stormtracker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I know there was a run or two of the Canadian or something that had a decent event to our south. It is somewhat intriguing though the overwhelming consensus is for nothing too exciting.. the 500mb flow is flat and northern stream dominated. The anafront idea might be about the best/most believable one that's come out of it so far. Even that's a tough one to do well on here though. Anafront=wraparound=unicorn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Anafront=wraparound=unicorn GFS has a few hours of flurries. Impressive 850 punch behind though. A Tenman superfront? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 GFS=Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 GFS=Next it would be cool if it showed a next..betting it doesn't though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 it would be cool if it showed a next..betting it doesn't though If we use history as a guide it should give us some awesome cold and wind followed by a rainstorm within 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 My forecast for every event for the rest of the winter is light to sometimes moderate rain followed by a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I think we are just making threads now hoping we catch something. I feel like Seattle. Yeah, our storm was picked off by New England at the goal line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 My forecast for every event for the rest of the winter is light to sometimes moderate rain followed by a cold front. ^^^ This, just add strong NW winds with front passage and don't think you can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 ^^^ This, just add strong NW winds with front passage and don't think you can go wrong. We do seem to do well at wind advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Taking a look at the 500mb 12z, 6z, & 0z you can see that the GFS is still trying to resolve how far that ATJ s/w (dropping in from Canada) wants to dig. You can see with each run the s/w is dropping in further west/digging & amplifying more which fits what has been happening all winter with these s/w's. If this continues we phase earlier and would be looking a drastically different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Euro digs and phases but develops a low along the Arctic Front in PA. 850s well south of us but I cant tell surface or precip (using free maps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Another NE Bomb, christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Another NE Bomb, christ. Ian might be on to something with that atmospheric memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Another NE Bomb, christ. Yup captured slow mover too. That northern stream on EURO is too dominant, the southern stream energy isn't able to spin up a surface LP. All we can hope for is the trend to dig continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It's a NE bomb, but the Euro has moved the low closer to the coast each run for the last few days. As it is right now, the front is a 1-2" event DC and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 95% of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine are buried in 2-3' of snow by the weekend based on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Yup captured slow mover too. That northern stream on EURO is too dominant, the southern stream energy isn't able to spin up a surface LP. All we can hope for is the trend to dig continues. Comparing 66 from 12z to 78 from 0z, the vort is digging at least 100 miles further south. Too little to late as it stands but seeing a south trend inside of d4 is a lot better than seeing a north trend. Been there doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It's a NE bomb, but the Euro has moved the low closer to the coast each run for the last few days. As it is right now, the front is a 1-2" event DC and north. yeah...1", 2" for NW burbs...will be an nice appetizer for the 6-8" weekend event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Comparing 66 from 12z to 78 from 0z, the vort is digging at least 100 miles further south. Too little to late as it stands but seeing a south trend inside of d4 is a lot better than seeing a north trend. Been there doing that. Agree Bob, i've noticed mostly all the 12Z global runs dig further south-west coming out of Canada compared to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I've stopped measuring this year.....well...not on purpose but you know what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Fools gold. Probably. But more valuable fools gold than the d6-8 dealie. I'm going 1-3". Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Probably. But more valuable fools gold than the d6-8 dealie. I'm going 1-3". Final call. At this point I would take 3 in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Probably. But more valuable fools gold than the d6-8 dealie. I'm going 1-3". Final call. Seems a little wishcasty to me but if I stay strongly against it the odds of it happening are better so I'll take one for the team if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Seems a little wishcasty to me but if I stay strongly against it the odds of it happening are better so I'll take one for the team if needed. Probably. Toggle the euro h5 @ 66 today and 78 from last night. Part wishcast part vortschool trend class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 12z EPS jogs west of the 00z for this event. Closer clustered, too. Not really sure that helps us though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 12z EPS jogs west of the 00z for this event. Closer clustered, too. Not really sure that helps us though.... Also a lot more Ls NW of us prior.. looks like it's more Miller Bish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Also a lot more Ls NW of us prior.. looks like it's more Miller Bish. ahhh - yes, went from basically zero Miller Bs to 12 or so. Looks like it's less clustered in that sense, but later on (84hr) a bit more certainty in this run that the thing won't just go straight out to sea ala the GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 ahhh - yes, went from basically zero Miller Bs to 12 or so. Looks like it's less clustered in that sense, but later on (84hr) a bit more certainty in this run that the thing won't just go straight out to sea ala the GFS op. Looks like it's about half and half at 72... This is partly why I'm not too interested in any "good trends"... they will end up bad in the end. Northern stream amping "just in time" works out almost never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 thru 42 hrs. NAM already has slightly higher heights in the east vs. 12z (deja vu) watch this go right over us in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Doesn't look bad at hr 54... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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