buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 All chicks have issues. Hot or not, it's just how much garbage you're willing to put up with. That being said, I'm sure the roles can easily be reversed if you ask the right any woman. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Oh well, looks like the cold may be gone on the 18z GFS. The snow next week will probably be gone too. The snowless winter goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Cutter FTW... always finds a way!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 How many times this winter has the 12z runs gotten us excited to be only disappointed following the 18z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I guess now we can all go back to our spring landscaping plans.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 this year 72 hours. 96, 72, won't matter, this threat will die long before that, LOL. HM is tweeting analog Marches for strong PDO...early spring here we come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 What threat? Rain? There is nothing of interest next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This is a post from the mid atlantic forum. I know some of you aren't happy with the time restraints on storm threads, but I'm glad we avoided this. To put this nightmare of a winter in context, here are the threads for our various "threats" (starting with the Thanksgiving dealie):http://www.americanw...ng-eve-coastal/ (day before Thanksgiving)http://www.americanw...ec-9-10-threat/ (Dec. 9/10)http://www.americanw...1-storm-thread/ (Dec. 19/20)http://www.americanw...2-icing-threat/ (12/22 icing "threat")http://www.americanw...reat-santabomb/ (Santa)http://www.americanw...305-16-clipper/ (1/6 - the clipper that actually kinda performed)http://www.americanw...-snow-discoobs/ (1/12 - 1/14)http://www.americanw...clipper-thread/ (1/21)http://www.americanw...n-23-24-anyone/ (1/23 - 1/24)http://www.americanw...n-23-24-anyone/ (1/25 - 1/26 - the first "congrats Boston")http://www.americanw...the-sky-thread/ (1/29 - 1/30)http://www.americanw...548-feb-12-obs/ (2/1 - 2/2)http://www.americanw...feb-5-6-threat/ (2/5 - 2/6)That's 13 separate "events" or "threats" of "events" that drew threads. For my backyard, the sum total is one pity WSW that was up for about two hours before reverting to an advisory. I am at around 7 inches for the year.Just a frickin' nightmare from one end to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Im sure well see many solutions by by sunday. Im not worried or suprised just "meh". I wouldn't be all bipolar from one run to another, we all know things flip flop like a fish. An this is a weather fourm of coarse were going to post clown maps whether it verifys or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I guess now we can all go back to our spring landscaping plans.... the storm next week will be back guys I see the nc mtns. getting a nice snowstorm. I just feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Just like 2011-2012. Like I said before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Our artic outbreak broke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This entire winter season has just been remarkable. There really hasn't been any flip flopping from the runs all year, they flip one way (warmer and rainier), and stay that way. The only guessing game is when the change in the models is, we all know its going to happen every time. Edit: We all knew this was going to fail when it showed snow in Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The "I wouldn't write anything off rule in the SE". It kinda makes me wonder here lately, with the models thats the only thing you can do is write it off,cause it aint happening. Ive been criticized in the past but until we get some blocking to keep these things from cutting i just dont see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This entire winter season has just been remarkable. There really hasn't been any flip flopping from the runs all year, they flip one way (warmer and rainier), and stay that way. The only guessing game is when the change in the models is, we all know its going to happen every time.I disagree, ive seen the worst disagreement with the euro/gfs in a long time. Especially in the LR. It goes from one extreme to another. Several mets have also commented on the poor performance.Edit: Compared with years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Guys I got to get this off my chest, delete it mods if it is too harsh but please don't ban me, this winter is absolutely bs, it's over its freaking over, forget it and what makes it worse is the dumb models giving us false hope, Ive lost hope in weather, this has never happened, it's not pessimistic it is reality, so as I have fallen off the cliff, I did six feet to bury my hopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Guys I got to get this off my chest, delete it mods if it is too harsh but please don't ban me, this winter is absolutely bs, it's over its freaking over, forget it and what makes it worse is the dumb models giving us false hope, Ive lost hope in weather, this has never happened, it's not pessimistic it is reality, so as I have fallen off the cliff, I did six feet to bury my hopes Just don't keep repeating it and we're good. You have a lot of company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The "I wouldn't write anything off rule in the SE". It kinda makes me wonder here lately, with the models thats the only thing you can do is write it off,cause it aint happening. Ive been criticized in the past but until we get some blocking to keep these things from cutting i just dont see it. I'm one of the most optimistic here but I had a feeling the models would do this to the SE folks which is why I was trying to offer ideas earlier today to not get your hopes up, but grit said it wasn't my job (which he's right)...To offer some hope, though, there is ~10x more spread in the 18z ensemble members than the 12z members...which can only mean one thing to me, this storm isn't written off yet. Also you can almost write off that mean most likely. We have 7 days of model watching to go. It's important to not hang on each model run that comes out every 6 hours or you'll be disappointed at least half the time. The verification scores for ALL Models, even the Doc, is terrible at this range...absolutely dreadful. We just have to wait and watch and hope the snow gods give us a chance, but just as the Day 10 period looked impossible for snow a day or two ago, it comes around today showing us a solution that isn't incredibly whacky it's just not supported yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Sooo....hot chicks have issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This winter its going to come down to finger crossing moreso than model watching for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Guys I got to get this off my chest, delete it mods if it is too harsh but please don't ban me, this winter is absolutely bs, it's over its freaking over, forget it and what makes it worse is the dumb models giving us false hope, Ive lost hope in weather, this has never happened, it's not pessimistic it is reality, so as I have fallen off the cliff, I did six feet to bury my hopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Best way I have been able to predict this winter is to look at the first three days of my local point and click forecast and ignore everything any model says, anytime and for any period outside of 72 hours. Been pretty dang accurate! I wish I had my tax dollars back. These model runs blow chunks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Guys I got to get this off my chest, delete it mods if it is too harsh but please don't ban me, this winter is absolutely bs, it's over its freaking over, forget it and what makes it worse is the dumb models giving us false hope, Ive lost hope in weather, this has never happened, it's not pessimistic it is reality, so as I have fallen off the cliff, I did six feet to bury my hopes I mean yeah. If its over its over. The spring and summer is awesome. Enjoy memorial day, the 4th, labor day, fall football and before you know it you will be model watching again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 What's amazing is people still believing day 7+ Op model runs that don't have ensemble support. People falling off the cliff now are the same ones that have been lecturing all winter that things look great, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 So how much for Spartanburg? In all seriousness I bet tomorrow...hell maybe tonight, we are going to praying this trends in a better direction after the models turns this into a cutter and torches. I've seen this story too many times this winter. I'll get more excited when this gets under 4 days away. Called it! BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What's amazing is people still believing day 7+ Op model runs that don't have ensemble support. People falling off the cliff now are the same ones that have been lecturing all winter that things look great, LOL. To be fair the 7 day model runs with ensemble support haven't been any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 The models can't even get cold right! Awesome! Good week to be out of town CR, you'll be back in time for 5 degrees below normal on Friday, then cutter on Tuesday ! Maybe see if you can get to Flagstaff while you are out there, maybe your only shot to see snow all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 To be fair the 7 day model runs with ensemble support haven't been any better.or 5 day. I have had a couple of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 or 5 day. I have had a couple of those. I don't recall anything inside 5 days that had both Op/ENS support with both GFS/Euro. We haven't been close to anything at all, last time that occurred in a winter for MBY was 2006. I don't see anything that suggests we will all of a sudden start seeing supressed storm tracks without blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 I don't recall anything inside 5 days that had both Op/ENS support with both GFS/Euro. We haven't been close to anything at all, last time that occurred in a winter for MBY was 2006. I don't see anything that suggests we will all of a sudden start seeing supressed storm tracks without blocking.When they converge on a Boston 12-18 inches solution, we will know they are dialed in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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