packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 1:48 AM, superjames1992 said: SREF plumes shoot down to 3.4". Screw the plumes! Looks like the culprit are the ARW members, whose mean is 0.3"... And several members now show the old goose egg! None were zero on the last run. I'm Out too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Already seeing how the SREF mean could be wrong with the track... I thought this model was amazing or something? Or is that only when it has a big Winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Man, I can't wait for a good, ol' winter storm this coming week. Been a while. Lots of snow just around the cor...aaaaaaaaaaaand it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 1:48 AM, superjames1992 said: SREF plumes shoot down to 3.4". Screw the plumes! Looks like the culprit are the ARW members, whose mean is 0.3"... Yep! Mine went from 7.43 to 3.48. Congrats, DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 1:53 AM, Shawn said: Already seeing how the SREF mean could be wrong with the track... I thought this model was amazing or something? Or is that only when it has a big Winter storm? I've never said the SREF is amazing at all. I remember how it screwed the pooch in epic fashion in Washington, D.C. in Snoquester March '13. Had a mean of 20" for them and they got an inch of slush. They could be legit or they could not be. We'll see what the other modeling does. I wouldn't mind more amping, but the SREF is obviously too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 1:37 AM, mackerel_sky said: The first new model runs of the night , are not going well, unless you live in Va! This sucks monkey ba?ls! The models have been all over the place today. Cupid taking a hit...all will be calm again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 1:54 AM, superjames1992 said: I've never said the SREF is amazing at all. I remember how it screwed the pooch in epic fashion in Washington, D.C. in Snoquester March '13. Had a mean of 20" for them and they got an inch of slush. lol, sadly I missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 1:49 AM, westmc9th said: Be fun to see all the people saying how good the SREF is in this range all of a sudden change their tune.I never have found the SREF very useful down here. When the MA gets a big storm it always seems like the SREF members line up pretty close to the mean. For our storms one will be over a foot and some will be absolutely zero. How can taking the average of all of that mess be a good way to forecast? Ok rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 1:54 AM, superjames1992 said: I've never said the SREF is amazing at all. I remember how it screwed the pooch in epic fashion in Washington, D.C. in Snoquester March '13. Had a mean of 20" for them and they got an inch of slush. They could be legit or they could not be. We'll see what the other modeling does. I wouldn't mind more amping, but the SREF is obviously too much. Just another reason why I love the SREF. watching the mid-Atlantic forum members that day was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 1:55 AM, Shawn said: lol, sadly I missed that. I mean, it might be the best model we have at this stage, but I really have no idea. I rarely use it aside from glancing at the plumes here and there in the hours before an event. We'll see what the other modeling does here in a bit. Take away the really amped ARW members and the mean is still good here (5"+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The EURO, guys. No one wanted to believe it. RAH threw it out. As of right now, it's the middle ground between the south sliding GFS and the possibly over-amped (man, that word has been used too much today) SREF, both of which have been touted all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A few days ago, didn't a Ohio met say that it would be their storm before it's all over with? We all just laughed and laughed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This winter storm is going down, but the wind makes me the trees yell timmmmbbbbbeeerrrrrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 1:45 AM, Cold Rain said: I'm out. We know where this is going. At least, we got this one within 3 days this time. Congrats, KY, VA, NY, CT, blah blah blah. Navgem leads the way again. Winter sucks and the shutout* will continue. It really is unfortunate. I'm not sure we'll have any more good chances this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think CR and RC , just jumped!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 2:04 AM, lookingnorth said: It really is unfortunate. I'm not sure we'll have any more good chances this winter. Brick says big snowstorm incoming next weekend, right after the big one Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 2:04 AM, lookingnorth said: It really is unfortunate. I'm not sure we'll have any more good chances this winter.GFS says next Friday is the One! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't ever recall models jumping around this much for an event that starts in 48 hours. But, I would think we will have a better consensus on the over running tonight. I bet the coastal potential isn't determimed until tomorrow nights 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 If Ohio is middle ground, looks like Bricks forecast is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 1:57 AM, Jonathan said: The EURO, guys. No one wanted to believe it. RAH threw it out. As of right now, it's the middle ground between the south sliding GFS and the possibly over-amped (man, that word has been used too much today) SREF, both of which have been touted all day long. I hate to say you're right, but it's little concerning. I'm having hard time buying the phase with GL low, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The storm after the next one will be ours.. Doubtful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's like when the football gets taken away from Charlie Brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I feel for the mods. We have "hella wind" and "decent flizzard in Mebane" in the disco thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looking like the NAM is about to say; "I love SREF logisitcs!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam coming in north, somebody get the lights , this is over, worst winter in history! And to think we entertained the supression idea, stupid us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm trespassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 2:11 AM, Jonathan said: I feel for the mods. We have "hella wind" and "decent flizzard in Mebane" in the disco thread... Not to worry. It was there for less than a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yep, out to 24 hours and this thing is going to Ohio. Wow. NWS can drop the winter storm watches for AL, GA, SC and most of NC. May need to raise some flash flood watches in some areas, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yep the shutout is still on. Now to get the big cold snap late next week out of here. i'm ready for 70's and storms . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On 2/15/2015 at 2:14 AM, eekuasepinniW said: I'm trespassing. OMG! Eek!!! Haven't seen that name in a thread in years! It's like I've saw a ghost. A relic from an earlier time. I'm hyped! On 2/15/2015 at 2:14 AM, jburns said: Not to worry. It was there for less than a minute. Efforts are appreciated! The thread has stayed fairly clean all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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