mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 At least the comma head is over NC on the GFS, so we got that going for us.... Nice comma head rainstorm , winning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Is there such thing as a fail weenie? We have alot on this board! It's two days away and they are saying fail for everybody ! I just say fail imby! We're gonna get nothing but rain and mid 40s which is perfectly fine by me. I need to work and make money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yep, when was the last time inside 48 hours, which we will be tonight, we had things trend our way. 1980? I want to see the RGEM/NAM's amp this up tonight and ram it up our fannies tonight to believe any NW possibility. The GFS Op needs to show something tonight, not a complete whiff again. The 4km NAM was fairly amped at 18z though. It's why I'm always so skeptical about snow now. It's been a long time since we've had good trends leading right into a storm and then it met or exceeded expectations. The majority go the other way. This last event is a great example. The last model runs before the event gave many several inches of snow. And what happened? An inch of sleet? We forget how much has to align perfectly to get snow here and how easily any one factor can ruin it completely. We're really lucky that it ever actually does snow. Still, I don't hate the setup. I think we get at least a couple of inches, which is a big win in my book. But I want the GFS to show something and the Canadian to come in too. The fact that we still have this kind of disagreement at this short lead when all the players are on the field and sampled is troubling. Hopefully, we can at least pretty much put the track to bed with the 0Zs tonight. But yeah, if you don't recognize the fact that there is still much about this that can go wrong, then you're setting yourself up big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 LOL at worrying about ground temps. BL temps might be concerning for some in that 33-35 and snow will cut down on accumulations and make ratios suck, but ground temps will be lower than we typically have during our winter storms. It wouldn't surprise me to see a fairly uniform 2-4" across much of NC and Upstate SC with warmer BL temps and poor ratios in the S/E areas balancing the QPF imbalance off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'll send y'all a pic of my Rainman !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Just my thought on this, with even looking at the euro lastnight. There is nothing to suggest strengthening. Upper-Level dynamics suck. I think we may get some snow, but not to the magnitude some is suggesting. maybe around a inch or two for charlotte. and here's truly hoping you, and Jon, and Cold Rain, and Pack, and Frosty, and Buckeye and WOW and mackerel and .... everyone all get it!!!! Big time. Watching in anticipation!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 We're gonna get nothing but rain and mid 40s which is perfectly fine by me. I need to work and make money. I still got some hope that CLT will see a few inches. magical things happen in a comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 LOL at worrying about ground temps. BL temps might be concerning for some in that 33-35 and snow will cut down on accumulations and make ratios suck, but ground temps will be lower than we typically have during our winter storms. It wouldn't surprise me to see a fairly uniform 2-4" across much of NC and Upstate SC with warmer BL temps and poor ratios in the S/E areas balancing the QPF imbalance off. 2-4 inches? Yawn. Talk about boring. I'd rather have rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 http://www.wral.com/triangle-expected-to-receive-1-2-punch-of-snow-this-week/14465363/ Conservative WRAL on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'll send y'all a pic of my Rainman !! See if you can outdo my slushman from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 2-4 inches? Yawn. Talk about boring. I'd rather have rain. Could be a lot more (4-8"?). Just keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Could be a lot more (4-8"?). Just keep expectations in check. South trends for the loss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I know Brick is excited. Via WRAL 7-day forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 System looks perfect for N. GA snow. knocking on wood, I agree. the precip shield will be more expansive even if the LP verifies where the gfs has it IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 http://www.wral.com/triangle-expected-to-receive-1-2-punch-of-snow-this-week/14465363/ Conservative WRAL on board. Yep. Pretty much lines up with what he said during the 6:00 show. Brick just gets mad because he doesn't blow his load every time the Weatherbell NAM snow map shows 10" for Wake Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At least the comma head is over NC on the GFS, so we got that going for us.... The GFS gives us no precip. That's the driest comma head ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This has the chances of being one of those events where the banter thread has better info than the discussion thread, lol. Mods might have their hands full if this pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 and here's truly hoping you, and Jon, and Cold Rain, and Pack, and Frosty, and Buckeye and WOW and mackerel and .... everyone all get it!!!! Big time. Watching in anticipation!!! I hope one day you get some snow down your way man. My sleetman has almost all melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What time does the 0z Slimgem come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What time does the 0z Slimgem come out? ohhh yeahhh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What time does the 0z Slimgem come out? Right after the 00z SOL and FUBAR Models roll out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What time does the 0z Slimgem come out? I'd ask him but he's no longer with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hubba hubba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Getting some >.6 values for the first time. The ensemble spread is closing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Were temps forecast to be in the 50s in the upstate today? Last night they said we would be in the low 40s in CAE by this afternoon, we are in the mid and high 40s and not going anywhere. I'm beginning to wonder where this cold air is supposed to come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Man, a bunch of negative vibes in here this evening. I thought the gfs and euro have a tendency to weaken the low prematurely? I think it will stay closed off longer than being modeled. Maybe It's very easy to follow who the pessimist worriers are amongst this crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's very easy to follow who the pessimist worriers are amongst this crowd. Right here. Rain and mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The devil is in the details. If I had a $ for every time I heard that from my meteorology prof. I would be a rich man. It is still around 48 hours out. I am just watching and waiting...with toes, fingers, and legs crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 All hail winter storm Quantum......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Quantum? Really? **facepalm** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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