cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:08 AM, Hoosier said: Who knew that Tim ran the HopWRF wrfarw3-accumsnow-18.png Is that with the slant stick, I mean Air Force method? 100% rain here now. Satellite dish is out from the wet snow caked to it up on the roof. Gonna have to head out in a sec and brush that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:17 AM, andyhb said: Good looking satellite shot here, this thing is gonna be some archive material when it wraps up tomorrow. yeah....a lot of pin up material already...I'm sure some better ones to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:11 AM, Minnesota Meso said: Showing this for prosperity. Lets see how it does. This the 18z run at 13:1 does any one care to see the AF Method? 26" for Geos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 lotta 3/4 mile or "better" vis obs through central iowa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Latest run of the HOP WRF is all-in, thanks to the Air Force method. 30"+ along the lake. Frame-worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:16 AM, RCNYILWX said: OH MY. It's like the models are trying to outdo each other tonight lol. Tropical PAC moisture feed FTW in a big way. Any new thoughts on the lake effect potential? I keep hoping to see some model explicitly hang up the band but not really seeing it so far. Can't imagine what kind of totals there might be at the southern end of the lake if it's not as transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:17 AM, andyhb said: Can we can the Alek talk? Good looking satellite shot here, this thing is gonna be some archive material when it wraps up tomorrow. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That's the king of clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This storm has stolen all the moisture from the equator and thrown it our way. I have never seen a tropical moisture plume disconnect like that. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 MCD 48.... Quote MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1013 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SE IA...NE MO...NRN ILCONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 010413Z - 011015ZSUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THISEVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL IA...SE IA...NE MOEWD INTO NRN IL. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOMELOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD AREA. DUE TO SFC TEMPS BEING NEARFREEZING...IMPACTS OF ANY HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER WCNTRLKS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SFCLOW ENEWD TO THE VICINITY OF OMAHA NEB AND DES MOINES IA. POCKETS OFMODERATE SNOWFALL ARE ALREADY ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THEBOUNDARY FROM SE NEB INTO SCNTRL IA AND FAR NRN MO. THIS IS INRESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40TO 50 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILLMOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SE IA INTO NRN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODHELPING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF SNOW AREEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN CNTRL AND SRN IA...SPREADINGSLOWLY EWD INTO NRN IL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFCTEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCDAREA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ASWET-BULBING AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACHNEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BANDS. THEPOTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NRN ILBEING IMPACTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPSNEAR FREEZING...THE IMPACT OF ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well I can pray, 1 in on my board and nary a pinger. Returns showed sleet right over me for a few but it was -SN, has been since onset. I'm sure the devil's gonna flick his tongue come daylight. Hope I'm not shoveling Slurpee tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This storm isn't holding anything back. We didn't even waste any precip on virga here in northern Indiana. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The HopWRF makes the backup RUC look like the Euro Anyways, I think the sfc low ends up passing over/very close to Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:06 AM, ohiocat5908 said: Feel pretty good where I'm at here in Toledo. I'm thinking 12-16 here. Looks like the winds will really pick up tomorrow afternoon and pretty much will be blizzard conditions. Does this look realistic to you guys??? My sister lives on the west side of Toledo. I wish I was there instead of up here, but at least the last runs have upped my forecasted amounts. Hang on down there. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:19 AM, cyclone77 said: 100% rain here now. Satellite dish is out from the wet snow caked to it up on the roof. Gonna have to head out in a sec and brush that off. Interesting... I did not expect anyone to transition back to rain, especially as far north as you are. I'm still only at 0.8" after 2 3/4 hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looking so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:34 AM, hawkeye_wx said: Interesting... I did not expect anyone to transition back to rain, especially as far north as you are. Yeah that was weird man. It's gone back over to all snow again with nice dendrites. Was very surprised to look out and see all rain after being all snow for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 dtx has not updated since 6pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:36 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Looking so good intel radar.gif Damn it's been a long time since we saw a radar thay full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:32 AM, Thundersnow12 said: The HopWRF makes the backup RUC look like the Euro Anyways, I think the sfc low ends up passing over/very close to Indy. The backup RUC is only 10 to 1, and it still has this to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:34 AM, wxman1952 said: My sister lives on the west side of Toledo. I wish I was there instead of up here, but at least the last runs have upped my forecasted amounts. Hang on down there. Mike Note: the "wacky" SREF plumes now have a range of 10.5" to 26.2" at Toledo, mean 16.1". I'll save that plume for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centriptic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:38 AM, Ajdos said: dtx has not updated since 6pm... I was wondering about this myself. I feel like, outside of the storm warnings, they don't hold much merit to this one. Point and Click hasn't change at all either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:39 AM, Stebo said: Damn it's been a long time since we saw a radar thay full. Probably GHD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:36 AM, cyclone77 said: Yeah that was weird man. It's gone back over to all snow again with nice dendrites. Was very surprised to look out and see all rain after being all snow for quite awhile. Alcohol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Legit snow here now. Any opinions on which model to go with for totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 2z HRRR sim radar and total QPF by 17z tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Moisture feed from the Pacific, southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic. It's no wonder the QPF with this system is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:42 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Probably GHD On the anniversary of GHD at that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:51 AM, Thundersnow12 said: 2z HRRR sim radar and total QPF by 17z tomorrow.. hrrr 17z radar.png hrrr 17z.png Man that's kinda warm verbatim, with the freezing line hung up in Chi metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 4:51 AM, Thundersnow12 said: 2z HRRR sim radar and total QPF by 17z tomorrow.. hrrr 17z radar.png hrrr 17z.png The dreaded dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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