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Fab February Banter


mackerel_sky

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Can the models have been this wrong this close to the event?  I mean these are drastic changes, not some 25 mile jump.  Probably wishcasting but I think it comes back south tomorrow.  I just don't see how the storm can cut directly into the source of the cold air unless something was being modeled wrong.  Was the cold air/low dewpoints overdone?  Is the storm in the NE not bombing out?  This is just an odd track for a storm.

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One particular solution doesn't matter. It's the trends that matter. Everything is coming north. That is likely to continue. Why would it not? This is following every other recent winter storm's playbook. We don't get southern tracking west to east systems anymore. Why is it next to impossible to get snow here?

We knew this was going to happen. I could never quite go all in on this one. Seasonal pattern FTL. We just HAVE to have blocking. Without it its just too hard.

Its pretty much how it looked a few days ago...a mix to start then transition to rain.

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Were we mostly rain on the ukie?

 

We start out with a thump of snow.  Hard to tell how much with the 12-hr pane being the only available.  By hr 60, I'm rain and you're on the edge between rain and freezing rain with a crap ton of precip in between.

 

We'd probably get enough snow out of it to verify the 2-4/5" forecast some of our local mets are saying now.

 

 

Anyone know when the ukmet is typically available on weatherbell? 

 

Usually around 2:30-3:30 AM, though be aware that it never was available last night for some reason, so it's no guarantee.

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We start out with a thump of snow.  Hard to tell how much with the 12-hr pane being the only available.  By hr 60, I'm rain and you're on the edge between rain and freezing rain.

Hard for me to believe that it would go that far north. Euro will be interesting.

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Hard for me to believe that it would go that far north. Euro will be interesting.

 

Frankly, I doubt it does.  It is encouraging in a way that we'd probably do okay (well, until the rain washes it away, but I can't be picky) with such a seemingly terrible setup.

 

The Euro will hopefully provide more clarity.  Hopefully, it stays the course and doesn't jump north.  I know I'll be nervous...

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Frankly, I doubt it does.  It is encouraging in a way that we'd probably do okay (well, until the rain washes it away, but I can't be picky) with such a seemingly terrible setup.

 

The Euro will hopefully provide more clarity.  Hopefully, it stays the course and doesn't jump north.  I know I'll be nervous...

I'm kinda leaning with the gfs right now. 

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Frankly, I doubt it does.  It is encouraging in a way that we'd probably do okay (well, until the rain washes it away, but I can't be picky) with such a seemingly terrible setup.

 

The Euro will hopefully provide more clarity.  Hopefully, it stays the course and doesn't jump north.  I know I'll be nervous...

If the Euro goes north any from it's 12z run I say over for most of us.... By over I mean major winter storm

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