar right through our 4-yr six inch barrier. So far with wet snow and light wind it has been easy to measure, but I don't know what I'm going to do when the snow becomes drier and the wind howls. My snowboards will likely become useless and I'll lose track of exactly how much snow I've received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Based off this, MKE is up to 4". MKE 011052Z 06020G26KT 1SM R01L/5000VP6000FT -SN BR BKN008 OVC016 M04/M06 A3011 RMK AO2 PK WND 05027/0955 TWR VIS 1 1/4 SLP207 SNINCR 4/5 P0004 T10391061 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just some brief but intense +SN with that 35dbz. Flake size is nice. Guessing we are at least 2.5" if not closer to 3". Back to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Very grainy type snow here in Nw Ohio. I have maybe 1.5 inches but I wont measure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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