buckeyefan1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know right?! I feel like the GFS solution is the most likely outcome right now and have for the last couple of days...regarding p-types, I mean. They all have given mby mostly rain.....that's usually what ends up happening, so it's a pretty good bet I agree, the west coast ridge is a little west of where we ideally want it, anything amped up will track like that. Why I was never worried of a miss the SE. I am out, bring on the rain. Someone wake Brick up let him know the event is cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 waycross snow on the 18Z GFS from a clipper on 2/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I officially endorse "The Big One Redux"... got 50lbs of Ice Melt todayThere's about 165 lbs of ice melt in Waycross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 waycross snow on the 18Z GFS from a clipper on 2/20. now we know this run is high as a kite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Look at all that nice WAA http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021318/gfs_T2m_seus_17.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I feel like the GFS solution is the most likely outcome right now and have for the last couple of days...regarding p-types, I mean.Man, quit talking that gobbly gook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Look at all that nice WAA http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021318/gfs_T2m_seus_17.png Something's off on that run ! We aren't going to see 34 or higher for a week after Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Let it be known... if that 18z GFS solution verifies I'll buy everyone in the SE Forum a gift card for dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Let it be known... if that 18z GFS solution verifies I'll buy everyone in the SE Forum a gift card for dinner.Deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The gfs is all by itself as far as how warm it is at the surface. It continues to completely ignore the single digit dewpoints in place before precip starts and shows essentially NO evaporational cooling to speak of which is absolutely absurd. It has precip arriving here monday morning. Surface temps are below freezing..yet despite dewpoints as low as sub ZERO in most areas, there is essentially NO temp drop. in fact temps RISE after precip starts. I'll kiss every ass on this board if that verifies. I mean look at this..dewpoints at 06z and 12z monday. Precip arrives between 12z and 15z....yet temps rise to the mid 30s. Ideally we would like to see heavier precip than it's showing to fully take advantage of the low dewpoints/dry airmass but even though the initial precip is light, it's virtually impossible to see temps rise with wetbulbs so low and dewpoint depressions so high. And the fact is these dry and cold conditions exist throughout the ENTIRE boundary layer..its' not just the surface..so there is no basis at all for not seeing a temp drop. i think i can safely say you can toss it's surface temps in the garbage throughout this system. Let it be known... if that 18z GFS solution verifies I'll buy everyone in the SE Forum a gift card for dinner. Wow!! Dinner and a show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Deal! And you know I'm a man of my word... and maybe of a second mortgage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Let it be known... if that 18z GFS solution verifies I'll buy everyone in the SE Forum a gift card for dinner. I think it ticks NW from there, so no deal :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So is the 18z Navgem north, south, or the same as the last run regarding the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 And you know I'm a man of my word... and maybe of a second mortgage.Do they have gift cards to Twin Tops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So is the 18z Navgem north, south, or the same as the last run regarding the track? A tick stronger, it would be a buffet of frozen for us, verbatim. This event is dead to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Do they have gift cards to Twin Tops? LOL... the site I get restaurant gift certificates from is certain places that change monthly depending on region. So I can't testify to what's listed right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 A tick stronger, it would be a buffet of frozen for us, verbatim. This event is dead to me. Good deal. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And jb talking up the 18z for the mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Good deal. Thanks man. I do have a sense we will not see a pure snow event in the Triangle for some reason. How much mixing though I don't know. That said, I do not believe the gfs as it has moved all over the place while other models have been fairly steady or certainly not full of wild mood swings anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hey does anyone have a sounding for gso on the 18z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think it ticks NW from there, so no deal :-) I'm not worried right now. I was fairly freaked out by how north the 0z UK was and I was very relieved to see it move south somewhat at 12z. The GFS has been all over the map the last 2 days. I think most of us knew this thing was coming north at some point, it was always just a question of how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I noticed some of the local ATL mets and the NWS have been slowly banging the drums on snow possibilities Thursday next week as well...Kinda surprised tbh. I knew the GFS was apparently showing this, were any of the other global models showing this? EDIT: I looked at the Cobb Bufkit data for the 12z GFS a couple of hours ago, there was a 17:1 snow ratio during the onset of the precip Monday. Don't remember how much precip was said to be falling at the time, I'll have to go back and check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hey does anyone have a sounding for gso on the 18z gfs? Plenty of room to spare The next sounding they had was 108h but it's like flurries by then. I would imagine we get some mixed crap between 96 and 108. Date: 4 day AVN valid 18Z TUE 17 FEB 15 Station: 36.08,-79.95 Latitude: 36.08 Longitude: -79.95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 106 SFC 986 221 -0.3 -0.8 97 0.4 -0.5 75 5 273.9 274.5 273.3 283.9 3.66 2 950 515 -2.5 -2.6 99 0.1 -2.5 93 11 274.7 275.2 273.3 283.8 3.32 3 900 946 -1.1 -1.2 99 0.2 -1.2 157 13 280.4 281.1 277.3 291.2 3.88 4 850 1403 -0.2 -0.4 99 0.2 -0.3 191 24 285.9 286.7 280.6 298.4 4.38 5 800 1888 -0.8 -0.9 99 0.1 -0.9 203 36 290.2 291.0 282.7 303.1 4.46 6 750 2402 -2.8 -2.9 99 0.1 -2.9 212 42 293.6 294.3 283.7 305.7 4.12 7 700 2947 -4.9 -5.0 99 0.1 -5.0 218 42 297.1 297.8 284.7 308.3 3.76 8 650 3528 -7.0 -7.2 99 0.2 -7.1 216 47 301.0 301.7 285.9 311.5 3.43 9 600 4150 -9.3 -9.5 99 0.2 -9.4 223 55 305.4 306.0 287.1 315.1 3.11 10 550 4820 -12.2 -12.3 99 0.1 -12.2 234 65 309.7 310.2 288.2 318.3 2.70 11 500 5544 -16.1 -16.3 99 0.1 -16.2 237 71 313.4 313.8 288.9 320.4 2.15 12 450 6329 -21.3 -21.3 100 0.0 -21.2 236 77 316.5 316.8 289.3 321.7 1.55 13 400 7188 -27.4 -27.5 100 0.0 -27.5 236 84 319.3 319.5 289.6 322.8 1.00 14 350 8135 -34.5 -34.5 100 -0.0 -34.5 236 95 322.2 322.3 290.0 324.3 0.59 15 300 9191 -43.7 -43.7 100 -0.0 -43.7 240 104 323.7 323.7 290.2 324.7 0.26 16 250 10384 -55.3 -55.4 99 0.0 -55.4 246 108 323.8 323.8 290.0 324.1 0.08 17 200 11787 -59.2 -63.3 59 4.1 -59.2 259 137 339.1 339.1 294.1 339.2 0.04 18 150 13587 -60.3 -80.4 5 20.1 -60.5 256 132 366.1 366.1 299.9 366.2 0.00 19 100 16080 -64.9 -83.7 6 18.9 -65.0 255 90 402.4 402.4 305.5 402.4 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 And jb talking up the 18z for the mid Atlantic.Gotta make that chedda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks Dunkman. I dont mind this look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Don't like these trends at all! My back yard , about an hour ago! Looks like 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And jb talking up the 18z for the mid Atlantic. He can't possibly and remotely think the 18z GFS is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man, i thought it was supposed to be 'cold' here today..LOL 42/23 hi/lo.... thats not cold. its amazing what just a couple hundred miles can do. Back home it was 27/11. Thats what i think of as ' cold'... Its like friggin impossible to have a high of 32 or below here..amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man, i thought it was supposed to be 'cold' here today..LOL 42/23 hi/lo.... thats not cold. its amazing what just a couple hundred miles can do. Back home it was 27/11. Thats what i think of as ' cold'... Its like friggin impossible to have a high of 32 or below here..amazing. We only get a couple days a winter, at most, with highs at or below freezing. Usually when that happens we have snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So, are we feeling good about this, or should we get the towel ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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