CherokeeGA Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm not quite sure why central South Carolina is under a Winter Weather Advisory for a trace of snow, first time I have ever lived anywhere that does that. In Atlanta it was a WWA for 1-3", and a Winter Storm for 2-4"+ Here's what they do now, largely due to the whiff last year that left kids on buses all night. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=winter_storm_criteria_change No QPF minimums required anymore, really - if they are concerned that the public could be placed in unsafe conditions, they can issue a watch or a warning without meeting any minimum per time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm not sure if I should laugh at the GFS or fear that it could be right. I'm sticking with cautious optimism now. I want to see the 0z runs, especially the CMC, before I decide if I'm going to be worried or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm not sure if I should laugh at the GFS or fear that it could be right. Not too late for one last kick in the groin this winter is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I don't watch the Weather Channel except during live coverage events (sometimes), but found this interesting... a post from one of our local hardware stores... Hudson's Hardware & Outdoor Equipment 3 hrs · Edited · WELL...for all of you snow bunnies who didn't get enough of the white stuff last week...DON'T FRET. The Weather Channel is calling for 3-5 inches of accumulation of snow in Garner and 5-8 inches accumulation of snow in Clayton. And guess what...We have replenished our stock of ICE MELT, SLEDS, GLOVES, and HEATERS. So be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm sticking with cautious optimism now. I want to see the 0z runs, especially the CMC, before I decide if I'm going to be worried or not. The 18z NAVGEM just came in more amped, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I just can't get over local mets talking about freezing rain to the south as they forecast lows above freezing for that area. Sometimes I just want to put my head through a wall watching these guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This event tomorrow is setting up perfectly for the Triad...to be able to watch as people one county over get dumped on. Keep the NW trend alive! Yeah, I have a feeling this will be one of those times when we have nothing here but 30 miles south and east, they have several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here's what they do now, largely due to the whiff last year that left kids on buses all night. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=winter_storm_criteria_change No QPF minimums required anymore, really - if they are concerned that the public could be placed in unsafe conditions, they can issue a watch or a warning without meeting any minimum per time. I really like their new approach to advisories--the impact to the region should be the criteria versus an arbitrary number. It's a tough job for FFC given that they are in charge of issuing headlines for a major metro area that is not accustomed to winter weather, and I think their way of handling it (even if seemingly overzealous to some) is about as effective as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I really like their new approach to advisories--the impact to the region should be the criteria versus an arbitrary number. It's a tough job for FFC given that they are in charge of issuing headlines for a major metro area that is not accustomed to winter weather, and I think their way of handling it (even if seemingly overzealous to some) is about as effective as you can get. I've been really happy with how they are handling things this winter. Granted there wasn't much to handle until the last 10 days or so, but they're doing it well, with good discussion attached. They are issuing watch/advisory/warnings in plenty of time for people to understand them and make decisions. We're kind of where I wish they were warning the public about Wednesday, but at the same time, I totally understand why they are waiting for tonight's weather to pass before they start trumpeting the next thing coming. Heck, half the people on this board can't even keep straight which threat is being discussed, can't expect the public to do well with it either. Tomorrow morning still gives people a full business day to decide what to do on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Slow down on the posting. I can't keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Slow down on the posting. I can't keep up. Let me give you a short synopsis of the next 2-3 days for us: slight dusting tomorrow, Wednesday high of 48, mostly sunny! Everybody drooling over 6-10 for GSP , clouds roll in about dark , temp maybe 42 if we are lucky. Precip starts as rain for an hour or two. Then we get some decent white locusts for an hour or two, end up with a dusting , and less than the Tuesday event, then it's over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Let me give you a short synopsis of the next 2-3 days for us: slight dusting tomorrow, Wednesday high of 48, mostly sunny! Everybody drooling over 6-10 for GSP , clouds roll in about dark , temp maybe 42 if we are lucky. Precip starts as rain for an hour or two. Then we get some decent white locusts for an hour or two, end up with a dusting , and less than the Tuesday event, then it's over! Sounds good. I'll bring the beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 18z NAVGEM just came in more amped, so there's that. Chris was right, this ain't coming NW, has the Op GFS showed a solid hit yet? The Euro is a 20 mile shift from being a 1-2" event. Wouldn't be surprised if this whiffs us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I always enjoy watching people complain about the TV Mets if they don't say what people want to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 From everything I've read the past few winters I think this Fishel guy should hang it up. He's going to get someone killed one of these days always underplaying everything. Yes 9 times out of 10 you can bet the non snowy prediction in the SE but one of these days someone will listen to his stupid downplaying of an event and be put into a bad situation on the roads. It's much smarter for the good of the public to favor the worst case scenario. Yes you get pissed off people if it doesn't pan out as bad but I'd rather have pissed off people than people who's lives are put in danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just my thought on this, with even looking at the euro lastnight. There is nothing to suggest strengthening. Upper-Level dynamics suck. I think we may get some snow, but not to the magnitude some is suggesting. maybe around a inch or two for charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just my thought on this, with even looking at the euro lastnight. There is nothing to suggest strengthening. Upper-Level dynamics suck. I think we may get some snow, but not to the magnitude some is suggesting. maybe around a inch or two for charlotte. Yeah, it's a dying ULL, just don't see how this will get better, at best it holds on and the Op GFS just whiffed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Man, a bunch of negative vibes in here this evening. I thought the gfs and euro have a tendency to weaken the low prematurely? I think it will stay closed off longer than being modeled. Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Mid 40's and snow? Not sure I buy that. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah, it's a dying ULL, just don't see how this will get better, at best it holds on and the Op GFS just whiffed. GFS looks more realistic to me than the Euro and other models. Didn't really look at the models until now, but i expect the models to cave to the GFS solution tonight or tomorrow at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 System looks perfect for N. GA snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS looks more realistic to me than the Euro and other models. Didn't really look at the models until now, but i expect the models to cave to the GFS solution tonight or tomorrow at the latest. so much fail in this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The ULL is a pretty decent strength. They do tend to hold together more than shown. If we do end up getting a couple inches of snow out of the little POS moving through tonight/tomorrow, then that should add at least some credibility to the Wednesday night deal. People see all the high QPF output and pretty snow maps and weenie out and forget that those are generated under basically perfect conditions for max snow output. All you need to change is one tinsy tiny little variable and you 8" snow map across Wake County goes to 1" or less. That happens way more often than not around here. This board is overly bullish, by a long shot. That's ok though. I like it because it's a lot of fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So we're throwing out the bazillion other models in favor of the outlier GFS now lol. Personally I think some of the snowfall maps I've seen for my area seem pretty realistic. 3-5". SREF is a good bit higher with its mean which seems in line with what it has done in the past. I think somewhere between 2-6" for my area is realistic, assuming we are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 so much fail in this post. 500mb screams low struggling to survive never mind strengthen. 200mb screams jet streak will be the death of the low. Only thing going for this thing is surface effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So we're throwing out the bazillion other models in favor of the outlier GFS now lol. Personally I think some of the snowfall maps I've seen for my area seem pretty realistic. 3-5". SREF is a good bit higher with its mean which seems in line with what it has done in the past. I think somewhere between 2-6" for my area is realistic, assuming we are cold enough. I like the Euro for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 At least the comma head is over NC on the GFS, so we got that going for us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The ULL is a pretty decent strength. They do tend to hold together more than shown. If we do end up getting a couple inches of snow out of the little POS moving through tonight/tomorrow, then that should add at least some credibility to the Wednesday night deal. People see all the high QPF output and pretty snow maps and weenie out and forget that those are generated under basically perfect conditions for max snow output. All you need to change is one tinsy tiny little variable and you 8" snow map across Wake County goes to 1" or less. That happens way more often than not around here. This board is overly bullish, by a long shot. That's ok though. I like it because it's a lot of fun! Yep, when was the last time inside 48 hours, which we will be tonight, we had things trend our way. 1980? I want to see the RGEM/NAM's amp this up tonight and ram it up our fannies tonight to believe any NW possibility. The GFS Op needs to show something tonight, not a complete whiff again. The 4km NAM was fairly amped at 18z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I like the Euro for this. It's hard to go against Ukmet and Euro this winter. I think that's the safe bet for the most realistic solution. GFS is just way to inconsistent for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 so much fail in this post. Is there such thing as a fail weenie? We have alot on this board! It's two days away and they are saying fail for everybody !I just say fail imby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.