Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Haha! I'm wondering who he is too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Widremann is a troll. I'm fine with everyone else. He picks the worst model runs and mocks everyone else with them. Has he mentioned the RGEM, you know, the best short range model? Of course not. I have no clue why the mods have such a short trigger with some people and allow him to go on and on and on. I guess he's figured out exactly where the line is.We're not doing modelology, we're doing, supposedly meteorology. Yes, the NAM was the worst of the bunch, but the general trend and the set up remain what they are, models or not. There's not a lot going for this storm except for the presence of cold air left over from last night's arctic front. We have no blocking, no real CAD, and no favorable SLP track. All the models agree on this, as does the current weather picture. I'm not going on and on without basis like TARHEELPROGRAMMER. I may be wrong, like anyone else, but I'm grounding my analysis in actual facts, and not weenie wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 We hate the GFS and it sucks , now we hug it! It looked like KY barely got anything that run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I kinda feel like he's trying to get people to explain why we shouldn't be concerned if there looks to be a bad step or trend or why we shouldn't be concerned about something that could pop up to ruin our storm...a later onset of precip, clouds rolling in early, limiting cooling, convection in the Gulf, etc.Right, the things that nobody talks about until they start happening. Inevitably, they do and people are surprised. Well, I'm here to tell everyone about these things ahead of time. I get labeled a troll. I suppose that's what happens in weenie world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We hate the GFS and it sucks , now we hug it! It looked like KY barely got anything that run! Please don't give me a heart attack. I drove 300 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm labeling you a martyr/troll hybrid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 lol at GFS snowfall map. Meanwhile my temp has gone up to 26.8° Sucks wind , don't it! We have GFS trending south and more QPF , now it's too warm, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Right, the things that nobody talks about until they start happening. Inevitably, they do and people are surprised. Well, I'm here to tell everyone about these things ahead of time. I get labeled a troll. I suppose that's what happens in weenie world. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Please don't give me a heart attack. I drove 300 miles.Look at the 0z map for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I kinda feel like he's trying to get people to explain why we shouldn't be concerned if there looks to be a bad step or trend or why we shouldn't be concerned about something that could pop up to ruin our storm...a later onset of precip, clouds rolling in early, limiting cooling, convection in the Gulf, etc. Fair enough, maybe it's just me. I mean I wouldn't be surprised at this point if I got the dry slot from the transfer and .25 of slop in total out of this storm. That said, I don't really think there's any way to accurately predict where that is going to occur at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Please don't give me a heart attack. I drove 300 miles. Weird 12+ all around Bowling Greene, but models saying only a dusting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm not Chickenimg out this time. On my way to bowling green Glad to hear it. Have an adventure. When I was 21, I drove to Jasper National Park (northwest of Edmonton, Alberta) and down the spine of the Rockies to Colorado over an almost three-week span all by myself. I met lots of cool people, saw incredible wildlife and scenery, all while being over 2000 miles away from any family or friends. I'll never forget that trip. I'm so glad I did it. Hope your adventure is just as awesome. I made it ! I'm staying in Red Roof Inn in Bowling Green, KY. Good choice of final location. so all the snow will be south of here ? Mack was totally messing with you. Don't make it so easy on him. I literally have not seen more than 4" of snow on the ground in 22 years. Hopefully that streak will change. I think you're going to easily surpass that mark. Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Haha! I'm wondering who he is too. Let me guess. Wilkes LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Look at the 0z map for snow I don't wanna see it. I refuse to look. This is my storm dammit and I refuse to let anything ruin my hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We're not doing modelology, we're doing, supposedly meteorology. Yes, the NAM was the worst of the bunch, but the general trend and the set up remain what they are, models or not. There's not a lot going for this storm except for the presence of cold air left over from last night's arctic front. We have no blocking, no real CAD, and no favorable SLP track. All the models agree on this, as does the current weather picture. I'm not going on and on without basis like TARHEELPROGRAMMER. I may be wrong, like anyone else, but I'm grounding my analysis in actual facts, and not weenie wishcasting. Which is why your still posting tonight, even though most of the forum want to take you outside an hang you from the tallest tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Haha! I'm wondering who he is too.Brick! He finally made that name change! And I know he has alot of pent up aggression!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Which is why your still posting tonight, even though most of the forum want to take you outside an hang you from the tallest tree. There should be an emoticon for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Which is why your still posting tonight, even though most of the forum want to take you outside an hang you from the tallest tree.It's not my fault this winter sucks. Blame Judah Cohen. Never listening to that guy again. SAI my a$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll say for those of us in the Triad the 850s look really close. The sounding from the last couple runs did seem to indicate that 800mb was overall the warmest layer but it isn't terribly far away from a lot of snow. Hell, at least it seems like we've stopped the march north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Brick! He finally made that name change! And I know he has alot of pent up aggression!? Haha! It's not like Brick to use all caps though. I'm thinking 1300m. How do the temps look on the GFS during the event? As warm as the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Please don't give me a heart attack. I drove 300 miles.Seriously, if the GFS is right, you need to turn around and go to Memphis or Tunica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Seriously, if the GFS is right, you need to turn around and go to Memphis or Tunica Stop it. That's not funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Haha! It's not like Brick to use all caps though. I'm thinking 1300m. How do the temps look on the GFS during the event? As warm as the NAM? Speaking of Brick, I'm hearing its more snow to start and longer duration before changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's not my fault this winter sucks. Blame Judah Cohen. Never listening to that guy again. SAI my a$$. So I shouldn't worry at all that the RGEM has .50 of ZR? Or the NAM or the GFS and probably the Euro tonight? Just want to make sure to discuss with you before buying into all of those models saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've had time to cool off today after the huge model flip last night at 00z. After looking at all guidance through the 00z GFS today, I still think the far Northern Midlands & Upstate have a chance to see substantial Winter weather in the form of some sleet and then the dreaded freezing rain. In fact, some modeling really wants to nail the Upstate hard with ice accumulations. NE Georgia may not be spared either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So I shouldn't worry at all that the RGEM has .50 of ZR? Or the NAM or the GFS and probably the Euro tonight? Just want to make sure to discuss with you before buying into all of those models saying the same thing.The RGEM is a bit of an oulier. And let's not take the model QPF verbatim. That's how you end up with even more disappointment than we already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'll say for those of us in the Triad the 850s look really close. The sounding from the last couple runs did seem to indicate that 800mb was overall the warmest layer but it isn't terribly far away from a lot of snow. Hell, at least it seems like we've stopped the march north. I'm having a hard time deciphering whether the GFS could be all-snow for us. Does anyone with access to the Model Center (or just Skew-Ts from somewhere else) mind taking a look? It honestly looks like it is to me. The skew-Ts from hr 27 and hr 30 look good, though I guess it could warm in between. 800 mb looks okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snowstorm , turn around , man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The RGEM is a bit of an oulier. And let's not take the model QPF verbatim. That's how you end up with even more disappointment than we already have. Come on though, you're moving the goal posts. Even if you cut those totals in half you still have .25 of ZR for a major city. That's a big deal. I hate ZR but to try to deny the implications almost every model is spitting out is a bit silly. It's not like it's even saying 32/33 and rain...most areas are around 27/28. Big difference there and with the cold temps before hand it's not going to take much for it to freeze when it does fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snowstorm , turn around , man! Heck, that still gives me at least 6". Snow ratios may be pretty high too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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