stormtracker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 thru 42 hrs. NAM already has slightly higher heights in the east vs. 12z (deja vu) watch this go right over us in the end Well, I will say this..im out 60 and the streams are closer than 12z...still will miss tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Well, I will say this..im out 60 and the streams are closer than 12z...still will miss tho I'm not necessarily looking for a big one, just 3"+ will make me quite happy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm not necessarily looking for a big one, just 3"+ will make me quite happy at this point. Partial phase at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 much better sim rad at 60 hrs vs. 66 on 12z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_060_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150202+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 much better sim rad at 60 hrs vs. 66 on 12z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_060_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150202+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model It's a closer miss. Yay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It's a closer miss. Yay?come on man, baby steps in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Nam continues the trend of digging and an earlier phase. Heights ahead of the digging northern stream rise and try to aim that slug of moisture coming out of the GOM toward the mid atl. Develops a Low right off Cape Hatt, getting STJ involved somewhat would keep us away from the typical Miller B whiff. Trending better as we get closer for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Looks to me like the northern stream vort needs to slow down or the southern stream vort needs to speed up. ETA: They look like they are almost in lock step until it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Well its getting better every run. I have a good feeling about this one for some reason. When people aren't really paying attention is when it sneaks up. Sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Well its getting better every run. I have a good feeling about this one for some reason. When people aren't really paying attention is when it sneaks up. Sometimes. Well it seems like the models have all been taking a crap inside of three days... why can't it work the other direction? Except of course because of where we live... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It's a closer miss. Yay? We know how big steps work out for us this year... They step right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The bigger issue with the nam is the precip that does fall is mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The bigger issue with the nam is the precip that does fall is mostly rain.of course it does, it's still the winter of 14 / 15 isn't it? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The bigger issue with the nam is the precip that does fall is mostly rain. That seems relevant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The bigger issue with the nam is the precip that does fall is mostly rain. Temps in the upper 30s, but cold up above. This is why for this to work out we need a full/earlier phase. ATJ s/w phasing in would ensure tons of cold air to work with as the storm cranks up off the coast. Personally I like where we are headed with this if the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 That seems relevant... I'm going to modify my final call to include .1 - .3 of precip and/or 1-3" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Actually, ncep maps looked like wet snow, but I don't have the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 For Philly and DC there is no confluence out ahead of the shortwave diving down so the BL would be quite warm. The only 2 ways this could be a snowstorm in my eyes is if the shortwave dove down SE of us and closed off which looks unlikely. Or the system remains very weak and we only get some frontal snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm going to modify my final call to include .1 - .3 of precip and/or 1-3" of snow Looking to add another 33 and rain to the board...fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The bigger issue with the nam is the precip that does fall is mostly rain. of course it does, it's still the winter of 14 / 15 isn't it? Lol Yep, I'll go .5-.75 liquid (that would be rain) for entire MA and 33-36 degrees why mess with the prevailing pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 The bigger issue with the nam is the precip that does fall is mostly rain. Which was something that was in the back of my mind when I began this threat the other day (again, apologies folks...but hey... at least we're not talking about a SLP crossing Orlando now!) This is toward the end of my first post at the top of this thread: "So a northward trend with the southern stream wave would not surprise me one bit over the coming days. (A rainstorm would however, though it shouldn't considering how this winter has gone)" I mean, this crazy shift from cold/dry/suppressed to warm/wet seems to be the theme this winter. One thing that has been a constant though -- this more recent storm was picked up quite well by the globals in the 6-7 day range, while the Feb 5-6 system was *also* picked up several days ago. It's almost as if the medium range progs have a better handle on things than the models within 72 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Are there any EURO ensembles that close off the ULL near us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 i would punt this and close the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It's a bigger miss on the 18z GFS. The 00z runs will be telling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 SE VA/NE NC special? (I would post in our topic but it was locked) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 i would punt this and close the threadMight be the first thread for a cold front passage this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The GFS will come around at 12z today. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Looks as if this is a dud, and nearly impossible to phase together until off the coast, and that, only as a glorified frontal passge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Looks as if this is a dud, and nearly impossible to phase together until off the coast, and that, only as a glorified frontal passge. Nice username... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Low gets pushed offshore in 0z NAM. The limited amount of precipitation we get is snow, so I guess it's an improvement over the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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