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Fab February Banter


mackerel_sky

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As you know, Brian Shrader WRAL is ANTI SNOW. He has started an anti snow page>>>facebook.com/antisnowleague

WRAL Elizabeth Gardner LOVES a good snow. She has stared the PRO SNOW page facebook.com/SnowLoversLobby

Which camp do you fall in? Go like their pages to show your allegiance!

I like to fall into the fish camp!
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Ask NYC how they worked 2-3 days out !

 

They were bitching about a 50 mile swing in the LP center that shafted them... IMO it wasn't that big of a jump, it's just that 50 miles had huge implications....  The models pretty much nailed what happened they were just off on the placement by a touch.

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They were bitching about a 50 mile swing in the LP center that shafted them... IMO it wasn't that big of a jump, it's just that 50 miles had huge implications.... The models pretty much nailed what happened they were just off on the placement by a touch.

Lol! But you are correct. The models have performed pretty well this winter.
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They were bitching about a 50 mile swing in the LP center that shafted them... IMO it wasn't that big of a jump, it's just that 50 miles had huge implications....  The models pretty much nailed what happened they were just off on the placement by a touch.

 

 

Lol! But you are correct. The models have performed pretty well this winter.

Are we looking at an hourly chart, daily, weekly, monthly?

If you say the models haven't shown any snowstorms within 5 days, you'd be correct. If that's the litmus test for the models working well, then ok, they're working well. You could also say the models have shown no 100 degree days with 5 days, so therefore they're working well.

It's pretty common for the models to be generally correct about the general pattern within 3 days. It's also pretty common for them to be slightly off on SIGNIFICANT details that impact who gets snow and who gets rain or nothing within a day or even just a few hours.

The models have been horrible this year outside of 4/5 days. All of them.

I don't think they have been any worse or better in the short range than they usually are.

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They were bitching about a 50 mile swing in the LP center that shafted them... IMO it wasn't that big of a jump, it's just that 50 miles had huge implications.... The models pretty much nailed what happened they were just off on the placement by a touch.

Quite honestly, that's pretty much within the model noise range.

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If you say the models haven't shown any snowstorms within 5 days, you'd be correct. If that's the litmus test for the models working well, then ok, they're working well. You could also say the models have shown no 100 degree days with 5 days, so therefore they're working well.

 

That's a false dichotomy.  It's not the time of year for 100º days.

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Are we looking at an hourly chart, daily, weekly, monthly?

If you say the models haven't shown any snowstorms within 5 days, you'd be correct. If that's the litmus test for the models working well, then ok, they're working well. You could also say the models have shown no 100 degree days with 5 days, so therefore they're working well.

It's pretty common for the models to be generally correct about the general pattern within 3 days. It's also pretty common for them to be slightly off on SIGNIFICANT details that impact who gets snow and who gets rain or nothing within a day or even just a few hours.

The models have been horrible this year outside of 4/5 days. All of them.

I don't think they have been any worse or better in the short range than they usually are.

No they haven't. All the winter events shown this year where 240 or more. The ice storm only gave you guys big expectations because of what the NAM was showing and some fell for that. The GFS nailed that event. I would like for you to find something this winter where the models did bad inside day 7.
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I thought there were a couple of storms showing up at day 7 a couple of times for one run and then they went poof. But really it's hard to say they have been bad inside 7 days for us when there has been nothing inside 7 days to follow here. They have been good at showing something from 7 to 10 days out, and then disappearing right after 7 days.

 

It would be so much easier if nothing showed up on the models until 3 days out.  At least 5. Would be a lot less disappointment, and probably actually end up happening more often.

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No they haven't. All the winter events shown this year where 240 or more. The ice storm only gave you guys big expectations because of what the NAM was showing and some fell for that. The GFS nailed that event. I would like for you to find something this winter where the models did bad inside day 7.

The Euro has shown a few one-off fantasy snowstorms within 4-6 days, to be fair.

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