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Fab February Banter


mackerel_sky

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Sparklecity's Winter Storm laws of the upstate:

 

1.  95% of the time there has to be a HP in place to provide a source of cold air if we are to receive significant accumulations.

 

2.  Always believe in the NW trend when a winter storm is being modeled a few days out.

 

3.  Not really a rule but I digress.  Everyone always says the NAM at 84 hours sucks, but I've seen it model multiple times a more accurate placement of the low than the Euro or the GFS so it shouldn't be discounted entirely.

 

4.  When ever models are showing significant accumulations, DO NOT BELIEVE IT.  IT IS NOT HAPPENING!  My advice, make a list of things that could go wrong and at least a couple of those will happen.  I don't care if you have a 1044 HP and a low that takes the perfect track in the gulf, something will always go wrong to limit accumulations (usually convection in the gulf).  I'm more likely to get struck by lightning working in the yard trying to beat an advancing thunderstorm than I will ever be too see 8" fall.

 

5.  Never believe wide swaths of 6"-10" being depicted in our area by forecasters or models.  Large swaths of heavy accumulations like that are exceedingly rare.

 

6.  Almost always the mountains will end up with more snow than the upstate.  Don't believe any forecast snow totals that say otherwise.

 

7.  If a storm is labeled boom or bust, it will be bust.

 

8.  If your temperatures are forecast to be borderline, you will not have a chance at all if you are south of I-85.

 

9.  Keep reminding yourself of Murphy's Law.  It applies to snow in the upstate.

 

Anything else I should add?

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I give this winter a plain C. I did pass climo on snow (got ~ 10-11"); but I could compare this winter to a bad school course. You take the course thinking it's going to be a great class, but then you struggle to pass any of your assignments through most of the course. It basically sucks. But right at the end you pull through with a couple of assignments and then ace the final exam.  Your happy to pass but will always look back at the class thinking it sucked.

Also, it was too much at one time. I've missed so much work and it's messed with my routine. I'd rather have a storm or two a month at most. Plenty of time to recover. Winter storms have a refractory period.
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Well after the snow eater haunted me all night, I ended up with an inch of grayish white slush on the ground. At least I saw snow on my birthday, for only the second time I can remember.

My wife, son, and I went to Burlington (where my family lives) and played in the snow all day. It was a good day.

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Well after the snow eater haunted me all night, I ended up with an inch of grayish white slush on the ground. At least I saw snow on my birthday, for only the second time I can remember.

My wife, son, and I went to Burlington (where my family lives) and played in the snow all day. It was a good day.

How much did brick get? I haven't seen or missed it!? Did he get his 16"?
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Well after the snow eater haunted me all night, I ended up with an inch of grayish white slush on the ground. At least I saw snow on my birthday, for only the second time I can remember.

My wife, son, and I went to Burlington (where my family lives) and played in the snow all day. It was a good day.

congrates! Happy birthday and may you enjoy many many more!
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Sparklecity's Winter Storm laws of the upstate:

1. 95% of the time there has to be a HP in place to provide a source of cold air if we are to receive significant accumulations.

2. Always believe in the NW trend when a winter storm is being modeled a few days out.

3. Not really a rule but I digress. Everyone always says the NAM at 84 hours sucks, but I've seen it model multiple times a more accurate placement of the low than the Euro or the GFS so it shouldn't be discounted entirely.

4. When ever models are showing significant accumulations, DO NOT BELIEVE IT. IT IS NOT HAPPENING! My advice, make a list of things that could go wrong and at least a couple of those will happen. I don't care if you have a 1044 HP and a low that takes the perfect track in the gulf, something will always go wrong to limit accumulations (usually convection in the gulf). I'm more likely to get struck by lightning working in the yard trying to beat an advancing thunderstorm than I will ever be too see 8" fall.

5. Never believe wide swaths of 6"-10" being depicted in our area by forecasters or models. Large swaths of heavy accumulations like that are exceedingly rare.

6. Almost always the mountains will end up with more snow than the upstate. Don't believe any forecast snow totals that say otherwise.

7. If a storm is labeled boom or bust, it will be bust.

8. If your temperatures are forecast to be borderline, you will not have a chance at all if you are south of I-85.

9. Keep reminding yourself of Murphy's Law. It applies to snow in the upstate.

Anything else I should add?

If it don't snow in ATL , it won't snow here! Heard that since the first day I was born, and true more times than not! Definately true yesterday!
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There were winters with no snow, not even threats of snow, and you give this winter an F? Yes, it was a lot worse than it should have been, but there were several events this past week that at least provided something to GA and SC. We definitely had winters in the '00s and the late 90s where you didn't even get that. Give it a D+.

 

Well, I stick with my F based on all the "hype'.  Admit it Widre, things looked to be good this year from almost every aspect pre-Winter.

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Well, I got 6 inches of snow from the Wednesday night storm. Not as much as the models showed, but I'll take it. Still got the average for winter in one storm. Looks like the heavier stuff was just to the northwest of Wake County, and we had less precip and more of a warm nose than we were looking for. Still a good storm for my place.

 

Looks like there could be potential for next weekend already. I am looking forward to spring, though.

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