Steven_1974 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think we do need to expect mixing in the Triangle, possibly with rain. That's pretty much a given now. I don't buy no accumulation. It's going to be a nighttime storm and all the models, even the warm SREF, get us at or below freezing during most of the precip. I think it's hard to argue that we'll get non-accumulating snow from this. I understand the skepticism and conservatism, and if this were a daytime storm, I'd say forget about it. This is not that. To be honest, I'm surprised WRAL is doing this after missing this morning's event. You'd think they'd want to be on top of things. Maybe they are trying to show that they aren't going to be reactive. They just want to continue to hug their in house model which has been horribly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 LBAR. More like the FUBAR model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 State held the ball for most of the shot clock and made the game ugly because they knew they couldn't run with UNC, they controlled the pace of play and had a good gameplan and won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm going storm chasing tomorrow. Widremann you coming with me? Fcuk snow! We can chase this 5% marginal area along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yep, upper levels were an ensemble of 21 members...maybe right but certainly safe. Once the warning is posted they will get much more aggressive. I really didn't understand either. I've been checking soundings after most model runs and haven't seen anything that warm. He knows more than me so he must have his reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Amen. Wilmington got screwed once again today, sounds like the only county in NC not to get accumulating snow. My mother said we only had some sleet and about .2 inches of ice at the house. Just once I'd like to see a storm where both those places are happy.How is getting almost a quarter inch of ice and sleet being screwed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 State held the ball for most of the shot clock and made the game ugly because they knew they couldn't run with UNC, they controlled the pace of play and had a good gameplan and won. Yep! sucked for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How is getting almost a quarter inch of ice and sleet being screwed?I was referencing from a snow standpoint. It was a significant storm for Wilmington, that's a given, it's just frustrating to see them be stuck with sleet and zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawkbaseball#6 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What model was he taking from anyway? I'm not exactly sure to be honest, he mentioned the 21 ensembles at the onset. It may come to fruition but I would lean more toward the cluster majority opposed to incorporating extremes....considering the amount of time from the onset of the potential event. That said, anything is possible, I'm guessing the tune changes with Liz in the morn unless drastic changes occur in the remaining 0z and the 6z runs. May be the marketing piece Burg mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 They just want to continue to hug their in house model which has been horribly wrong. Yep, stubborn. Not good forecasting. Hopefully (for ease of business operations) I am wrong, but the science says not. Time for a lawn chair in the WRAL fountain with each of their mets taking a turn sitting in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I was referencing from a snow standpoint. It was a significant storm for Wilmington, that's a given, it's just frustrating to see them be stuck with sleet and zr.Oh... I understand. Still better than 50 and rain all day lol.Guys Boston is at 99.9 inches of snow for the year. They will probably reach the hundered mark in the next 30 minutes. Then they are only 8 inches from the snowiest year ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Get some sleep tonight everyone. There may not be much of that tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Get some sleep tonight everyone. There may not be much of that tomorrow. Down for the count. Sweet dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I can't wait for HRRR and RAP meltdowns along with radar hallucinations all day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I can't wait for HRRR and RAP meltdowns along with radar hallucinations all day tomorrow. I've already melted down tonight after seeing the hires nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What qualifies a person for red and yellow names? I've always wondered just never asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What qualifies a person for red and yellow names? I've always wondered just never asked. Red is if they're a met. Yellow means they're not a met but will very good at meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Red is if they're a met. Yellow means they're not a met but will very good at meteorology. Thought so! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flowerybranchweather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 TWC had me at 3-5 inches earlier today, now they have me as some accumulation of wet snow possible on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I can't wait for HRRR and RAP meltdowns along with radar hallucinations all day tomorrow. I predict some possible suicides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I predict some possible suicides. Hopefully Lookout has his cliff ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'll be climbing to the top of Spartanburg's lone skyscraper. Hope there isn't a line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'll be climbing to the top of Spartanburg's lone skyscraper. Hope there isn't a line. Lies, You guys have like 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ugghh SREF mean is bad for me. Waiting to see the plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ugghh SREF mean is bad for me. Waiting to see the plumes. For reference, the mean was around 5.55 last go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ugghh SREF mean is bad for me. Waiting to see the plumes. Where did you see the mean? I see mean QPF is down a little for the GSP area, but the MSLP track look a tiny bit further S/E, so it might have been colder. Interestingly, QPF looks about the same here as QPF kind of bulges out a bit in central NC. The plumes should be exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 After watching CAE get cut off so much, I think I may be leaving you guys soon. The g/f and I are talking it over... but we might move on out to the plains somwhere.. maybe even into ND/SD. We need our Winter weather horribly.. and it's not just that... by the time severe weather gets over this way, it dies out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 After watching CAE get cut off so much, I think I may be leaving you guys soon. The g/f and I are talking it over... but we might move on out to the plains somwhere.. maybe even into ND/SD. I think inland Maine or something would be best. Coastals are awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Temp is actually plummeting now. Dropped 2° the last hour. Living on the plains would suck. If you want snow, move to New York and get in one of those ridiculous lake affect zones. I'm getting delirious from my 3 hours of sleep the last 2 days. About to pop a melatonin after I see my plumes and crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think inland Maine or something would be best. Coastals are awesome. Maine isn't too bad for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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