franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 So exciting! 14 for a low this morning with a dusting of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 So exciting! 14 for a low this morning with a dusting of snow! Cant tell if sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Cant tell if sarcasm?it was sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Maybe the map jb posted for 133% of average was suppose to be 13.3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Maybe the map jb posted for 133% of average was suppose to be 13.3?NY-Bos will be at like 300% of normal snowfall and he will say he nailed his winter forcast , lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Maybe the map jb posted for 133% of average was suppose to be 13.3? I think he has blinders towards the SE, I'm not sure I've even heard him mention the SE this winter? Wether good or bad! Just ignores it altogether. On the other hand there's really nothing to talk about down here so that could be the reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 They got half right lol That 300% needs to move south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I think he has blinders towards the SE, I'm not sure I've even heard him mention the SE this winter? Wether good or bad! Just ignores it altogether. On the other hand there's really nothing to talk about down here so that could be the reason?Chicago to DC and northeast of that line. He will mention Texas and FL if there is gonna be a freeze there. It's gonna have to be a great pattern for a month to get the mtns to 133% of average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The 384h WTF mirrors the OMG. OMG=WTF! This got me thinking, an always dangerous occurrence, and into my head popped something that possibly explains the wild mood swings of our neighbors to the the immediate north as storms form and bypass them only to bury New England. The new index is called the Lower Mid Atlantic Oscillation or LMAO. You can be sure from this day on, whenever I am working with that forum, LMAO will be at the top of my list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Chicago to DC and northeast of that line. He will mention Texas and FL if there is gonna be a freeze there. It's gonna have to be a great pattern for a month to get the mtns to 133% of average. I've only had a few flurries all winter long not even a dusting!!!! I know I'm not in the mountains but usually I get a dusting at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This got me thinking, an always dangerous occurrence, and into my head popped something that possibly explains the wild mood swings of our neighbors to the the immediate north as storms form and bypass them only to bury New England. The new index is called the Lower Mid Atlantic Oscillation or LMAO. You can be sure from this day on, whenever I am working with that forum, LMAO will be at the top of my list. The FOZZ index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This winter is much worse than 2011-2012. At least that winter had nice weather. Cool/Damp winters suck donkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This winter is much worse than 2011-2012. At least that winter had nice weather. Cool/Damp winters suck donkey. Yep, give me snow or give me warmth!....but not sticky hot weather either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Amazing how the LR GFS just badly wants us to have snow. Run after run, just hasn't been our winter this year. Personally I like the colder weather simply because at least it gives us a chance (however imaginary that might be). I feel like when it's mid 60's for weeks at a time that's when it's just plain old give up weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Well, we have another 12 days or so before the chances for snow historically anyway really go down. I've seen one decent snow past Mid Feb in the last 22 years. I realize that NC is different and even parts of GA have seen snow after Mid Feb in the last few years, but not where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 12Z GFS removes the insanely cold temps that were showing for down here yesterday and on the 0Z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Amazing how the LR GFS just badly wants us to have snow. Run after run, just hasn't been our winter this year. Personally I like the colder weather simply because at least it gives us a chance (however imaginary that might be). I feel like when it's mid 60's for weeks at a time that's when it's just plain old give up weather. The 12z lost the fantasy snows (except light stuff) but kept the potential pattern(cold). I suppose that's all we can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The 12z lost the fantasy snows (except light stuff) but kept the potential pattern(cold). I suppose that's all we can ask for at this point. Fantasy patterns......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The 12z lost the fantasy snows (except light stuff) but kept the potential pattern(cold). I suppose that's all we can ask for at this point. If it's not going to snow it might as well be warm/cold/dry/windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Amazing how the LR GFS just badly wants us to have snow. Run after run, just hasn't been our winter this year. Personally I like the colder weather simply because at least it gives us a chance (however imaginary that might be). I feel like when it's mid 60's for weeks at a time that's when it's just plain old give up weather. The 12z lost the fantasy snows (except light stuff) but kept the potential pattern(cold). I suppose that's all we can ask for at this point. The +PNA seems to be the theme in the 10+ day, but I feel like we haven't seen a stout +PNA with ridging across the pole like the GEFS/EPS is showing all winter. Just look at what the GEFS was advertising for the next 5 days on it's Jan 24th run and compare it to what is actually going to verify. If we do get the stout +PNA in the 11+ day period we will have a great chance at seeing snow, but this has been happening all winter, the 11+ day fantasy patterns never come to fruition. If the Jan24th run would have verified I would suspect the system on Thursday/Friday would have been more favorable for all of us. Jan 24th run for Feb 3-8th http://www.tropicalt...xpos=0&ypos=136 Feb 3rd run for Feb 3-8th http://www.tropicalt...xpos=0&ypos=121 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Well, we have another 12 days or so before the chances for snow historically anyway really go down. I've seen one decent snow past Mid Feb in the last 22 years. I realize that NC is different and even parts of GA have seen snow after Mid Feb in the last few years, but not where I live. I actually believe that the we'll probably get better blocking in March. It seems in winters where there is little blocking(specifically NAO), spring ends up being dominated by it. This should extend our snow chances, but because we'll be in March we'll have to still thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I actually believe that the we'll probably get better blocking in March. It seems in winters where there is little blocking(specifically NAO), spring ends up being dominated by it. This should extend our snow chances, but because we'll be in March we'll have to still thread the needle. It would really suck if we ended up getting good blocking in March and still got shut out. I don't know about everyone else, but mentally I've already kind of moved on to spring. I look forward to 60s/70s and sunshine every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It would really suck if we ended up getting good blocking in March and still got shut out. I don't know about everyone else, but mentally I've already kind of moved on to spring. I look forward to 60s/70s and sunshine every day. So you've sort of made a U-turn away from winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Stupid question but have there ever been events that look favorable 7 days out, vanish, then suddenly show back up under 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The +PNA seems to be the theme in the 10+ day, but I feel like we haven't seen a stout +PNA with ridging across the pole like the GEFS/EPS is showing all winter. Just look at what the GEFS was advertising for the next 5 days on it's Jan 24th run and compare it to what is actually going to verify. If we do get the stout +PNA in the 11+ day period we will have a great chance at seeing snow, but this has been happening all winter, the 11+ day fantasy patterns never come to fruition. If the Jan24th run would have verified I would suspect the system on Thursday/Friday would have been more favorable for all of us. Jan 24th run for Feb 3-8th http://www.tropicalt...xpos=0&ypos=136 Feb 3rd run for Feb 3-8th http://www.tropicalt...xpos=0&ypos=121 LR indices look ok today. If we can get some of the better individual (negative/neutral) runs for the NAO and AO we could do well in mid February. The good thing is we have potential. The sad thing is this may be our last chance to see a good SE winter storm( something that can accumulate easily, last a couple of days, and not have to come at night). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This is boring. I'm really tired of this winter. Can't wait for thunderstorm season or warmer temps. No rain this winter. Everything is just boring. Waycross is boring. Nothing in the forecast for the next 7 days. Nothing on the models to get excited about except "almost" having blocking in 14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 So you've sort of made a U-turn away from winter?Literally and figuratively ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The 12z Canadian has a couple fantasy snow events in the D7-10 range. All-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The 12z Canadian has a couple fantasy snow events in the D7-10 range. All-in. And the GFS had some threats in earlier runs. I feel like the models are all crying wolf this winter. They show good potential, but can't win the big game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The 12z Canadian has a couple fantasy snow events in the D7-10 range. All-in. Heck I'm in!!! It's all we got...nothing to lose, except maybe my sanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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