Joe4alb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol post the cras also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SREF only 3" for LAG as 2mT goes pass 32degs. briefly. Only one member at 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol post the cras also Someone did in the Philly forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 19 in west Newark. 50's around Toms River, impressive. That's a CAD scenario along the Hudson Valley, draining into the city/burbs. Given the extent of the cold and its supply (this is by no means stale or retreating), I doubt the city and the boroughs go to anything other than sleet. A changeover to rain is nearly off the table given this regimen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12Z Euro cuts the Island in Half... More Snow and Sleet on the North Shore... Lot less Snow on the South Shore more freezing rain than snow... Guess we can use the L.I.E. as the rule of thumb... Purely just reading the text output (not saying this is going to happen). Islip Airport gets .6 of Ice Accumlation from Freezing Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12Z Euro cuts the Island in Half... More Snow and Sleet on the North Shore... Lot less Snow on the South Shore more freezing rain than snow... Guess we can use the L.I.E. as the rule of thumb... Purely just reading the text output (not saying this is going to happen). Islip Airport gets .6 of Ice Accumlation from Freezing Rain. 12Z Point_Click for ISLIP Airport.PNG Yes this is a major ice storm potential. I do not see anyone, save the immediate s shore of LI potentially, being Rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 a homer because i called someone out for only saying trenton was getting an inch...i dont even live in trenton haahahahahahahah...and i live in nw suffolk not se Li pls stop attacking people personally As someone who lives in Trenton, I think 1 to 3 inches is a really good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I see the NWS putting the city and Northern Nassau and NE suffolk in WSW and south and east of there advisory.Disagree. All will be under winter storm warnings. I don't see us changing to rain.Edit: Maybe parts of central nj and eastern LI under advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12Z Euro cuts the Island in Half... More Snow and Sleet on the North Shore... Lot less Snow on the South Shore more freezing rain than snow... Guess we can use the L.I.E. as the rule of thumb... Purely just reading the text output (not saying this is going to happen). Islip Airport gets .6 of Ice Accumlation from Freezing Rain. 12Z Point_Click for ISLIP Airport.PNG In comparison where I work just North of the LIE in Commack and only a few miles away from the airport, not as much ice accumulation as there was at the Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12Z Euro cuts the Island in Half... More Snow and Sleet on the North Shore... Lot less Snow on the South Shore more freezing rain than snow... Guess we can use the L.I.E. as the rule of thumb... Purely just reading the text output (not saying this is going to happen). Islip Airport gets .6 of Ice Accumlation from Freezing Rain. 12Z Point_Click for ISLIP Airport.PNG Winds switch to E at Islip during the meat of the storm. Good chance coastal areas go to rain on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Split the difference between the GFS and ECMWF for now and wait a few more runs to refine. PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA ROBUST SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN GOES RGB/WV SAT IMAGERY DIGGINGSOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS ENERGY ISEXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ITMOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATER SUNDAY AND THEN EAST ACROSSTHE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHMONDAY. THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN DEVELOPINGSURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE BY LATER TODAYOVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WHICH WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND TRACKGENERALLY NEAR THE OH RIVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ONMONDAY...THIS LOW WILL REDEVELOP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER THECENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC AND LIFT NORTHEAST JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND ON MONDAY.THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED JUST A TAD WEAKER AND MORE SUPPRESSED WITHITS LOW TRACK COMPARED TO ITS 00Z RUN...AND SUGGESTS A LOW TRACKJUST A TAD NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. CONVERSELY...THE 12Z GFS HASTRENDED SLOWER/DEEPER ALOFT AND THUS A BIT STRONGER WITH ITSSURFACE LOW. THE 12Z UKMET WHICH RUN TO RUN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYSNOW HAS BEEN ON THE STRONG SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...IS ALSOCLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS...ALTHOUGH THE UKMET IS GENERALLY A BIT NORTHOF THE . THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE GFS AND UKMETIMPLY NOTABLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE OHVALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THEIR LOW TRACKSARE THE FARTHEST NORTH SOLUTIONS.THE 12Z GEM IS A SLOWER AND MORE SUPPRESSED OUTLIER SOLUTION NOWWITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BE DISMISSED. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDEDA LITTLE FARTHER NORTH/WARMER...AND IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER ANDWEAKER THAN THE 12Z GFS. BY MON...THE 12Z NAM BECOMES THEWEAKEST/FASTEST SOLUTION...WITH THE GEM THE SLOWEST. THE MULTI-DAYTREND TREND IN THE GUIDANCE GOING BACK TO YESTERDAY CONTINUES TOFAVOR A STRONGER AND WARMER SOLUTION FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EASTACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND ALSO NOW SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BASED ONTHE LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL CLUSTERING...A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFSAND 12Z ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think model hugging is at an all time high. One or several of these models are going to bust and I can't wait. This pattern has some tricks up her sleeve. Fun times ahead Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 WPC is near 100% for at least 4" in NYC and then begins dropping, to 20% by 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In comparison where I work just North of the LIE in Commack and only a few miles away from the airport, not as much ice accumulation as there was at the Airport. 12Z Euro Commack.PNG and Just a few miles South at my home locale East Islip... Not much front end snow and mostly Freezing Rain, Mix and plain rain... I'm sure this will switch on the next runs but the potential certainly exists for ice verbatim of the 12Z Euro across the South Shore... Plain rain as well since temps get up to a max of 37 between 12z and 18z before falling back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If there it's a raiN threat, freezing rain advisory could happen I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 and Just a few miles South at my home locale East Islip... Not much front end snow and mostly Freezing Rain, Mix and plain rain... I'm sure this will switch on the next runs but the potential certainly exists for ice verbatim of the 12Z Euro across the South Shore... Plain rain as well since temps get up to a max of 37 between 12z and 18z before falling back. Euro 12z East Islip South Shore.JPG Last one I'm going to Post... Central Park NYC... Euro Still sees mostly snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM and GFS are about 6" by the Cobb Method @LGA. NAM wastes liquid equiv. as IcePellets and GFS wastes it as plain Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't see why this wouldn't keep ticking north at this point and there's plenty more time to do so. I say it's mostly rain south of 78 and the Gfs will end up being correct. I'll feel even more confident about this if the next two runs of the gfs continue to tick north and warmer. The danger of flooding will be real if the warm trend continues as it'll start impacting areas that had 2'+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't see why this wouldn't keep ticking north at this point and there's plenty more time to do so. I say it's mostly rain south of 78 and the Gfs will end up being correct. I'll feel even more confident about this if the next two runs of the gfs continue to tick north and warmer. The danger of flooding will be real if the warm trend continues as it'll start impacting areas that had 2'+ of snow. The Euro isn't crapping the bed two events in a row, the GFS will be wrong on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Euro isn't crapping the bed two events in a row, the GFS will be wrong on this one It will be another great test for the new upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It will be another great test for the new upgrades. I think the last event the complexity of it caused the Euro gaff, this is a fairly straightforward event as far as the synoptic setup goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 15z SREF gets the rain/snow like to Rt 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't see why this wouldn't keep ticking north at this point and there's plenty more time to do so. I say it's mostly rain south of 78 and the Gfs will end up being correct. I'll feel even more confident about this if the next two runs of the gfs continue to tick north and warmer. The danger of flooding will be real if the warm trend continues as it'll start impacting areas that had 2'+ of snow. It's not going to keep ticking north b/c we've seen about the strongest tilt storm you can have that runs into a CAD and 50/50. I think the projections by the models are too far North as is. I think we've hit a ceiling on northward trends. It either stays right around where it is or it ticks south, as the models get a better handle on the cold air dam. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think the last event the complexity of it caused the Euro gaff, this is a fairly straightforward event as far as the synoptic setup goes. question though, we definitely have a variety of model solutions on the table for a simple synoptic setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Euro isn't crapping the bed two events in a row, the GFS will be wrong on this one But the Euro came in warmer 12z today than 0z Saturday and the Friday 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 15z SREF gets the rain/snow like to Rt 80 is that rain/snow, or snow/mix (something else). I'm on my phone so can't check right this second, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z nams coming in a bit North, more amped yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can we clarify what is coming North please? SLP? Precip shield? 850s? Surface freezing line? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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