WxMan1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yesterday the globals outside of the EC had a signal that the southern stream wave could lift north enough to make it quite interesting for the mid Atlantic. The EC meanwhile was HP dominant, cold/dry and supressed. Haven't looked at the latest (00Z 1/31) EC/GEM/UK, but I see that even at 06Z the GFS is close, while showing hints of a fairly elongated deformation band.Perhaps this go around we can lock in the low around 50/50 (our Feb 1-2 system), though at least for now it would appear the UL confluence and SHP are suppressed too far south for our liking during this period. But then again, we know how the trends have been this winter (transient/no blocking). So a northward trend with the southern stream wave would not surprise me one bit over the coming days. (A rainstorm would however, though it shouldn't considering how this winter has gone)Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think a thread started by a met is one I'm going all in for. Seriously, I like this period, and I think it's our last chance until the second half of the month. It's been on the models for a while, and has potential if things can just come together - perhaps even at the last minute. My wife just looked over my shoulder, saw me looking at a new storm thread, and said "no chance, forget about it!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The way this winter has gone for us, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a suppressed system give a good snowfall to the southern Mid-Atlantic and leave us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We are due for a system that gets sheared to bits by the northern stream so I'll take that option for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No denying the NS for sure. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No denying the NS for sure. Brutal. I take comfort in too far se right now. A lot of comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 12Z GFS this morning is not too far from being a snow event. All we need is the the northern stream system to our north to be a little weaker and exit faster and the trough that produces the snow to NC would have room to deepen a bit more without getting sheared. Not an impossible feat given that the last two system have amplified enough to track storms to our north but we need changes to our north us to have much hope or need to slow the shortwave over the south a bit. However, as Ian says we're probably due for a sheared system and it would be kind of funny to see RDU get snow while we sit cold andd dry to see how Ji would handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 12Z GFS this morning is not too far from being a snow event. All we need is the the northern stream system to our north to be a little weaker and exit faster and the trough that produces the snow to NC would have room to deepen a bit more without getting sheared. Not an impossible feat given that the last two system have amplified enough to track storms to our north but we need changes to our north us to have much hope or need to slow the shortwave over the south a bit. However, as Ian says we're probably due for a sheared system and it would be kind of funny to see RDU get snow while we sit cold andd dry to see how Ji would handle it. With the way this winter has gone after all the hype about how bad it was to be, I'll pick this option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 A storm that happens 5 years to the date of Snowmageddon had better deliver here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 With the way this winter has gone after all the hype about how bad it was to be, I'll pick this option. Sadly, yes. It would not be a surprise. We probably need to wait until tomorrow evening at earliest to have the evolution of our slop to rain (or drizzle/fog) system get properly sampled. But...the signal is there. We need all the the good karma we can get right now. 5 year anniversary of Snowmageddon...would be nice to see some snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm all in with the UKMET after it nailed this next event being far north. 00z Ukie had the makings of a MECS @ 144 hours ALLL ABBBBOOARD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You guys.....smh. One day, you're going to get tired of this ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm all in with the UKMET after it nailed this next event being far north. 00z Ukie had the makings of a MECS @ 144 hours ALLL ABBBBOOARD you haven't seen HM latest tweet, it took an INLAND TRACK despite blocking, gulp!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You guys.....smh. One day, you're going to get tired of this ****. Its a seasonal affliction. Like SAD. It passes as the sun angle increases and the days get longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Don't act like you won't be hooked when this comes around......you'll be staying up late for the Euro. You guys.....smh. One day, you're going to get tired of this ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 You guys.....smh. One day, you're going to get tired of this ****. Agreed. For me though, when the first week in Feb was in la-la land (240 hrs and beyond), the sense at that time was that our first system here on the 1st-2nd was going to be rain for us, but that our better chance could be with that next southern stream wave around the 5th-6th. The models have since trended south and now back north again with this first system, with the focus still on the next system, which at least for now is our best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hard to tell what goes on between hr 96 and 120 seems it would be a little east to me for now. 0z euro ens were way north of the op with the precip and a huge area as well but slid east, it did make it to Orf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wes, the last 3 runs of the gfs have been close. Your post sums it up nicely. Models have overdone lower heights and suppression in the medium range quite often the last month. Doesn't mean they're wrong this time of course. I think we stand a shot at a cold overrunning scenario with the ns vort amplifying enough and grabbing some juice from ss vort and sending it our way from the tn valley. A coastal storm affecting us seems the least likely scenario right now. I'm pretty sure between now and monday morning we are going to get "the run" that drags everybody back in. The mood will be timid, edgy, paranoid and possibly psychotic. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That is the 12z ukie, I was talking about the 00z Ukie which looked like this...For the last event it was very far east which verified, and it has been very far north for this event and that looks like it is about to verify. It has the hot hand Didn't realize 12z was out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GGEM is very close to a major snow event...I believe it buries parts of the SE but idk without precip maps (@ 144) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GGEM is very close to a major snow event...I believe it buries parts of the SE but idk without precip maps (@ 144) Squished right off the coast. Small jackpot in eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Squished right off the coast. Small jackpot in eastern NC. Which is fine at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Squished right off the coast. Small jackpot in eastern NC.Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 There is a nice arctic front that clears SE Canada Day 5, it locks in the cold, so if we can get the shortwave to be stronger the setup is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Squished right off the coast. Small jackpot in eastern NC.This will be the time when that holds and suppression will win...hopefully we have all dialed back our expectation to near zero..this last fail was most painful one so far this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Posted this in another forum, but what I'm seeing right now; 1) Small western ridge helps 2) Arctic front clears SE Canada this Wednesday. It locks in a pretty potent HP in the perfect spot. Kind of creates a pseudo 50/50 3) Potent energy on dropping in from PAC NW... 4) What would help is if we could get a 2nd shrotwave to dive down to kind of hook the initial trough negative. If that can happen I think we got a good setup for a Mid Atlantic Snowstorm 5) At least it is something to look at to get our minds off of this POS event Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So much discussion steered by DC residents. In N MD, we shall get some frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can't wait for the EURO Storm seems to have forgotten to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I like the euro. It can only get better from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I like the euro. It can only get better from here. Yes, a high directly overhead is generally bad news for a storm. Any shift would be positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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