WVclimo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GOM low pressure goes out to sea at FLL lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 squash city on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Strange Day 9-10 event on EURO, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What exactly are we tracking? We're tracking what Boston was tracking six days out. It's there... I can sense it... We just can't see it on the models yet... <<sniffs the air>> <<realizes that wasn't air, it was a whiteboard marker>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 ...and yet the UKmet at hour 120 looks like a rainstorm. Without a doubt -- the majority of the global operational runs and ensembles are supressed - offshore with this system. The GFS and GEM have trended more suppressed as well. It may not be over, but it's darn close. Ugh. #ThreadStarter=EventJinx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ...and yet the UKmet at hour 120 looks like a rainstorm. Without a doubt -- the majority of the global operational runs and ensembles are supressed - offshore with this system. The GFS and GEM have trended more suppressed as well. It may not be over, but it's darn close. Ugh. #ThreadStarter=EventJinx See what you done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 See what you done? Haha...remember...Mother Nature holds all the cards. Sorry about the banter...we'll see what the 12Z EC ensembles show.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The EURO ens like Feb 10-11 it seems for some kind of large storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 The EURO ens like Feb 10-11 it seems for some kind of large storm. I see that too. Guess who won't be starting a thread for Feb 10-11 (hint: me!) We still have February. Long term signals for the AO and NAO are mixed (see AO below). We'll see. At this point, I'd just rather be lucky than good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ...and yet the UKmet at hour 120 looks like a rainstorm. Without a doubt -- the majority of the global operational runs and ensembles are supressed - offshore with this system. The GFS and GEM have trended more suppressed as well. It may not be over, but it's darn close. Ugh. #ThreadStarter=EventJinx I think this event is DOA, but it's nothing to do with what the models show at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't even worry about what the ens guidance shows for the AO/NAO anymore. AO is going to bounce around but never tank and stay there. Thats pretty clear at this point. Also not likely we will see anymore than a faux transient, completely ineffective neg NAO. If we are going to get a snowstorm, its going to be Pacific driven, and/or maybe we time something with a PV split without too much suppression. Otherwise its more of the same with the same risks- lower pressure over the GL, untimely SE ridges, and storms cutting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Phase incoming on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 so close but so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I will fill in for JI, "Always 10 days away!" Not just JI. There are many on this board who feel the same way this winter but don't vocalize. It's not our year. Of course there are the occasional under 90 hour Lucy footballs too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wouldn't surprise me if this is the best event this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I admittedly just started flowing this but I'm still trying to figure out where the storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Don't go too far out in that limb! Well, we had a 5" or so in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You'll see over the next day or so Yep, a ns vort diving down and underneath the arctic front and scoring a little juice from the ss leftover. Might be a squish job. Might be a good hit. Might even be rain. 18z gefs members say take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I admittedly just started flowing this but I'm still trying to figure out where the storm is. Following storms that were actually modeled hasn't worked too well this winter, so why not this? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ukmet appears to have a big storm of hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=9999&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow ggem extremely close. Looks like ukue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro Thursday is like 1" tops for DC, maybe 2" burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro Thursday is like 1" tops for DC, maybe 2" burbs Baby steps, all we need is for the low way to our south to shift as far north as tonight's low, it was forecast to track over ORF, now its forecast to track to northeastern Ohio. Funny how the models trend north when we're forecast to get snow on day 4....let's see if they can do it when the low is too far to the south. Probably not but we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Baby steps, all we need is for the low way to our south to shift as far north as tonight's low, it was forecast to track over ORF, now its forecast to track to northeastern Ohio. Funny how the models trend north when we're forecast to get snow on day 4....let's see if they can do it when the low is too far to the south. Probably not but we can hope. Yes, a glimmer of hope, at least something to keep an eye on. I'm not overly big on later this week, perhaps because this current storm has been so disappointing it's colored my mood. My feeling is that the suppression is real this time and it ends up well to our south, while we're cold and dry. But I'll gladly be wrong if we get some good snow in the end! It's interesting (depressing?) just how far north the system this weekend is going, it practically won't stop! I've kept a somewhat interested eye on northern OH (the ol' home town for me!), just to see what's going on up there. I mentioned this in the Feb. 1-2 thread, but it's looking almost like even KCLE could mix at this point. The forecast office there has certainly dropped the snow amounts, and their discussions also mentioned the concern of just how far north that gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Maybe next Sun-Mon will verify. I mean you would think just one event over 6 inches could happen one time before our window start closing. But the evolution on the Euro looks so wonky to me I just can't imagine it verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Baby steps, all we need is for the low way to our south to shift as far north as tonight's low, it was forecast to track over ORF, now its forecast to track to northeastern Ohio. Funny how the models trend north when we're forecast to get snow on day 4....let's see if they can do it when the low is too far to the south. Probably not but we can hope. The north trend this year only works to screw us, not to benefit us. There is zero chance the end of the week storms moves north. I would bet my life on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GFS 500 looks very flat through 93h. And there's a 1036H pressing down (probably in the spot where we needed it for today). I don't see it doing it this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The north trend this year only works to screw us, not to benefit us. There is zero chance the end of the week storms moves north. I would bet my life on it. Except Jan 30th 2010 but that was a year like last year when all chances succeeded. The latest GFS says your life is probably safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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