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Feb 5-6 Threat


WxMan1

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What exactly are we tracking?

 

We're tracking what Boston was tracking six days out.  It's there...  I can sense it... We just can't see it on the models yet...

 

<<sniffs the air>>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

<<realizes that wasn't air, it was a whiteboard marker>>

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...and yet the UKmet at hour 120 looks like a rainstorm.  

 

Without a doubt --  the majority of the global operational runs and ensembles are supressed - offshore with this system. The GFS and GEM have trended more suppressed as well. 

 

It may not be over, but it's darn close.  Ugh.

 

#ThreadStarter=EventJinx

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...and yet the UKmet at hour 120 looks like a rainstorm.  

 

Without a doubt --  the majority of the global operational runs and ensembles are supressed - offshore with this system. The GFS and GEM have trended more suppressed as well. 

 

It may not be over, but it's darn close.  Ugh.

 

#ThreadStarter=EventJinx

See what you done?

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The EURO ens like Feb 10-11 it seems for some kind of large storm. 

 

I see that too.

 

Guess who won't be starting a thread for Feb 10-11 (hint: me!)  

 

We still have February. Long term signals for the AO and NAO are mixed (see AO below).  We'll see.  At this point, I'd just rather be lucky than good :)

post-1263-0-50927500-1422738953_thumb.gi

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...and yet the UKmet at hour 120 looks like a rainstorm.

Without a doubt -- the majority of the global operational runs and ensembles are supressed - offshore with this system. The GFS and GEM have trended more suppressed as well.

It may not be over, but it's darn close. Ugh.

#ThreadStarter=EventJinx

I think this event is DOA, but it's nothing to do with what the models show at 120.

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I don't even worry about what the ens guidance shows for the AO/NAO anymore. AO is going to bounce around but never tank and stay there. Thats pretty clear at this point. Also not likely we will see anymore than a faux transient, completely ineffective neg NAO. If we are going to get a snowstorm, its going to be Pacific driven, and/or maybe we time something with a PV split without too much suppression. Otherwise its more of the same with the same risks- lower pressure over the GL, untimely SE ridges, and storms cutting west.

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Euro Thursday is like 1" tops for DC, maybe 2" burbs

Baby steps,  all we need is for the low way to our south to shift as far north as tonight's low, it was forecast to track over ORF,  now its forecast to track to northeastern Ohio.  Funny how the models trend north when we're forecast to get snow on day 4....let's see if they can do it when the low is too far to the south.  Probably not but we can hope.

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Baby steps,  all we need is for the low way to our south to shift as far north as tonight's low, it was forecast to track over ORF,  now its forecast to track to northeastern Ohio.  Funny how the models trend north when we're forecast to get snow on day 4....let's see if they can do it when the low is too far to the south.  Probably not but we can hope.

 

Yes, a glimmer of hope, at least something to keep an eye on.  I'm not overly big on later this week, perhaps because this current storm has been so disappointing it's colored my mood.  My feeling is that the suppression is real this time and it ends up well to our south, while we're cold and dry.  But I'll gladly be wrong if we get some good snow in the end!

 

It's interesting (depressing?) just how far north the system this weekend is going, it practically won't stop!  I've kept a somewhat interested eye on northern OH (the ol' home town for me!), just to see what's going on up there.  I mentioned this in the Feb. 1-2 thread, but it's looking almost like even KCLE could mix at this point.  The forecast office there has certainly dropped the snow amounts, and their discussions also mentioned the concern of just how far north that gets.

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Baby steps,  all we need is for the low way to our south to shift as far north as tonight's low, it was forecast to track over ORF,  now its forecast to track to northeastern Ohio.  Funny how the models trend north when we're forecast to get snow on day 4....let's see if they can do it when the low is too far to the south.  Probably not but we can hope.

The north trend this year only works to screw us, not to benefit us.  There is zero chance the end of the week storms moves north. I would bet my life on it.

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The north trend this year only works to screw us, not to benefit us.  There is zero chance the end of the week storms moves north. I would bet my life on it.

Except Jan 30th 2010 but that was a year like last year when all chances succeeded.   The latest GFS says your life is probably safe.  

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