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Fab February Banter


mackerel_sky

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This is a post from the mid atlantic forum.  I know some of you aren't happy with the time restraints on storm threads, but I'm glad we avoided this.

 

 

To put this nightmare of a winter in context, here are the threads for our various "threats" (starting with the Thanksgiving dealie):

http://www.americanw...ng-eve-coastal/ (day before Thanksgiving)

http://www.americanw...ec-9-10-threat/  (Dec. 9/10)

http://www.americanw...1-storm-thread/ (Dec. 19/20)

http://www.americanw...2-icing-threat/ (12/22 icing "threat")

http://www.americanw...reat-santabomb/ (Santa)

http://www.americanw...305-16-clipper/ (1/6 - the clipper that actually kinda performed)

http://www.americanw...-snow-discoobs/ (1/12 - 1/14)

http://www.americanw...clipper-thread/ (1/21)

http://www.americanw...n-23-24-anyone/ (1/23 - 1/24)

http://www.americanw...n-23-24-anyone/ (1/25 - 1/26 - the first "congrats Boston")

http://www.americanw...the-sky-thread/ (1/29 - 1/30)

http://www.americanw...548-feb-12-obs/ (2/1 - 2/2)

http://www.americanw...feb-5-6-threat/ (2/5 - 2/6)

That's 13 separate "events" or "threats" of "events" that drew threads. For my backyard, the sum total is one pity WSW that was up for about two hours before reverting to an advisory. I am at around 7 inches for the year.

Just a frickin' nightmare from one end to the other.

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This entire winter season has just been remarkable.   There really hasn't been any flip flopping from the runs all year, they flip one way (warmer and rainier), and stay that way.  The only guessing game is when the change in the models is, we all know its going to happen every time.

 

Edit:  We all knew this was going to fail when it showed snow in Nashville.  :sizzle:

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This entire winter season has just been remarkable. There really hasn't been any flip flopping from the runs all year, they flip one way (warmer and rainier), and stay that way. The only guessing game is when the change in the models is, we all know its going to happen every time.

I disagree, ive seen the worst disagreement with the euro/gfs in a long time. Especially in the LR. It goes from one extreme to another. Several mets have also commented on the poor performance.

Edit: Compared with years past.

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Guys I got to get this off my chest, delete it mods if it is too harsh but please don't ban me, this winter is absolutely bs, it's over its freaking over, forget it and what makes it worse is the dumb models giving us false hope, Ive lost hope in weather, this has never happened, it's not pessimistic it is reality, so as I have fallen off the cliff, I did six feet to bury my hopes

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Guys I got to get this off my chest, delete it mods if it is too harsh but please don't ban me, this winter is absolutely bs, it's over its freaking over, forget it and what makes it worse is the dumb models giving us false hope, Ive lost hope in weather, this has never happened, it's not pessimistic it is reality, so as I have fallen off the cliff, I did six feet to bury my hopes

 

Just don't keep repeating it and we're good.  You have a lot of company.

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The "I wouldn't write anything off rule in the SE". It kinda makes me wonder here lately, with the models thats the only thing you can do is write it off,cause it aint happening. Ive been criticized in the past but until we get some blocking to keep these things from cutting i just dont see it.

I'm one of the most optimistic here but I had a feeling the models would do this to the SE folks which is why I was trying to offer ideas earlier today to not get your hopes up, but grit said it wasn't my job (which he's right)...To offer some hope, though, there is ~10x more spread in the 18z ensemble members than the 12z members...which can only mean one thing to me, this storm isn't written off yet. Also you can almost write off that mean most likely.

 

We have 7 days of model watching to go. It's important to not hang on each model run that comes out every 6 hours or you'll be disappointed at least half the time. The verification scores for ALL Models, even the Doc, is terrible at this range...absolutely dreadful. We just have to wait and watch and hope the snow gods give us a chance, but just as the Day 10 period looked impossible for snow a day or two ago, it comes around today showing us a solution that isn't incredibly whacky it's just not supported yet.

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Guys I got to get this off my chest, delete it mods if it is too harsh but please don't ban me, this winter is absolutely bs, it's over its freaking over, forget it and what makes it worse is the dumb models giving us false hope, Ive lost hope in weather, this has never happened, it's not pessimistic it is reality, so as I have fallen off the cliff, I did six feet to bury my hopes

 :(     :hug:

 

:wub:  :wub:

:wub:  

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Guys I got to get this off my chest, delete it mods if it is too harsh but please don't ban me, this winter is absolutely bs, it's over its freaking over, forget it and what makes it worse is the dumb models giving us false hope, Ive lost hope in weather, this has never happened, it's not pessimistic it is reality, so as I have fallen off the cliff, I did six feet to bury my hopes

I mean yeah. If its over its over. The spring and summer is awesome. Enjoy memorial day, the 4th, labor day, fall football and before you know it you will be model watching again.

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So how much for Spartanburg? :lmao:

 

In all seriousness I bet tomorrow...hell maybe tonight, we are going to praying this trends in a better direction after the models turns this into a cutter and torches.  I've seen this story too many times this winter.  I'll get more excited when this gets under 4 days away. :underthewx:

 

 

Called it!  BOOM!  :axe:  :weep:

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What's amazing is people still believing day 7+ Op model runs that don't have ensemble support. People falling off the cliff now are the same ones that have been lecturing all winter that things look great, LOL.

To be fair the 7 day model runs with ensemble support haven't been any better.

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or 5 day. I have had a couple of those.

I don't recall anything inside 5 days that had both Op/ENS support with both GFS/Euro. We haven't been close to anything at all, last time that occurred in a winter for MBY was 2006. I don't see anything that suggests we will all of a sudden start seeing supressed storm tracks without blocking.

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I don't recall anything inside 5 days that had both Op/ENS support with both GFS/Euro. We haven't been close to anything at all, last time that occurred in a winter for MBY was 2006. I don't see anything that suggests we will all of a sudden start seeing supressed storm tracks without blocking.

When they converge on a Boston 12-18 inches solution, we will know they are dialed in! :(
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