Shawn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 LOL, Shawn, aren't you at like 250% of climo after your November surprise? I'm at about 15%. It was extremely confined to a tiny area. KCAE didn't even see accumulation downtown. Plus, Meteo Winter does not start until Dec 1st. On top of that, it all melted instantly after it stopped falling. My yard went over to rain after a bit, but 1 mile up the road it was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Hey, Cold Rain, I would reply to you in the other threads but they keep getting deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Thus, my inclusion of the phrase "(or points thereabout)". I knew you hadn't gotten any real snowfall, but I was pretty sure that Shawn has. Sooooo close, yet soooo far.....again.......sigh Ya gotta have some tough skin living between the portals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Hey, Cold Rain, I would reply to you in the other threads but they keep getting deleted. Then keep the banter here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 You heard it CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This sure is pretty for 7 days out. Let's reel it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Then keep the banter here If in doubt, leave out... that's my motto. Yes I'm guilty too, *puts train back on track* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This sure is pretty for 7 days out. Let's reel it in! Its ugly for mby, so toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Some jobs have to go on... I'm a grad student, so I was off, but my mother went to work this morning and my father would have to go if he was working today, as well (airline pilot), for example. Honestly, the roads didn't seem that bad. The sleet wasn't that hard to drive on. Yeah, they weren't too bad. All the main streets in Cary are now clear. The look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This sure is pretty for 7 days out. Let's reel it in! Boston gets it again so it must be right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This sure is pretty for 7 days out. Let's reel it in! That is the EPS (a ensemble mean) which in my opinion has been horrible this year. Wake me up when the ops are showing it (even though they haven't been much better). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah, they weren't too bad. All the main streets in Cary are now clear. The look great. All those Yankees there know how to drive in snow and ice anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Man for just getting tons of sleet when it was supposed to be too warm people sure are grumpy today about this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 All those Yankees there know how to drive in snow and ice anyway. Yes but the town knows how to plow the roads and get them clear. Looking at the roads now, a lot of them are dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Man for just getting tons of sleet when it was supposed to be too warm people sure are grumpy today about this weekend. Some people are never satisfied. If it is a threat, it is better than not having any possibility at all. I think this week is just the start of a good stretch of winter weather. It took forever to get here, but it's going to end up being good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 You heard it CR. Yeah man, stop bantering up all the threads!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Some people are never satisfied. If it is a threat, it is better than not having any possibility at all. I think this week is just the start of a good stretch of winter weather. It took forever to get here, but it's going to end up being good. Maybe for NE GA, TN, NC, Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I don't understand what people are seeing for this weekend. Maybe it's because I can only see the coarse maps on eWall. High pressure is moving out, so easterly winds are taking over by the time meager moisture is moving in. There's no additional cold air advection and there's no real system to get precip in here. With this past event, you had a fresh airmass and a real system moving in. Maybe some token flakes for some, but I don't see a lot of potential for anything more than that, unless the models are substantially misrepresenting something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I don't understand what people are seeing for this weekend. Maybe it's because I can only see the coarse maps on eWall. High pressure is moving out, so easterly winds are taking over by the time meager moisture is moving in. There's no additional cold air advection and there's no real system to get precip in here. With this past event, you had a fresh airmass and a real system moving in. Maybe some token flakes for some, but I don't see a lot of potential for anything more than that, unless the models are substantially misrepresenting something. I thought the same thing but I did look at it some more. There is some good front end potential for GSO and points west. There is good 2m wedging going on for the day on Saturday, looks like it could be front end snow to ice to rain, maybe the precip shuts off as the SLP tracks NW. Some solid precip does fall during the day on Saturday... The mountains may do very well, maybe biggest snow of the season, sadly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Pack, I see your anomaly map above. I was looking at ewall. The flow goes from west to southwest from 90 to 108, so I could see a little more precip at the end there. But the wedge looks awful on the ewall maps at 108. Weird how the anomaly map looks so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Pack, I see your anomaly map above. I was looking at ewall. The flow goes from west to southwest from 90 to 108, so I could see a little more precip at the end there. But the wedge looks awful on the ewall maps at 108. Weird how the anomaly map looks so good. Going to ride the GFS with this one, it's a similar setup for what we went through yesterday just a little further west. The GFS has us at 8F on 12z Sat, then at 24F at 18z Sat when precip moves in, at 0z Sun we are at 31F and we rise to 35F at 6z Sun. During that period we have had 0.25" QPF but GSO and points west have had much more. For us it's a nothing event, but for Franklin and his crew it could be a big winter storm. Still, lots can go wrong very easily, the biggest thing for them is getting the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Going to ride the GFS with this one, it's a similar setup for what we went through yesterday just a little further west. The GFS has us at 8F on 12z Sat, then at 24F at 18z Sat when precip moves in, at 0z Sun we are at 31F and we rise to 35F at 6z Sun. During that period we have had 0.25" QPF but GSO and points west have had much more. For us it's a nothing event, but for Franklin and his crew it could be a big winter storm. Still, lots can go wrong very easily, the biggest thing for them is getting the precip. Ok, that makes sense. Thanks for explaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Roads are going to be worse tonight than last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Whatever happened to WxMachine? Crush. Kill. Destroy. Humans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Maybe for NE GA, TN, NC, Upstate. Now I start crossing my fingers for the longest spring ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Man for just getting tons of sleet when it was supposed to be too warm people sure are grumpy today about this weekend. Agree 100%. There was no joy in Mudville, mighty Casey had struck out... I thought the same thing but I did look at it some more. There is some good front end potential for GSO and points west. There is good 2m wedging going on for the day on Saturday, looks like it could be front end snow to ice to rain, maybe the precip shuts off as the SLP tracks NW. Some solid precip does fall during the day on Saturday... The mountains may do very well, maybe biggest snow of the season, sadly... That's the spirit, Pack! Over here in WNC, we are quite excited about another opportunity so soon following this one. We won't get any snow tomorrow out of the arctic front, while you probably will. Then, we'll have the opposite scenario on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 If in doubt, leave out... that's my motto. Yes I'm guilty too, *puts train back on track* That's my wife's motto, as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_5.png Not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Roads are still sheets of ice here. Going to freeze hard tonight. I don't see the driving being much better tomorrow. Primary roads are good. Only the untreated or unplowed are questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Primary roads are good. Only the untreated or unplowed are questionable. Surprisingly a scraper just did my neighborhood. Which is nice, hopefully the kids can go back to school by Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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