Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You weren't around the Carolinas in the 80s? Lived in Rocky Mount for part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm in the SE part of the county, but I don't think it makesuch diff in this case. Just want to see a couple of inches of snow fall and then stay frozen after that. That would be a satisfactory winter storm. Ain't happening, mark my words, 25-50 mile shift north from tonight's run we see frzn to rain. Tonight GFS/CMC is showing 1" snow to 1" sleet to 0.5" frzn. It shifted 100 miles just with today's runs, we got 48 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Any red flags on the Gem, James? It's really not a good run for RDU as far as snow. Lots of IP, though. It came north in line with the rest of the modeling, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This thing is clearly trending north. Another 50-100 miles north and there probably isn't even a sleet pellet in the upstate. There is a very real possibility of this. In fact, with the continued weakening of the MA high and the great lakes low pulling things North, I could see tomorrows runs doing just that. I suppose there is stil a chance this could drift back south a few miles, but this is quickly turning into a mid-West/ Mid-Atlantic snow event. If anyone invents a time machine I'd like to go back to JAN 88 please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not at the surface. http://i.imgur.c.png http://i.imgur.com/fqKpng That's the average of the last 48 forecasts, the trend has been to torch the first half of March the last few runs. As you posted we are seasonal 2nd week of March, temps in the mid 60's for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There's the UK killing us. Game over. You were right, Pack. Minor winter event for the Triangle. Just enough to ruin the shutout. Still don't know how you drive a system straight into an arctic aimass, but whatever screws us, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There's the UK killing us. Game over. You were right, Pack. Minor winter event for the Triangle. Just enough to ruin the shutout. Still don't know how you drive a system straight into an arctic aimass, but whatever screws us, I suppose. The back side of the UK could be interesting, idk. Also it just absolutely crushes Boston so it's probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There's the UK killing us. Game over. You were right, Pack. Minor winter event for the Triangle. Just enough to ruin the shutout. Still don't know how you drive a system straight into an arctic aimass, but whatever screws us, I suppose. Nice 40-degree rain there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ^ Yeah, that's awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ^ Yeah, that's awful. I think we toss it until there's more support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How is the Greenville, SC area looking ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So what happened with the models today? Somebody catch me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think we lost pack... Not sure what to think at this point. The UKMET has absolutely led the way for days. Has its wheels fell off? Toss it until we see other models jump closer to its solution? This morning I was 100 miles too far north. This evening I'm close to jackpot. Tomorrow morning will I be too far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is a brutal hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There's the UK killing us. Game over. You were right, Pack. Minor winter event for the Triangle. Just enough to ruin the shutout. Still don't know how you drive a system straight into an arctic aimass, but whatever screws us, I suppose. Not even a minor event, it's over, like I said back in Dec, we will not get accumulating snow. LOL. With us being at all time low for 10 year running seasonal snowfall then you have a bust like this at 48 hours out.....3 out of the past 4 winters dreadful, 7 of 11 dreadful, longest drought in 130 years between 10" seasons....I got to find a new hobby. Not mad, frustrated but I am happy we are almost done with winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So what happened with the models today? Somebody catch me up! models are totally unreliable and useless outside of 24 hours. That's what we learned today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think we lost pack... Not sure what to think at this point. The UKMET has absolutely led the way for days. Has its wheels fell off? Toss it until we see other models jump closer to its solution? This morning I was 100 miles too far north. This evening I'm close to jackpot. Tomorrow morning will I be too far south? I think we toss it for now pending the Euro. Of course, tomorrow morning's runs could easily go to hell, regardless. I'm going to be pissed if the UKMET is on the mark... The local mets are all honking this winter storm now, so if it busts and we get rain there's going to be hell to pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think we toss it until there's more support... One particular solution doesn't matter. It's the trends that matter. Everything is coming north. That is likely to continue. Why would it not? This is following every other recent winter storm's playbook. We don't get southern tracking west to east systems anymore. Why is it next to impossible to get snow here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How is the Greenville, SC area looking ? Icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think we toss it for now pending the Euro. Of course, tomorrow morning's runs could easily go to hell, regardless. I'm going to be pissed if the UKMET is on the mark... The local mets are all honking this winter storm now, so if it busts and we get rain there's going to be hell to pay. I would think even with that track that WNC would still do well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Icy. Same for Dawsonville Gainesville ga area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think we toss it for now pending the Euro. Of course, tomorrow morning's runs could easily go to hell, regardless. I'm going to be pissed if the UKMET is on the mark... The local mets are all honking this winter storm now, so if it busts and we get rain there's going to be hell to pay. Ours too. It's a stone cold lock that the Euro is coming north. There's zero chance it won't. Zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The UK has a big positive, no ice, rather it rain then ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 So what happened with the models today? Somebody catch me up!Letter before g and letter before v! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 models are totally unreliable and useless outside of 24 hours. That's what we learned today. Well, verification scores have got to take a hit after this. There are some drastic changes in sensible weather over large areas of the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So what happened with the models today? Somebody catch me up! In short: Complete Nightmare Luckily these models can't be trusted at the moment. There's still time for the trends to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Icy. Maybe just wet - this one is getting away fast. RIght now I'd take a dusting a call it a day. Upstate SC - the MIAMI of the Mid South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would think even with that track that WNC would still do well? Probably so. You all would mix, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So what happened with the models today? Somebody catch me up! Starting at 18z, everything began to move north. We are now about 250 miles further north with everything and people in VA are getting really nervous about all of the rain they are about to receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Starting at 18z, everything began to move north. We are now about 250 miles further north with everything and people in VA are getting really nervous about all of the rain they are about to receive. But Bostonites are prepping for a much needed snowfall - heard they've been in a bit of a drought lately. New England reminds me of Wall Street - the rich keep getting richer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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