packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Robert posted on facebook that he thinks there wont be any snow in the sout east anytime soon.. it discouraging hearing it from him. but the truth will set you free Evident since early Dec, these winters happen, bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Heavenly ski resort in Lake Tahoe has 46 inches of snow through the end of Jan which is 24% of normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Once robert starts talking about a storm ill start listening.. Until then we need all the rain we can get. Being that there are more cotton,tobacco,corn and soybean fields than homes where i live.. this winter has been a blessing to the farmers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Thank god this winter didn't ruin my project for work. Just ready for days to get longer and it to get warm. Need to lose a solid 20 pounds this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Heavenly ski resort in Lake Tahoe has 46 inches of snow through the end of Jan which is 24% of normal That's bad news, especially for the summer water table in California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Heavenly ski resort in Lake Tahoe has 46 inches of snow through the end of Jan which is 24% of normal It will be another good year to hike the John Muir Trail - no mosquitoes come July/August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Its has probably cost alot to maintain the snow out west at ski resorts with the lack of natural snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 They need to build their snowpack in California or this summer will be a disaster. I was out there last August and it was shocking at how little snow was on the very highest peaks compared to earlier years. They have to be entering a 200 year drought - maybe even 500 year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 A cold pacific will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 EPS agrees with the GEFS on the ice box coming for the east in 11-15 day. I thought this map was interesting with how cold it is down to Mx... Nextt week it might be time to start another cold tracking thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 EPS agrees with the GEFS on the ice box coming for the east in 11-15 day. I thought this map was interesting with how cold it is down to Mx... Nextt week it might be time to start another cold tracking thread... so expect rain on day 10 and 16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Interesting writeup on why the GFS is so bloody cold... http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/west-pacific-tropical-cyclone-interaction-with-mid-latitudes-later-this-week/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 So what if: Convection along the Gulf (generated by the vort in the upper left) created a cyclonic potential vorticity anomaly, which would in turn result in wave amplification downstream and stronger westward moisture advection. The PV max would then merge with the developing offshore low, producing an instantly occluding, rapidly strengthening storm (top right), which would effectively draw in colder air (bottom right). We're only 48 hours away, ladies and gentlemen. Get your shovels ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Nice one CR and agree! Wonder what would happen if this was to close off day 6 or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Rossby wave and tropical cyclone recurve to save the winter!! With the GFS look, it would be cold and dry, and the GFS can't get a storm right here in the US , 3 days out, how is it picking up on a cyclone out in the Pacific to forecast 11-15 days out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Nice one CR and agree! Wonder what would happen if this was to close off day 6 or so.... I would be mad because I will be in Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Another win for the GFS over the Euro WRT the Thursday storm. You guys were doubting that upgrade and its kicking the Euro's butt! GFS ain't playin this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Rossby wave and tropical cyclone recurve to save the winter!! With the GFS look, it would be cold and dry, and the GFS can't get a storm right here in the US , 3 days out, how is it picking up on a cyclone out in the Pacific to forecast 11-15 days out ? LOL, good point. Sounds like a Nov repeat, recurving cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Another win for the GFS over the Euro WRT the Thursday storm. You guys were doubting that upgrade and its kicking the Euro's butt! GFS ain't playin this year.It is playing with 10-15 day storms, still sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I would be mad because I will be in Phoenix. Don't worry, it ain't snowing next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 HM just tweeted this... @antmasiello: So, we've never had a very strong -QBO/very +PDO/warm ENSO with a +AO Jan and each factor separately argued against it, statistically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Another win for the GFS over the Euro WRT the Thursday storm. You guys were doubting that upgrade and its kicking the Euro's butt! GFS ain't playin this year. I like the new GFS over the old one, but for the southeast, the Euro was much better with the idea of the trailing wave not digging as far southwest and this being largely a dry frontal passage over the interior southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 So how realistic is next Tues looking on the euro and gfs folks? layman minds want to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 So how realistic is next Tues looking on the euro and gfs folks? layman minds want to know. Do you play the lottery? Seriously, look up the odds of winning the jackpot, it's like 365,156,781: 1! That's about the chance we have of seeing snow next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I like the new GFS over the old one, but for the southeast, the Euro was much better with the idea of the trailing wave not digging as far southwest and this being largely a dry frontal passage over the interior southeast.Yep, you are correct. I was actually falling for the GFS when it was showing a snowstorm for me on Friday. Hey guys, if you aren't busy at 8:30, come watch this livestream about the science behind tornado forecasting. I will be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Yep, you are correct. I was actually falling for the GFS when it was showing a snowstorm for me on Friday. Hey guys, if you aren't busy at 8:30, come watch this livestream about the science behind tornado forecasting. I will be watching. heck yeah man I'll be watching too, thanks for the heads up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 So how realistic is next Tues looking on the euro and gfs folks? layman minds want to know. past 8 runs of the euro all have a solid signal with a low off or near the sc coast. gfs at 18z finally showed a semblance of a storm. we will see if the 00z suite continues to sniff something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 past 8 runs of the euro all have a solid signal with a low off or near the sc coast. gfs at 18z finally showed a semblance of a storm. we will see if the 00z suite continues to sniff something out. Warm snow ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Crimson Tide is an excellent movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Crimson Tide is an excellent movie.It's no Dumb and Dumber 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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