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Fab February Banter


mackerel_sky

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Why does everyone who wants to refer to weather that is upstream of us always say "downstream?" It's everywhere now, like an epidemic virus. Who started that nonsense?

 

It's to the point I almost wish people would call everything, in either direction, "upstream" for a year or so, just to even things out.

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Why does everyone who wants to refer to weather that is upstream of us always say "downstream?" It's everywhere now, like an epidemic virus. Who started that nonsense?

 

It's to the point I almost wish people would call everything, in either direction, "upstream" for a year or so, just to even things out.

 

Leave me alone!!!!!!  :bag:  :bag:  :bag:  :bag:

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You'd think they'd wanna give the city a little heads up. This storm looks snowy for atl. Why not say anything?

 

The media mets will not say much about this until/unless FFC says something concrete about it.  So perhaps after this afternoon or tomorrow morning's updated forecast discussions, if FFC picks it up and puts a watch on it, they'll say something.  Otherwise, nope.

 

Media mets around here are crazy sensitive about busts, it has always seemed to me.  So much so that they consistently underestimate events at least in public discussion (what they privately think, we of course do not know), until it's time for NowCasting when of course they are balls to the wall hype.  This conservative position is bolstered by the fact that most potential events do bust here, compared to what models show in the days before.  So on the theory that most modeled events never come to pass, they pretty much toe that line because most of the time, they'll end up on the right side of history.

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I'm excited to see a couple decent shots at snow this week for the Atlanta area. I know FFC has been (understandably) a bit trigger happy with advisories/warnings since last winter, but it looks like at the very least the metro area should see more than a trace of snow from these events. Up here we have maybe 15 posters in the winter threads and we've been 1-2"ing our way to the seasonal average, I've missed the excitement of tracking a storm with y'all for sure.

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The media mets will not say much about this until/unless FFC says something concrete about it.  So perhaps after this afternoon or tomorrow morning's updated forecast discussions, if FFC picks it up and puts a watch on it, they'll say something.  Otherwise, nope.

 

Media mets around here are crazy sensitive about busts, it has always seemed to me.  So much so that they consistently underestimate events at least in public discussion (what they privately think, we of course do not know), until it's time for NowCasting when of course they are balls to the wall hype.  This conservative position is bolstered by the fact that most potential events do bust here, compared to what models show in the days before.  So on the theory that most modeled events never come to pass, they pretty much toe that line because most of the time, they'll end up on the right side of history.

 

I've never been totally understanding about the reluctance to issue winter weather watches around here though.  A watch is a watch, it doesn't mean that winter weather is or will happen.  Now I do realize that the public can go bonkers and head to the store buying bread and milk, but no one has ever rushed to the store for bread, milk, and generators when a Tornado Watch is issued.  Heck, I bet I've been under at least 200 Tornado watches in my lifetime and the only close call I've had was back in April 1998.  I know severe weather impact and winter weather impact are totally different, but a watch is still the same concept.  If the models or conditions change, then just drop the watch, it happens.  It's not the NWS fault if Mr. and Mrs. Jones have 5 loaves of bread in their pantry! :lmao:

 

- Buck

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I've never been totally understanding about the reluctance to issue winter weather watches around here though.  A watch is a watch, it doesn't mean that winter weather is or will happen.  Now I do realize that the public can go bonkers and head to the store buying bread and milk, but no one has ever rushed to the store for bread, milk, and generators when a Tornado Watch is issued.  Heck, I bet I've been under at least 200 Tornado watches in my lifetime and the only close call I've had was back in April 1998.  I know severe weather impact and winter weather impact are totally different, but a watch is still the same concept.  If the models or conditions change, then just drop the watch, it happens.  It's not the NWS fault if Mr. and Mrs. Jones have 5 loaves of bread in their pantry! :lmao:

 

- Buck

 

I was referring to the (tv/radio) media mets, who aren't really talking about Wednesday yet, and won't until/unless FFC gets into the game.

 

With references to watches and more, of course that is all in FFC's court as media mets have nothing to do with issuance.  And in all fairness to FFC, I think they are being much more impactful this winter in their discussions and issuance of watches and advisories than they have in the past.  As a citizen I'm very pleased by their issuances this last couple of weeks.

 

To your point, I think one of the reasons that in the past, there was a panicked "bread run" at any winter watch/warn was because they were fairly rare and generally often only issued at the last minute with only hours left to go when the event was virtually guaranteed to happen - almost a nowcasting situation.  The thing last winter was almost a nowcast, that's why people were at work and on school buses.  They warned too late after people were already asleep for the night. FFC is doing hugely better this year, ensuring that if a watch goes up, it goes up such that there are some daylight hours between the watch/adv/warn and the timing of the event.  That gives people time to make decisions and communicate widely about it.

 

As for general public "bread run" panic vs. other kinds of watches, like tornado - with winter watches being issued when there is an appropriate level of RISK (not once it's a virtual guarantee that the event will happen), which is similar to what happens with warm weather storm systems, people will get used to hearing about potential winter threats and taking the appropriate level of precautions (which might not be entirely filling the pantry in a panic spree).

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I don't see what anyone is complaining about. Some folks are never satisfied. I'm the only one who should be complaining,but I don't ever expect snow here so no use in that. Also I'm getting a lot of rain this week. :)

 

I'm with you.  I'm tickled that we might see a little bit of snow this winter after all.  And not just once this week but maybe two or three times. :)

 

A little worried about our trees, some of them are injured from the freezing rain.  As much as I want to see that 6" of snow I hope it doesn't bring any more limbs down.

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Does anyone else get tired of reading posts where someone seems 100% certain that a potential storm will be north/south/east/west, colder/warmer, wetter/drier, etc...?

 

Obviously none of us know exactly what is going to happen.  Wishcasting or poo-poo-ing models, storms, mets, or other posters is not useful and makes folks look silly.  

 

I know I read the forums too much and the cumulative effect of the same attitudes by the same posters just gets old by the end of the season.  

 

Ok, rant over.  Now I'll go back to reading and watching.

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My forecast from WSPA says 36 and snow for Wednesday. 70% chance.

 

Really?  This is what they just posted at 1:30.  I didn't look at their grids so maybe it's different.

 

Wednesday & Thursday

An area of low pressure looks to track to our south Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. We'll be on the northern end of the precipitation shield, so there's some question as to how much we'll receive. Temperatures Wednesday night could also become an issue; right now this looks mostly like rain for the Upstate with snow in the mountains...but this could change if we see changes in the expected temperature profiles. Overall confidence on wintry precipitation in the Upstate is low as of now but continues to be a definite possibility we will need to watch.

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Yeah, I just checked it with the WSPA weather app.

I honestly am amazed that people even use these apps, other than perhaps to check a radar or something. I overheard a girl here talking about how all three of her weather apps gave a different forecast for tonight. One said rain, another snow, and another nothing at all. So what happens? Meteorology as a whole gets a black eye because of The Weather Channel's dumb app with its computer generated forecasts. Not sure why they don't just pull the NWS forecast and regurgitate that. It's more accurate and doesn't negatively affect anyone.

 

Wow, I got a lot more angry typing that than I expected.

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