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Fab February Banter


mackerel_sky

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If it's right then may God have mercy on this forum.

It's not right, though. The upgrade wasn't ready and our computing just blows. This just shows truly how terrible the GFS is. It will likely just keep on ticking NW as if no one is watching.

I actually want it to be right in this case so it can blow all of the other models out and be the new king. It would also mean others will take it more seriously. The thing is, its not a bad model, it just doesn't do as well with this region in of the US. The NE folks say it's doing really well. No I'm not saying that I don't want y'all to get snow.
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Indeed. NCDOT guy just said that the earlier forecasts were wrong. They should have listened to Brick Tamland!

Just saying folks here following the models were seeing the snow for here increasing. Other folks just war hang the local TV were caught off guard. It seems like a lot of the local TV mets just don't want to believe the models sometimes. Better safe than sorry and let the public know what COULD happen.

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Can we all just accept the GFS is out to lunch here? It seems several refuse to accept that...it's an obvious outlier. I'm not saying the 00z Nam is going to verify, but come on...when will we accept how much our beloved global model sucks? With each run of the GFS being more suppressed than other solutions (except for maybe the latest, and it's still south), I cringe reading people getting depressed over it, when every other piece of guidance says otherwise. Wake up everyone, the GFS blows.

I would bet the NAM ends up being closer to reality than the GFS.

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Here are some good SREF numbers... from the MA!   :whistle:

 

The SREF plumes are just absolutely ridiculous......

 

Means:

 

EZF: 8.3

DCA: 7.2

BWI: 6.5

RIC: 8.9

IAD: 6.9

OKV: 6.8

 

All of these have extreme outliers near or above 20"......but I think the further South you go its possible 1-3 inches could fall.....not really sure where this is going.

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Does anybody else think we will lose the storm to the north like we have done so many times before? Delta doesn't think so. We will see.

Anyone not concerned about shifts to the NW hasn't lived around here very long. Might not happen and certainly no reason to lose it over the SREF. But we'll all feel better when all of the models are tightly clustered.

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congrats bevo!

 

Thanks!

 

Awesome! Congrats man!

 

Thanks bro. I was called back by the parent company of the subsidiary that laid me off, and asked if I wanted to work a "temp-to-possibly-permanent job" (for more money :) ) while being "covered" during my severance period from the other job. I said yes. With a hint of snide, but yes regardless.

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Issued by The National Weather ServiceColumbia, SC
Tue, Feb 24, 5:18 am EST

  • ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
  • * WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.
  • * LOCATIONS... WESTERN MIDLANDS.
  • * HAZARD TYPES... WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIX... LIGHT SNOW/SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
  • * SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS... TRACE... MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.
  • * ICE ACCUMULATIONS... AROUND A TRACE.
  • * TIMING... THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
  • * IMPACTS... LIGHT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ACCRETE TO TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS TO UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS. BRIDGES MAY BE ICY. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION.
  • * WINDS... NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
  • * TEMPERATURES... IN THE MID 30S.
  • PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
  • A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET... OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

 


I wasn't aware ice could accumilate in the mid 30s.... :blink:


 


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