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Fab February Banter


mackerel_sky

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That's what I'm talking about! The models this far out have been horrible all winter. We have some bad runs and everyone Wants to take them as gospel and forget about the good runs.

The forum posts don't support your argument at all. When the models show something the forum lights up. When the storm disappears the forum goes dark until the next model run. You just see what you want to see.

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I just see it differently than you do.

Try seeing it this way. The first time you sign on each day and look at a model or storm thread before clicking on it and see over 100 posts added since you went to bed the night before what do you think? Now compare that to what you think when in the same situation only 10 posts have been added.

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I want to see snow as much as the next person in North Carolina, and as much as the next person on this message board.

 

Once again, I take each model and each model run as a possible solution, it's not until we get within at least 3 days and we see major consistency between models before I take it as a serious possibility of what it is showing. Before the 3 days, it's just guidance.

 

That being said, take a break, watch the Super Bowl, enjoy family and friends. 

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I dont really take the 06z and 18z runs in consideration most of the time. A wise and brilliant local meteorologist once pointed out to me the margin of error of the "in between" or secondary runs. He wrote a whole blog about it and had all the statistics and whatnot. Blends of 00z and 12z is what I usually base my interpretation off of. 

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Try seeing it this way. The first time you sign on each day and look at a model or storm thread before clicking on it and see over 100 posts added since you went to bed the night before what do you think? Now compare that to what you think when in the same situation only 10 posts have been added.

Does that still make a model right or wrong, just because one day has 100 post to another having 10 post?
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So if it is so inconsistent and makes such a big change in three runs, then why should that mean it is likely correct? Just because it is bad?

Unfortunately , Brick, in this winter, yes ! In all threats this winter, there was some bomb runs 5-10 days out, then they trend to reality ( bad) and that's what has happened every time! We have not had 1 winter threat look ugly 5-6 days out and give us snow, not 1! The freezing drizzle event was shown 5 days out, QPF was the only issue!
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I remember a couple mornings ago i got up and checked the MA forum to see what was happening with this storm today.

 

I knew right away the trends were bad cause there were only like 2 new pages from the night before.

Yep. Good runs generate posts. Bad runs generate silence.

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Im ready for Hurricane season! This last one was very quiet, witch was a really good thing IMO, just not if you like to track storms. Ive seen alot of destruction in my guard days especially with Katrina....

I cant really get into severe weather or hurricanes for some reason. Im basically just a 'Winter' weather dude...LOL

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