mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't care how much precip we get, the lows are going to bust hard! Cloud deck is thick, be lucky to get to 25, with a forecast of 19! The clouds will break around noon, rain rolls in around five! Worst case scenario , as someone said earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We will be out of the game come morning time. you can tell by looking at radar the precipitation shield is to far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't know how this is going to improve, no way RDU sees 1-2" of sleet/snow. This looks mostly freezing rain, not severe, but could be moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't know how this is going to improve, no way RDU sees 1-2" of sleet/snow. This looks mostly freezing rain, not severe, but could be moderate.It's not. Without blocking, we always lose. I don't know why we can't learn this lesson. I really do think it's entirely possible that this starts as RA/IP, switches briefly to sleet, then some ZR then just rain, and not a lot of any of that. We'll be on the very southern end of the precip shield, which is not a good place to be, cold air or no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think you went too far! Big shifts south with latest runs! so all the snow will be south of here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well, I see the usual downers are at it again.Let me know how to make snow cream out of sleet and freezing rain!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 so all the snow will be south of here ? If you are in Bowling Green..you are golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've got my ruler ready and I will take pictures also as proof that I am here. Just have to figure how do you post pictures on here ? Never done it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't care how much precip we get, the lows are going to bust hard! Cloud deck is thick, be lucky to get to 25, with a forecast of 19! The clouds will break around noon, rain rolls in around five! Worst case scenario , as someone said earlier This. And it's the same song and dance as about 95% of the time around here. I have now been on 32 for at least 2 hours and it's not budging. Meanwhile the dp climbs up. We easliy get above freezing (from 32) tomorrow and the precip comes in with temps comfortably above freezing and we have another cold rain with a lot of press. SIGH - next please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We absolutely must have blocking to get a major winter storm in the Carolinas. It's just the simple, despite what anyone says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The model thread has officially turned awesome. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With only the occasional exception, I rarely learn much of anything from the model discussions. Fascinating how half a dozen posters can often see three contradicting trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I literally have not seen more than 4" of snow on the ground in 22 years. Hopefully that streak will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 With only the occasional exception, I rarely learn much of anything from the model discussions. Fascinating how half a dozen posters can often see three contradicting trends.Because weenieism runs rampant. People see what they want to see instead of what's actually there. They take models at face value (when they show something good) and dismiss them otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Let me know how to make snow cream out of sleet and freezing rain!? Mack, maybe we can make an icee or some flavored crushed ice. Come on Brick, we're just licking our wounds, we'll all live and be back for the next chase ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckinbronco Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ohhh what could have been....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I literally have not seen more than 4" of snow on the ground in 22 years. Hopefully that streak will change. Your area and BNA have really sucked it up for a awhile, along with RIC and RDU. After Tuesday your area, BNA and RIC are going to get a huge winter storm. Only leaves one sucker left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 When is the last time RDU actually got the amount they were forecast to get winter weather wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm at 25.0°/-2°. Temps have stopped dropping as fast for now, but there's plenty of nightime left to get down to 20°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is a beautiful game of good troll, bad troll being played by Widre and packbacker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We should do what the MA does, create a pure vent thread, then we can keep the pinned/banter threads freed up. Then people that want to talk about what can go wrong with a winter event won't get piled on. Let's face it, outside of PGV and GSO 9 times out of 10 the events will underperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is a beautiful game of good troll, bad troll being played by Widre and packbacker. We are just realists, sad we can't speak up about it. There's a reason RDU has sucked wind for so long. I have seen Widre post positive comments about events but it's not often as we have had 2 mediocre events since Dec 2010. That's why he sounds like a broken record, along with me, it's completely sucked snow wise. This winter will suck snow wise. We are going to have another winter with no accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Because weenieism runs rampant. People see what they want to see instead of what's actually there. They take models at face value (when they show something good) and dismiss them otherwise. O My Freakin' Lord! So here we go. It was really good with 3-5 inches of snow in central NC, Hopefully other folks get some fluffy... Now it's a miller B with a - passover with 1-3 and a bunch of IP then ZR at best. No wonder we're so tired of listening to these models with 10- 20% at best verification. If I presented these type model variations in an investor meeting it would be less than an educated guess and I wouldn't be asked back. I think this is the frustration here. I know that God made economists to make weathermen look good, but it's looking the other way round in this instance. C'mon Lucy let CB get a piece. weenie for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Maybe we should see how this storm turns out before labeling it a bust 24 hours before the start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm at 25.0°/-2°. Temps have stopped dropping as fast for now, but there's plenty of nightime left to get down to 20°. This illustrates how eastern upstate seems to fare better than western upstate about 90% of the time. For situations like this when clouds come in late in the day - you guys have a couple more hours of clear skies under the stars to cool off while we get insulated. In CAD situations - you are just positioned closer to the cold air source, get below freezing sooner, and have more precip to receive while below freezing. You also have less effects of dry slotting from the mtns. The only time we do better is when the precip arrives just before daybreak - you tend to warm a couple degrees by the time it gets to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yes! I always make chili during winter weather events!! Unfortunately, I don't eat much chili. glad I'm not alone. Last time I made it they were out of jalapeños so I had to settle for poblano peppers. Hopefully HT keeps its jalapeños during this rush tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 [readitinabook]This storm will generate its own cold air.[/readitinabook] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 so all the snow will be south of here ? He's kidding. You can't chase without knowing what is going on. Do yourself a favor and NEVER try to chase tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I wish the mods would delete all these troll and fighting post in the storm thread. If you don't know what your taking about, don't post and let the experts post. Most of what's going on in the storm thread tonight is banter and messing up the enjoyment of reading it. The storm going to do what it wants and all we can do is watch. That's how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 glad I'm not alone. Last time I made it they were out of jalapeños so I had to settle for poblano peppers. Hopefully HT keeps its jalapeños during this rush tomorrow Use Anchos - dried poblanos. Makes it smokier and more sweet. Also a good pint of dark lager beer and then a bunch of chili powder to taste. Meaty, smooth, sweet, and spicy as you want it. 2 hours of simmer after everything is cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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