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Fab February Banter


mackerel_sky

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I think we do need to expect mixing in the Triangle, possibly with rain. That's pretty much a given now. I don't buy no accumulation. It's going to be a nighttime storm and all the models, even the warm SREF, get us at or below freezing during most of the precip. I think it's hard to argue that we'll get non-accumulating snow from this. I understand the skepticism and conservatism, and if this were a daytime storm, I'd say forget about it. This is not that.

To be honest, I'm surprised WRAL is doing this after missing this morning's event. You'd think they'd want to be on top of things. Maybe they are trying to show that they aren't going to be reactive.

 

They just want to continue to hug their in house model which has been horribly wrong.

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Yep, upper levels were an ensemble of 21 members...maybe right but certainly safe. Once the warning is posted they will get much more aggressive.

 

I really didn't understand either.  I've been checking soundings after most model runs and haven't seen anything that warm.  He knows more than me so he must have his reasoning.

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Amen. Wilmington got screwed once again today, sounds like the only county in NC not to get accumulating snow. My mother said we only had some sleet and about .2 inches of ice at the house. Just once I'd like to see a storm where both those places are happy.

How is getting almost a quarter inch of ice and sleet being screwed?
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What model was he taking from anyway?

I'm not exactly sure to be honest, he mentioned the 21 ensembles at the onset. It may come to fruition but I would lean more toward the cluster majority opposed to incorporating extremes....considering the amount of time from the onset of the potential event. That said, anything is possible, I'm guessing the tune changes with Liz in the morn unless drastic changes occur in the remaining 0z and the 6z runs. May be the marketing piece Burg mentioned earlier.

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I was referencing from a snow standpoint. It was a significant storm for Wilmington, that's a given, it's just frustrating to see them be stuck with sleet and zr.

Oh... I understand. Still better than 50 and rain all day lol.

Guys Boston is at 99.9 inches of snow for the year. They will probably reach the hundered mark in the next 30 minutes. Then they are only 8 inches from the snowiest year ever!

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Ugghh SREF mean is bad for me.  Waiting to see the plumes.

 

Where did you see the mean?  I see mean QPF is down a little for the GSP area, but the MSLP track look a tiny bit further S/E, so it might have been colder.

 

Interestingly, QPF looks about the same here as QPF kind of bulges out a bit in central NC.  The plumes should be exciting.

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After watching CAE get cut off so much, I think I may be leaving you guys soon.  

The g/f and I are talking it over... but we might move on out to the plains somwhere.. maybe even into ND/SD.

 

We need our Winter weather horribly.. and it's not just that... by the time severe weather gets over this way, it dies out.

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