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Fab February Banter


mackerel_sky

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 It's gone down some as people leave work.  This was at 4:30.

 

681 user(s) are browsing this forum

 

It will go higher later tonight as folks settle in.

 not bad though!

 

hey - good luck up there! looks like it may be wet and heavy -- watch the limbs (all of them - trees and yours!)

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I can't disagree.

 

Like I said in the other thread... started out big on hype only to completely wilt.  Sadly there's no weather viagra to fix that. :)

 

Learned a lot of lessons this season.  Here are my highlights:

 

#1. Snow can happen in November.  An ULL can do crazy things.

#2. Long range forecasts along with analogs and whatever else don't mean much.

#3. When your Governor declares a State of Emergency for Winter weather, consider it a deathblow to the event.

#4. The UKMET isn't too bad at all.

#5. HRRR is much better than the RAP, but both kind of sucked for many areas.

 

I think no matter how many times it screws us, we still haven't learned to not feed into hype and computer model output verbatim in not just the long range, but the 12-24 hour range too.

 

The time I spent on these false Winter weather events could have been used in a much more positive way.  So I guess the best possible lesson I have learned.. is to be pessimistic and not obsessive with weather models or any event anymore.

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Learned a lot of lessons this season.  Here are my highlights:

 

#1. Snow can happen in November.  An ULL can do crazy things.

#2. Long range forecasts along with analogs and whatever else don't mean much.

#3. When your Governor declares a State of Emergency for Winter weather, consider it a deathblow to the event.

#4. The UKMET isn't too bad at all.

#5. HRRR is much better than the RAP, but both kind of sucked for many areas.

 

I think no matter how many times it screws us, we still haven't learned to not feed into hype and computer model output verbatim in not just the long range, but the 12-24 hour range too.

 

The time I spent on these false Winter weather events could have been used in a much more positive way.  So I guess the best possible lesson I have learned.. is to be pessimistic and not obsessive with weather models or any event anymore.

 

I already didn't trust the models at all.  They're just mathematical probabilities and there's a virtual certainty they aren't going to turn out perfectly.

 

Analogs and data comparisons were what did it for me this year - so many people were combing data and presenting analogs and "last ten times time x happened, y happened" like the data were golden, even long time mets were buying that koolaid and selling it, hyping up a dramatic winter for all they were worth.  At the end of the day, we have (barely) 100 years of decent data... and even less than that of good data... and even less than that of excellent data.  We don't KNOW what is "normal", we only sort of know what's happened in the last ~100 years.  So whoever comes along peddling analogs next fall can go suck a lemon, lol.

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There were winters with no snow, not even threats of snow, and you give this winter an F? Yes, it was a lot worse than it should have been, but there were several events this past week that at least provided something to GA and SC. We definitely had winters in the '00s and the late 90s where you didn't even get that. Give it a D+.

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Well we were pretty lucky to get what we did considering this winter we've had. I'm ready to take my spring/summer sabbatical! Bring on 70's and sun. 

 

This!

 

I will give this winter a C+ for MBY.    Seasonal progs were way way off!!!    And the OPI performed like crap with regards to the AO.  All those impressive stats on the OPI, toss them out the window in my book.

 

I had a decent ZR event almost .25

Almost an inch a couple of days ago

over 3 inches last night.

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There were winters with no snow, not even threats of snow, and you give this winter an F? Yes, it was a lot worse than it should have been, but there were several events this past week that at least provided something to GA and SC. We definitely had winters in the '00s and the late 90s where you didn't even get that. Give it a D+.

 

Atlanta got trace. Both events this week did not deliver. Always just too North. Very disappointing after so much hype about this winter. I'll take last winter over this one anyday and people did not really have good news about last winter at all.

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There were winters with no snow, not even threats of snow, and you give this winter an F? Yes, it was a lot worse than it should have been, but there were several events this past week that at least provided something to GA and SC. We definitely had winters in the '00s and the late 90s where you didn't even get that. Give it a D+.

Yeah I was expecting to get shut out 2 weeks ago and I'm at 9" now. I know some people didn't do as well but we've been pretty fortunate to finally have the pattern work out at the last minute. Almost everyone has seen at least some snow the last 10 days.

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This!

 

I will give this winter a C+ for MBY.    Seasonal progs were way way off!!!    And the OPI performed like crap with regards to the AO.  All those impressive stats on the OPI, toss them out the window in my book.

 

I had a decent ZR event almost .25

Almost an inch a couple of days ago

over 3 inches last night.

Actually, I'm willing to bet that 4" + 0.25" ZR puts you a little over climo for Canton. Pretty nice, especially when ignoring seasonal progs. Feb., itself, was obviously way above climo along with being about 7 colder than normal. Nice way to end met. winter!

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Actually, I'm willing to bet that 4" + 0.25" ZR puts you a little over climo for Canton. Pretty nice, especially when ignoring seasonal progs. Feb., itself, was obviously way above climo along with being about 7 colder than normal. Nice way to end met. winter!

 

Yeah the buildup kinda skewed it for me for sure.

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I give this winter a plain C. I did pass climo on snow (got ~ 10-11"); but I could compare this winter to a bad school course. You take the course thinking it's going to be a great class, but then you struggle to pass any of your assignments through most of the course. It basically sucks. But right at the end you pull through with a couple of assignments and then ace the final exam.  Your happy to pass but will always look back at the class thinking it sucked.  

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So this is interesting. It'll be just our luck that severe season will suck too. I'm also terrified of a brutal summer. It seems like it's been a few years since we last had one. 

Huh. I didn't know that watch in FL last night was only #4 on the year.

 

I'm not really going to complain too much about severe season being quiet again, though :P

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