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Superbowl Snowstorm Thread Part 3


TugHillMatt

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The QPF was out of control 2 days ago. It has steadily increased every single run since then. And in the process, has centered itself over my house. 18-24" potentially if play over parts of SE MI? Let's see what the rgem and gfs say over the next 2 hrs. But the 00z NAM freaking smokes Detroit.

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We normally play the game with the longer range "clown maps" by cutting qpf. What is the process when we are looking at 24-36 hours? Are these snowfall maps generally more accurate?

I'm still not expecting (nor will I ever) expect 14"+ in the Detroit metro area. Climo says no, so until it's on the ground, I expect a traditional "strong" event of 8-11".

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The QPF was out of control 2 days ago. It has steadily increased every single run since then. And in the process, has centered itself over my house. 18-24" potentially if play over parts of SE MI? Let's see what the rgem and gfs say over the next 2 hrs. But the 00z NAM freaking smokes Detroit.

The potential here is something you don't see very often at all even in fantasyland. Very cautiously pumped for this to get underway.

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We normally play the game with the longer range "clown maps" by cutting qpf. What is the process when we are looking at 24-36 hours? Are these snowfall maps generally more accurate?

I'm still not expecting (nor will I ever) expect 14"+ in the Detroit metro area. Climo says no, so until it's on the ground, I expect a traditional "strong" event of 8-11".

 

Prepare to be surprised. :)

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We normally play the game with the longer range "clown maps" by cutting qpf. What is the process when we are looking at 24-36 hours? Are these snowfall maps generally more accurate?

I'm still not expecting (nor will I ever) expect 14"+ in the Detroit metro area. Climo says no, so until it's on the ground, I expect a traditional "strong" event of 8-11".

Climo has said YES before it just hasn't happen in decades. So we are due.

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For those wondering about the high totals, IWX had this line in their afternoon afd

 

 


PWAT  VALUES OVR CNTL PLAINS ON ORDER OF 200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL.  EXPANSIVE BREADTH OF BULK MOISTURE WITH CONSISTENT 0.5 TO 0.65  INCH PWAT PIVOTING SLOWLY THROUGH SRN TWO THIRDS CWA THROUGH THE  EVENT...WITH CULMINATING 0.9 INCH PWAT TAP ACRS SWRN OH SUN  EVENING...ON ORDER OF 2 SD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL  MEAN...IMPLICATING THIS EVENT WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR BEING SIG  OUTLIER TO CLIMATOLOGY. 
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Still snowing here, but lightly. About 0.5" or so thus far. 

 

0z NAM north again, and reduces snow totals further for LAF. Looks like a 4-8" spread from south to north in the county. Only about 20-30 miles left of wiggle room now, before well...yeah. Oh well. 

 

Enjoy the storm folks...and good luck to all. :)

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