superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 When? The "ice storm" doesn't count.No, it dropped 10-12" for much of NC on one run in an overrunning event with the last cutter, IIRC (just a little off, LOL).That said, I do think the model criticisms are somewhat unfair. On a global scale, they're better than they ever have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 No, it dropped 10-12" for much of NC on one run in an overrunning event with the last cutter, IIRC (just a little off, LOL). That said, I do think the model criticisms are somewhat unfair. On a global scale, they're better than they ever have been. That was past 144 hours I believe and it was only one run lol. Now if it was like 3 runs, then that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 That was past 144 hours I believe and it was only one run lol. Now if it was like 3 runs, then that's a different story. Yes, most of the Euro fantasy snowstorms this year have been only one run, which is why I said "one-off." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 No they haven't. No they haven't what? All the winter events shown this year where 240 or more. False. The ice storm only gave you guys big expectations because of what the NAM was showing and some fell for that. The GFS nailed that event. I would like for you to find something this winter where the models did bad inside day 7. You just provided an example of where a model didn't do well for a particular event. The missed NY snow was another. So now you can't say "models". You have to now talk about specific models. In my opinion, those errors are reasonable and often happen within the context of model forecasts every year. Furthermore, I am not going to go back and look at every rain event that has happened in order to determine whether or not the models did well with amounts and placement. Nor am I going to go back and look at 3/5/7 day temp forecasts and see how well or how badly they did. My general conclusion, just based on perception is that the models have done no better this year than last year or the year before that. Maybe it's not fair for me to use 100 degree days as an example. But you also can't say that because they haven't shown snowstorms that haven't verified, they have done well. It's not that simple. That's my point. Inside of 5 days, they have been fine...no better, no worse, than previous years. Outside of 5 days, they have been terrible. Outside of 10 days, they have been beyond useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So glad nothing is going on right now...I probably can't look at models much until after Monday, so. many. exams. I miss the days of undergrad where I'd average an exam every 2 weeks. Speaking of which, those young 21-22 year olds have no idea how good they got it - to the youngins on here that are doing meteorology: lay off the books for the first two-three years and go out and party...at least every other weekend, save the studying for Differential Equations I feel bad for folks in grad school who never "partied" because they were too worried about keeping a 4.0 GPA to do so....now a lot of them regret it, generally speaking...anyway, that turned into a soap box but just know college is about 70% good times and 30% studying! Grad school is 99% studying 1% good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Also, this reminded me of some in our little SE group we got: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think this is officially the low point for the SE forum. I didn't think winter could get any more boring, but this one takes the cake. Overcast, 41 degrees, and no hope in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Looks and feels like it could snow outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think Fishel wrote this article for one person in mind..."Don’t let significant, but nonetheless geographically isolated, events fool you. This winter has been very tame so far. " http://www.wral.com/greg-fishel-a-review-of-winter-so-far/14428632/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think this is officially the low point for the SE forum. I didn't think winter could get any more boring, but this one takes the cake. Overcast, 41 degrees, and no hope in sight. It's going to be tough to stay awake the next week or so, after that I think we will know if we are going to have chance at seeing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Looks and feels like it could snow outside. Iso, that's funny man. I was thinking the same. I was talking to my sister about 30 minutes ago and she said the exact same thing. Man, I wish the radar was lighting up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Iso, that's funny man. I was thinking the same. I was talking to my sister about 30 minutes ago and she said the exact same thing. Man, I wish the radar was lighting up!It's gonna be a Warm_snow, with temps in the 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It's gonna be a Warm_snow, with temps in the 40s We're above average for warm_snow this year, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It's gonna be a Warm_snow, with temps in the 40s Brick's gonna call you a troll.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 When? The "ice storm" doesn't count.it has shown a few for us here in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think this is officially the low point for the SE forum. I didn't think winter could get any more boring, but this one takes the cake. Overcast, 41 degrees, and no hope in sight. I dunno... it's way off in wonderland, but Fab Feb is looking cold and March looks possibly cold, too. We can make magic happen and avoid a shutout*, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I dunno... it's way off in wonderland, but Fab Feb is looking cold and March looks possibly cold, too. We can make magic happen and avoid a shutout*, I think. Yeah I'm sure we'll get a nice T or .03 inches or something. Like a nice pat on the head from your parents when you struck out losing the big game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yeah I'm sure we'll get a nice T or .03 inches or something. Like a nice pat on the head from your parents when you struck out losing the big game. Well, we've had a T here, which is why we have a shutout* as opposed to a shutout, but yes, that .03" will be nice to avoid the shutout*. So glad nothing is going on right now...I probably can't look at models much until after Monday, so. many. exams. I miss the days of undergrad where I'd average an exam every 2 weeks. Speaking of which, those young 21-22 year olds have no idea how good they got it - to the youngins on here that are doing meteorology: lay off the books for the first two-three years and go out and party...at least every other weekend, save the studying for Differential Equations I feel bad for folks in grad school who never "partied" because they were too worried about keeping a 4.0 GPA to do so....now a lot of them regret it, generally speaking...anyway, that turned into a soap box but just know college is about 70% good times and 30% studying! Grad school is 99% studying 1% good times. I still find time to waste time on this forum, but I mostly agree. Social life is basically DOA over the last eight months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Based on what Robert was saying today, look for the ridge to hopefully build far enough North that a system can dive under. Atlantic will just not change, according to DT with a PNA of +1.70 and QBO of -26.70, which is a record. Alan was saying, maybe we can get a March 1-2, 1980 with a + NAO. This winter may not be what we wanted, but that's what makes snow and ice storms special in the southeast. They are hard to get and when we get them, it's not when or how we thought we would get them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Getting closer to the 2 minute warning in winter and we can't even get into range for a 60yd field goal... should have deflated our balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Getting closer to the 2 minute warning in winter and we can't even get into range for a 60yd field goal... should have deflated our balls Realistically, we're nearing the end of the third quarter. Let's not blow it out of proportion. I've been a harsh critic of this pathetic winter, but I always get a kick out of people acting like it can't snow after mid-February or something, even when all the evidence points against that (not talking about the Deep South). Our realistic snow prospects go all the way until the first week of March, and even after that snow is possible, albeit fairly rare. At this point, we've got a good 4-5 weeks of decent climo left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Realistically, we're nearing the end of the third quarter. Let's not blow it out of proportion. I've been a harsh critic of this pathetic winter, but I always get a kick out of people acting like it can't snow after mid-February or something, even when all the evidence points against that (not talking about the Deep South). Our realistic snow prospects go all the way until the first week of March, and even after that snow is possible, albeit fairly rare. At this point, we've got a good 4-5 weeks of decent climo left. I think 4 weeks from today is realistic for snow chances, after first week of March it's really rare. We know its not going to snow for the next 8-10 days, so that leaves about 2 1/2 weeks for realistically getting snow (Feb 17-March 7). We are definitely into the home stretch, 18 day window to score an event...if there is an event the 17-19th and we miss that will leaves us with maybe one more shot, assuming the pattern doesn't break down. These southern stream systems take a few days to get together, come out and track to the east. Going to be tough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 March averages more snow than Dec for almost all cities in the southeast. I know my area averages more in April than November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Realistically, we're nearing the end of the third quarter. Let's not blow it out of proportion. I've been a harsh critic of this pathetic winter, but I always get a kick out of people acting like it can't snow after mid-February or something, even when all the evidence points against that (not talking about the Deep South). Our realistic snow prospects go all the way until the first week of March, and even after that snow is possible, albeit fairly rare. At this point, we've got a good 4-5 weeks of decent climo left. I know... just in one of those moods. I remember March '93, I'm a survivor! Awesome April FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 March averages more snow than Dec for almost all cities in the southeast. I know my area averages more in April than November. You guys defintely have more time, for my area after the first week of March it's very rare. We can get March 83 I guess, but that's the only one I can remember. We have plenty of early March events though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Poor Carrollton, it's time for snow is over! Their last chance for snow was Jan 15! They haven't had a snow over 4 inches in like 60 years, their avg high by now , has to be 70+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Forgive me if I don't jump for joy at the mention of superstorm 93! I was just west of CLT at the time, and look at the blockbuster total for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 ATL got 1.5" of SN on 4/25/1910! High was only 39!! Also, 1891, 1918, and 1987 in Cobb had accum. snow (one every 30 Aprils). ATL had had accum. snow in March some 20 times, or 1 every 6. And then we still have the last half of Feb. in a Nino. We've still got a long way to go. You know what Yogi would say, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 ATL got 1.5" of SN on 4/25/1910! High was only 39!! Also, 1891, 1918, and 1987 in Cobb had accum. snow (one every 30 Aprils). ATL had had accum. snow in March some 20 times, or 1 every 6. And then we still have the last half of Feb. in a Nino. We've still got a long way to go. You know what Yogi would say, "Another golden rule is: don't lose your cool. " Yogi Bear "Yogi's Gang: Lotta Litter (#1.12)" (1973) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I had to do a double take on my post from last year being upped... I was like "When the hell did I get drunk and start a thread for an event over a month from now" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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