Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the NAM has a bias for over amplifying things, would that mean the temps it shows are too warm? If it is really overamped, then yeah, probably too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC Page Liked · 45 mins · Why so much uncertainty still for Tuesday’s forecast? The image below shows several possible scenarios for the daytime Tuesday, based on 4 different models that were generated early Saturday morning. The blue lines show sea level pressure, black lines help depict upper level winds and temps, and the background image conveys moisture availability. While it’s not depicted in this image, right now, nearly all models show some light snow accumulation occurring across much of central North Carolina Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The real forecast challenge is what happens during the daytime Tuesday, and that’s where the models are still having trouble, as shown in the image. The best-case scenario is that the storm and the bulk of the moisture stays farther offshore, which would mean very light additional snow accumulations for the eastern Piedmont. The worst-case scenario is that the storm hugs the coast, and delivers heavy snow across the western Piedmont and a wintry mess of snow, freezing rain, and/or rain across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If it is really overamped, then yeah, probably too warm. Thanks. That is what I thought. Hope it is and the GFS and Euro blend will end up being right. I would like more snow than ice like the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks. That is what I thought. Hope it is and the GFS and Euro blend will end up being right. I would like more snow than ice like the NAM shows.Ice storms are cooler than snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks. That is what I thought. Hope it is and the GFS and Euro blend will end up being right. I would like more snow than ice like the NAM shows. I was kinda hoping for a cold beer and cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 While you guys are enjoying an ice storm/ snowstorm or whatever is coming out the sky, I'll be down here cooking in the mid 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was kinda hoping for a cold beer and cold rain Cold Rain? He's around here somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sup! Sup. Snow Cream for those that forgot... Sleet does not work that well, sorry Brick. Start with a large bowl of clean snow (No yellow snow or bird poop) 1 cup of Irish whiskey 1 cup of of cream 1 can of condensed milk A couple tablespoons of chocolate milk mix (the liquid kind) And if you have it, a little bit of coconut extract. Put everything in the blender for about a minute, then put in the fridge or freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Cold Rain? He's around here somewhere.You've been gone too long, it's rain cold now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You've been gone too long, it's rain cold now That's elsewhere... Here it's Cold Rain ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Anyone know what the deal is with the 0z UKMET on WB? That's like the only place I can get a good look at the UK so it's a little disappointing to have it not show up at this particular time. No clue. Kind of frustrating. At least the new run will be out soon and a lot of it will be within 72 hours, so it will be on Meteocentre, so we won't have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 About time for a storm mode , up in this piece! I'm in storm mode already , got two gallons of milk, 4 gallons of moonshine, ready to watch a cold rain, with a few sleet pellets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sup. Snow Cream for those that forgot... Sleet does not work that well, sorry Brick. Start with a large bowl of clean snow (No yellow snow or bird poop) 1 cup of Irish whiskey 1 cup of of cream 1 can of condensed milk A couple tablespoons of chocolate milk mix (the liquid kind) And if you have it, a little bit of coconut extract. Put everything in the blender for about a minute, then put in the fridge or freezer. Haha! Irish Whiskey in snow cream! After eating that, you prolly won't care much about what's falling outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 About time for a storm mode , up in this piece! I'm in storm mode already , got two gallons of milk, 4 gallons of moonshine, ready to watch a cold rain, with a few sleet pellets It's Storm Commode in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's Storm Commode in the SE. How much for ATL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Could someone tell me precip amounts for my area? Im out of town and dont have computer access Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 About time for a storm mode , up in this piece! I'm in storm mode already , got two gallons of milk, 4 gallons of moonshine, ready to watch a cold rain, with a few sleet pellets It's comin How much for ATL? snowstorm(and others) are pushing their luck........I'm already tired of deleting stoopidy in the pinned thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How much for ATL? 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Could someone tell me precip amounts for my area? Im out of town and dont have computer access For Reidsville: NAM: Close to an inch and still rippin' at hr 84. GFS: 0.25-0.5" through the end of the storm. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS is ok for me but dangerously close to a flizzard. Honestly I'm just as interested in the 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is absolutely insane. Frozen ground before the event, build up a snowpack and an arctic blast behind the event. This is like sitting on 20 in blackjack and getting an ace to get to 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS is ok for me but dangerously close to a flizzard. Honestly I'm just as interested in the 2nd storm. 0.5" QPF for us. Surprised me it was that high. Wouldn't be horrible. At least it's all-snow. I'll take NAM precip with GFS temps, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS has a GL low instead of that nice high for the 2nd storm. Looks like it'll be warm. edit: Well verbatim it isn't but I can't imagine the cold hanging on with that look. It does get warm after a few inches. What I'm taking from it is that the GFS has a storm in that time period for now. I don't think there's much else to take note of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For Reidsville: NAM: Close to an inch and still rippin' at hr 84. GFS: 0.25-0.5" through the end of the storm. Take your pick. I known I shouldn't be disappointed but I am. I was thinking this might have been a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0.5" QPF for us. Surprised me it was that high. Wouldn't be horrible. At least it's all-snow. I'll take NAM precip with GFS temps, though! 50 miles to your north, I go from 6-10" on the 12z/18z/0z/6z to 0.1" on today's 12z lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Those who canceled winter early making their way back up the cliff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think I'm about ready to say 3-6" for my area with mostly snow. Everything seems to be converging on something in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think I'm about ready to say 3-6" for my area with mostly snow. Everything seems to be converging on something in that range. Agreed. I think that's a good forecast at this point. There's room for downside or upside, but I'd have to think 3-6" is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 While you guys are enjoying an ice storm/ snowstorm or whatever is coming out the sky, I'll be down here cooking in the mid 70s. Make sure to post a pic in your bikini. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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