frazdaddy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This is boring. I'm really tired of this winter. Can't wait for thunderstorm season or warmer temps. No rain this winter. Everything is just boring. Waycross is boring. Nothing in the forecast for the next 7 days. Nothing on the models to get excited about except "almost" having blocking in 14 days. Yepp gotta say "T" storms are fun to watch from the front porch. These fantasy snow storms just aren't getting it done for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Stupid question but have there ever been events that look favorable 7 days out, vanish, then suddenly show back up under 48 hours? Not this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 And the GFS had some threats in earlier runs. I feel like the models are all crying wolf this winter. They show good potential, but can't win the big game. Models always do this. That is why you don't take them seriously past 7 days. Its not that they are bad, it's that all our threats this year have been in the 10 day range and we are expecting the models to remain unchanged that far out,then we criticize them knowing damn well they are going to change run to run after day 7. Same with hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Stupid question but have there ever been events that look favorable 7 days out, vanish, then suddenly show back up under 48 hours? Yes, back before virtual snow there was in fact actual snow. That was before "The breaking" of the models. Those were the good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just love the GEFS for the fantasy crap it spits out in the 11-15... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It would be great if nothing showed on the models for 10 days out and instead waited until 3 days out to first show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It would be great if nothing showed on the models for 10 days out and instead waited until 3 days out to first show up. Not a bad idea, it would be nice if all models conformed to what the UKmet does. Surface plots inside 72 hours, height available through 144. Then ensembles go to day 12 but only show heights/h-anomalies. After day 12 ensembles have been really bad this winter, really after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It would be great if nothing showed on the models for 10 days out and instead waited until 3 days out to first show up.This is 2015. That doesn't happen anymore. Winter storm Juno showed up 4 days out only b/c of a slight change. It wouldn't have taken much for the models to show a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yep, give me snow or give me warmth!....but not sticky hot weather either Not quite as moving of an oration as that once given by Patrick Henry, but it does match the sentiment of many on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 So this year we learned that analogs & models are mostly worthless past day 2 or 3. Neat. Never again will I fall for a "Winter outlook" or whatever you want to call it. This long range "look at this happening over here" crap is worthless too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 So this year we learned that analogs & models are mostly worthless past day 2 or 3. Neat. Never again will I fall for a "Winter outlook" or whatever you want to call it. This long range "look at this happening over here" crap is worthless too. Except we will forget all this next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 So this year we learned that analogs & models are mostly worthless past day 2 or 3. Neat. Never again will I fall for a "Winter outlook" or whatever you want to call it. This long range "look at this happening over here" crap is worthless too. I personally hope that by next fall they are calling for the warmest winter on record. That way I know we may have a chance for snow. I'm just going to laugh when they forecast warm and dry. Like, does it even matter ? Obviously LR forecasting is a joke and not to be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 So this year we learned that analogs & models are mostly worthless past day 2 or 3. Neat. Never again will I fall for a "Winter outlook" or whatever you want to call it. This long range "look at this happening over here" crap is worthless too. analogs are not worthless, they are just not 100% accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 analogs are not worthless, they are just not 100% accurate. How accurate were they for this winter ? Like 5% accurate ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 analogs are not worthless, they are just not 100% accurate. Okay. They are not worthless. They just suck this year especially and caused busts galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 How about that November though? Wasn't it supposed to be a sign of a good Wintry wall to wall awesome fun time this Winter? I have now learned to be very pessimistic. Widre like even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 When it comes to winter in the southeast, the weather is just going to do what it's going to do. I don't think anyone can predict ahead of time what winter is going to be like here. This winter has shown everything we thought would give us a good winter was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 When it comes to winter in the southeast, the weather is just going to do what it's going to do. I don't think anyone can predict ahead of time what winter is going to be like here. This winter has shown everything we thought would give us a good winter was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Okay. They are not worthless. They just suck this year especially and caused busts galore.there is still a whole month of winter left and temps have not been too far off. Snowfall south of DC is the problem. I know the northeast is well above in snow and DC is average (I think). Besides it doesn't take too much for you guys to get above average snow. For us here in the mtns it's a different story. Hopefully February and March turn snowy. Definitely going to be frustrated if it's April and we are still getting snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Just love the GEFS for the fantasy crap it spits out in the 11-15...Haven't seen that before , at all, the whole winter! A good 11-15 day look, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It sucks in Boone when it's April and 45 or 50 degrees and it is pushing 70 in Raleigh and Charlotte. You almost get blinded by the sun if it does snow up here in April. My parents moved up here in 1997 and the lowest snow total for a season since then has been around 12 inches. So far this year we are up to around 8 inches comprised up all nickel and dime events for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It sucks in Boone when it's April and 45 or 50 degrees and it is pushing 70 in Raleigh and Charlotte. You almost get blinded by the sun if it does snow up here in April. My parents moved up here in 1997 and the lowest snow total for a season since then has been around 12 inches. So far this year we are up to around 8 inches comprised up all nickel and dime events for the most part. Thats sad if boone has only seen 8 inches so far. Thats only 3 inches more (as a total) than areas here saw around 5-5.5 at once in November with an ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It sucks in Boone when it's April and 45 or 50 degrees and it is pushing 70 in Raleigh and Charlotte. You almost get blinded by the sun if it does snow up here in April. My parents moved up here in 1997 and the lowest snow total for a season since then has been around 12 inches. So far this year we are up to around 8 inches comprised up all nickel and dime events for the most part. I was at App St from Spring 89 to summer 91 and that's about all I received during that time span. Definitely loved the summers but was disappointed with the two full winters I experienced. Of course after I left and came down here they has some big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I was at App St from Spring 89 to summer 91 and that's about all I received during that time span. Definitely loved the summers but was disappointed with the two full winters I experienced. Of course after I left and came down here they has some big storms. Yes, 92 to 96 was pretty awesome. Lots of sledding in front of Justice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yes, 92 to 96 was pretty awesome. Lots of sledding in front of Justice. That was my dorm in spring of 89. My room overlooked the pond across the street...Moved to the apartments on King street across from the Harris Teeter in the summer. Great time!! Can't believe I actually graduated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I was at App St from Spring 89 to summer 91 and that's about all I received during that time span. Definitely loved the summers but was disappointed with the two full winters I experienced. Of course after I left and came down here they has some big storms.bet you were bummed missing March 93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Robert posted on facebook that he thinks there wont be any snow in the sout east anytime soon.. it discouraging hearing it from him. but the truth will set you free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 bet you were bummed missing March 93? That hurt bad... I did get an inch or so here (North Raleigh at time), but it was hard seeing everybody to the west get smashed. That was also a bad year overall so missing out on that storm was a dagger to the back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Well the bassmaster classic will be here in the upstate the 20-22 so it will probably be brutal and snowing that whole weekend! And if its not going to snow this winter then give me warm weather, cause I got a Nitro ready myself!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 bet you were bummed missing March 93? That happened during Spring Break. Most of the students were home and had an extra week of Spring Break because they closed down the school for a week afterwards. There were some students stuck up there, and they had to send in the National Guard to get them food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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