packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 If this winter would have been warm it would have been much better. Too much rain and cold. January will go down as a below average temp month with above in precip. Only one inch of snow to show for it here at the house and maybe 2-3 at 5000ft and above here. It's so bad that I had to use 4 wheel drive to get up my driveway this morning because of mud. Yeah, I am going to be severely disappointed if we suck out with a 2-3" slopper, I want snow futility, it happens from time to time so it would be good to just suck it up for the rest of the winter now. RDU has had 24 winters with 1" or less of snow in the past 128 years, so that's roughly 20% of the time, 1 out of every 5 years. To compare we have had 33 winters with 11" or greater in that same time period. So we are more likely to get 11+" of snow in a season then it is to stay below 1". We have had 5 winters below 1" since 2004, which was our last 11+" season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 00z Euro gave me 6 inches of snow. Here comes to the 12z run to take it away. That's how the Euro rolls now a days. Going to guess the Euro shows a blizzard for the NE this Friday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I come to this forum for my daily comedy. Way too many folks have been so repetitive about the 10 day storm being the one "they have their eye on" and how "it's the one" and "best look we've had all season" and "so much model agreement" and "I've been eyeing this time period for a while" and "I knew this one that's 3 days out wasn't going to work" blah blah blah blah blah. When will some learn that a pattern is a pattern for a reason? After the second time we had a day 8-10 storm not work out I quit putting ANY belief in a model past day 3. Close the books on this winter, it'll go down as one of the biggest busts in recent memory and you're crazy if you think otherwise. End rant You're right in that it's usually very silly to get worked up about a 10 day out storm. But what else do we have in this boring winter? Chasing D 10 threats is all we got. But yeah, they're not going to work out most years...especially this one. But patterns do change. We have to hope this one does before it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 00z Euro gave me 6 inches of snow. Here comes to the 12z run to take it away. You know it! What time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Yeah, I am going to be severely disappointed if we suck out with a 2-3" slopper, I want snow futility, it happens from time to time so it would be good to just suck it up for the rest of the winter now. RDU has had 24 winters with 1" or less of snow in the past 128 years, so that's roughly 20% of the time, 1 out of every 5 years. To compare we have had 33 winters with 11" or greater in that same time period. So we are more likely to get 11+" of snow in a season then it is to stay below 1". We have had 5 winters below 1" since 2004, which was our last 11+" season. Crazy that 5 of them have been since 2004. It's been feast or famine since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 That's how the Euro rolls now a days. Going to guess the Euro shows a blizzard for the NE this Friday.... It's usually good for showing snow between 10 and 7 days out, and then taking it away between 7 and 5 days out this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Banter's full! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 What does "weenie" mean here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Ask Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 You're right in that it's usually very silly to get worked up about a 10 day out storm. But what else do we have in this boring winter? Chasing D 10 threats is all we got. But yeah, they're not going to work out most years...especially this one. But patterns do change. We have to hope this one does before it's too late. No I agree that the 10 day storms are all we have had to look at but the thing that gets me is some of the things that are said with every single one. Just how people do a complete 180 with every event from day 10 to day 3 and they do the same exact thing for the next day 10 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 00z Euro gave me 6 inches of snow. Here comes to the 12z run to take it away.It's good you don't keep getting your 12 inches from the same model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 What does "weenie" mean here? Here? Anyone who thinks it will ever snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Despite all this wind, at least it's a warm day on the east side of the Appalachians today. It's a different story in or on the west side of the apps. It looked like there were some snow showers in northwestern Georgia this morning, can anybody confirm? I know there is blowing snow up in the high mountains of NC with temps in the low 20s with 50mph winds. I did not have any in mby, but the local facebook page got lots of reports of flurries in our county (Lumpkin). from my house I could also see that up in the mountains along the app trail ridge (near springer mtn) it was snowing. not sure if any accumulations, but I would bet the higher peaks say above 3k had a least a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Of course I'll read the forecast, but I'll put very little weight to them; maybe as much as next years woolly worm. Talk about very little weight---12z GFS at day 13 (then there would be another threat after that): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_312_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=312&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150202+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Congrats Boston.... Again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Here? Anyone who thinks it will ever snow again. I thought it meant anyone thats overzealous either negative or positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Middle of winter and not one mention of the 12z euro. Kinda tells you how bad everything has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think it's a bit ridiculous to completely give up on winter when we still have a the rest of February and even some of March to see winter precip. It amazes me to see how everyone hugs those models, when they have not been at all reliable thus far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Middle of winter and not one mention of the 12z euro. Kinda tells you how bad everything has gone. Another 10 day event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Middle of winter and not one mention of the 12z euro. Kinda tells you how bad everything has gone. Well around Day 7, it sends an inland runner to West Virginia that redevelops around Greensboro. So yeah, theres that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Another 10 day event. There's no D10 event that I can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 There's no D10 event that I can find. There's not but don't look now a cutoff cutting under the ridge lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 There's no D10 event that I can find. Daylight saving time starts five weeks from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 And Boston breaks a record, going to shatter it, they have several more hours of snow left too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Daylight saving time starts five weeks from today. Snow chances will be over then with the days being an hour longer and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Snow chances will be over then with the days being an hour longer and all. It really warms the soil to the point that anything that falls just melts no matter how strong the rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It really warms the soil to the point that anything that falls just melts no matter how strong the rates. By then the angle of the cold air is all wrong anyway. Dynamic cooling will never overcome with strong rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think the mountains will get something decent between now and the end of March. You folks in the low-lands - might as well get out the short sleeves and call this winter off. The sun is going to start feeling nice in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 My chips may be off the table, but i haven't given up by no means. Ive went flake less many winters in December, January and got thumped February, March. South an east of 85 may be another story who knows, i dont feel confident by no means with a hundred an twenty years worth of data. Need several hundred more. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think the mountains will get something decent between now and the end of March. You folks in the low-lands - might as well get out the short sleeves and call this winter off. The sun is going to start feeling nice in a week or so. Yep I say east of 85 it might be over but around the 40 corridor and the mountains still plenty of time left for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Time for a hail mary on this storm. I'm hoping we can salvage winter with a strong ULL swinging through in late Feb or early March. Those are some really fun systems if you don't get screwed over. 2009 was awesome with extreme rates and thunder. One of the few times it poured rain all day then just switched over in a matter of seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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