jburns Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That's what I'm talking about! The models this far out have been horrible all winter. We have some bad runs and everyone Wants to take them as gospel and forget about the good runs. The forum posts don't support your argument at all. When the models show something the forum lights up. When the storm disappears the forum goes dark until the next model run. You just see what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Go Seahawks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Terrible trends today. 18z GFS was awful as well as the NAM lol. What happened to good ole happy hour GFS? I'm hoping these are just some burps. Think we will know for sure if they are by tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I see recurring negativity. Writing things off this far out? What happened to let's wait and see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's hard to think this will trend back in our favor, from what now looks like a Fropa! Charleston gets a foot , to a dry frontal passage in 3 runs! Amazing consistency ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Go Seahawks ! +1 Tired of seein New England go to superbowl, i know Bradys good an all but....ah ok i admit, ive despised them since they beat the panthers. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The forum posts don't support your argument at all. When the models show something the forum lights up. When the storm disappears the forum goes dark until the next model run. You just see what you want to see. I just see it differently than you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's hard to think this will trend back in our favor, from what now looks like a Fropa! Charleston gets a foot , to a dry frontal passage in 3 runs! Amazing consistency ! So if it is so inconsistent and makes such a big change in three runs, then why should that mean it is likely correct? Just because it is bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 +1 Tired of seein New England go to superbowl, i know Bradys good an all but....ah ok i admit, ive despised them since they beat the panthers. Lol Belichick reminds me of some grumpy old men on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So if it is so inconsistent and makes such a big change in three runs, then why should that mean it is likely correct? Just because it is bad?Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I just see it differently than you do. Try seeing it this way. The first time you sign on each day and look at a model or storm thread before clicking on it and see over 100 posts added since you went to bed the night before what do you think? Now compare that to what you think when in the same situation only 10 posts have been added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I want to see snow as much as the next person in North Carolina, and as much as the next person on this message board. Once again, I take each model and each model run as a possible solution, it's not until we get within at least 3 days and we see major consistency between models before I take it as a serious possibility of what it is showing. Before the 3 days, it's just guidance. That being said, take a break, watch the Super Bowl, enjoy family and friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I dont really take the 06z and 18z runs in consideration most of the time. A wise and brilliant local meteorologist once pointed out to me the margin of error of the "in between" or secondary runs. He wrote a whole blog about it and had all the statistics and whatnot. Blends of 00z and 12z is what I usually base my interpretation off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I hate the Patriots...LOLL I hope the 'Hawks' kick some wicked ass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Try seeing it this way. The first time you sign on each day and look at a model or storm thread before clicking on it and see over 100 posts added since you went to bed the night before what do you think? Now compare that to what you think when in the same situation only 10 posts have been added.Does that still make a model right or wrong, just because one day has 100 post to another having 10 post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Go Seahawks ! Woot woot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I hate the Patriots...LOLL I hope the 'Hawks' kick some wicked ass! +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 So if it is so inconsistent and makes such a big change in three runs, then why should that mean it is likely correct? Just because it is bad?Unfortunately , Brick, in this winter, yes ! In all threats this winter, there was some bomb runs 5-10 days out, then they trend to reality ( bad) and that's what has happened every time! We have not had 1 winter threat look ugly 5-6 days out and give us snow, not 1! The freezing drizzle event was shown 5 days out, QPF was the only issue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Does that still make a model right or wrong, just because one day has 100 post to another having 10 post? Did I say it did? Please read the conversation and see the point I am trying to make. It has nothing to do with model accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 When this game is over, I will be getting ready to get kicked in the baguettes by the GFS! Can only go up from here, how much worse can you get than a cold front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I remember a couple mornings ago i got up and checked the MA forum to see what was happening with this storm today. I knew right away the trends were bad cause there were only like 2 new pages from the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Im ready for Hurricane season! This last one was very quiet, witch was a really good thing IMO, just not if you like to track storms. Ive seen alot of destruction in my guard days especially with Katrina.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Maybe the 18Z GFS is watching the Super Bowl pre-game and just mailed it in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I remember a couple mornings ago i got up and checked the MA forum to see what was happening with this storm today. I knew right away the trends were bad cause there were only like 2 new pages from the night before. Yep. Good runs generate posts. Bad runs generate silence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snowstorm hasn't posted to let us know if he made it to see Linus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Im ready for Hurricane season! This last one was very quiet, witch was a really good thing IMO, just not if you like to track storms. Ive seen alot of destruction in my guard days especially with Katrina.... I cant really get into severe weather or hurricanes for some reason. Im basically just a 'Winter' weather dude...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Off to the Superbowl I go. Will return for tonights 00z runs. If I'm out of line from drinking, please suspend my posting permissions until morning! Just kidding! See you cuties soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snowstorm hasn't posted to let us know if he made it to see Linus Oh yeah!! I totally forgot about that. I think he was headed for Indiana last i heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Does anybody remember Foxcarolina's Andy Wood? Geez what I would give to hear his opinion or input on the likes of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm staying up for the GFS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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