Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Anyone got one of then eurowx snow maps? Arent thought the wx bell maps, I was curious about the eurowx.com which use evan kuchera algorithm for.snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 This one not as generous. Not sure what algorithm they use for ratios but their 12" swath is wayyyy overdone imo Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol those maps are so different from each other its a joke really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This one not as generous. Sent from my iPhone You can clearly see on this map that the system went north again. Ignore the Wxbell maps, they're always overdone and count sleet as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Those maps likely count sleet as snow. Not to rain on the parade too much but we can't ignore that the Euro nudged north again. Another nudge (common in these types of systems) and it looks a lot more like the GFS. jma is south apparently ggem and euro are very similar and the rgem and nam look more like the euro and ggem than the gfs and ukie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 You can clearly see on this map that the system went north again. Ignore the Wxbell maps, they're always overdone and count sleet as snow. This eurowx map is wat more amped up than the wxbell maps.. Wxbell maps 12" swath isn't nearly as large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol those maps are so different from each other its a joke really That's cause wxbell uses 10:1 basic And eurowx uses and algorithm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not much CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So altogether, even staying positive, I think it'd be completely false to say that the trends are GOOD for an all snow event for NYC. However, I would think that a stronger system and more of a negative tilt, though leading to more mixing, would also lead to better backend snows falling into quickly cooling air. I still like a 6-10 call for the NYC area and if I had to guess, I'd say 4-6" before the mix/changeover, and 2-4" after. Backend snow situations do rarely work out for our areas, however with this setup it's not out of the question. Areas to the NW and an in general look to be in it for a good 12-18" of snow with no mixing or minimal mixing. I'm thinking the north trend is done and it will wobble around a bit and ultimately end up further south. However, nothing's out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How are surface temps like? Since this is a done deal in terms of getting all snow the question is the majority of the non-snow precip going to occur with the bl at freezing or below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You cant use WB maps here at all. It counts sleet at 10 to 1. You cant use them where you are sure it's all snow. NNJ. LHV. But for the city Monmouth county and long island ignore at all costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How are surface temps like? Since this is a done deal in terms of getting all snow the question is the majority of the non-snow precip going to occur with the bl at freezing or below? Surface temps look freezing or below north of Monmouth County. Winds staying NE=no way surface warmth makes it past there. The issue is tons of sleet mixing in when the 850 low goes over or north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 How are surface temps like? Since this is a done deal in terms of getting all snow the question is the majority of the non-snow precip going to occur with the bl at freezing or below? How are surface temps like? Since this is a done deal in terms of getting all snow the question is the majority of the non-snow precip going to occur with the bl at freezing or below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 You can use WB maps here at all. It counts sleet at 10 to 1. You cant use them where you are sure it's all snow. NNJ. LHV. But for the city Monmouth county and long island ignore at all costs. Agreed, next time I'll post total qpf map instead and people can calculate their own ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 JM I think youll be happy not to be in LB for this one. It screams last Febraury to me. Where the NS sees mostly snow and a foot. The SS sees 3-6" with 3 being in lb and 6 north of the southern state. Ill go with 4 here at my house. Ill be ion the city for it anyway. I think the far upper west side does well and is good for 12". One thing is certain. We are going to have one hell of a snow pack out here. The snow will absorb the rain and then freeze solid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Agreed, next time I'll post total qpf map instead and people can calculate their own ratios You guys can use them. You are all snow. But the city on south has sleet and it will look more robust than it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Surface temps look freezing or below north of Monmouth County. Winds staying NE=no way surface warmth makes it past there. The issue is tons of sleet mixing in when the 850 low goes over or north of NYC. Thanks. If thats true roads will be horrible for the monday commute, so OEM will have to make some tough decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Navgem is really amped too, looks to fall in line with GGEM, bring the low right over Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 JM I think youll be happy not to be in LB for this one. It screams last Febraury to me. Where the NS sees mostly snow and a foot. The SS sees 3-6" with 3 being in lb and 6 north of the southern state. Ill go with 4 here at my house. Ill be ion the city for it anyway. I think the far upper west side does well and is good for 12". One thing is certain. We are going to have one hell of a snow pack out here. The snow will absorb the rain and then freeze solid! I don't mind sleet when there's already a snowpack. When it all freezes it'll be cement. That happened here last February after we had the rain/sleet on Feb 13th. And there won't be a coastal front coming through surging temps to 40+ like we had in 2011 (unless it goes berserk like the GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Given entire 12z suite would think middlesex county would be in WSW later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 JM I think youll be happy not to be in LB for this one. It screams last Febraury to me. Where the NS sees mostly snow and a foot. The SS sees 3-6" with 3 being in lb and 6 north of the southern state. Ill go with 4 here at my house. Ill be ion the city for it anyway. I think the far upper west side does well and is good for 12". One thing is certain. We are going to have one hell of a snow pack out here. The snow will absorb the rain and then freeze solid! The extreme south shore was shafted In that Feb storm last year. A few miles inland was crushed. This is such a close call. 20 miles makes all the difference. I'm not ready to make any definitive statements yet. I like a snow, sleet back to a brief period of snow scenario. Accumulations are a tough call for the area. I don't think we see under 4" though. We could see significanly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm betting most will be in winter storm warnings by tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How are surface temps like? Since this is a done deal in terms of getting all snow the question is the majority of the non-snow precip going to occur with the bl at freezing or below? How are surface temps like? Since this is a done deal in terms of getting all snow the question is the majority of the non-snow precip going to occur with the bl at freezing or below? 19 in west Newark. 50's around Toms River, impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Navgem is really amped too, looks to fall in line with GGEM, bring the low right over Long Island When you're this close in and the NavGEM is more amped it usually means any amped models are wrong, beyond 72-96 hours its a different story. I had not looked at it the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is an odd case of the GFS being more amped at 500 mb than the Euro. So the GFS pumps the ridge along the East Coast more and is warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 When you're this close in and the NavGEM is more amped it usually means any amped models are wrong, beyond 72-96 hours its a different story. I had not looked at it the last couple of days. But it's hard to ignore every model.. I mean we have no other guidance at this point that's not amped up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm betting most will be in winter storm warnings by tonight I see the NWS putting the city and Northern Nassau and NE suffolk in WSW and south and east of there advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 When you're this close in and the NavGEM is more amped it usually means any amped models are wrong, beyond 72-96 hours its a different story. I had not looked at it the last couple of days.I'll be honest, I'm still expecting a correct South. Perhaps the heights rise enough in front to flood us with warmer air, but I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NMM coming in more amped also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 One thing this forum I think needs help with, is sometimes you guys overreact how bad it actually is, when in reality it isnt even that bad of a run. Especially where I live, I consider myself NYC suburbs (20 miles west of NYC), and sometimes the run isn't even that bad, but all I hear is its north again or blah blah blah. When we barely even get above 32 here. I remember the storm last week saturday I believe. Mostly everyone was like I'm not even sure if its going to snow, or just start as ice. Newark ended up with 6", CPK ended up with like 2.5" So please refrain from NYC Suburbs, it confuses me when its a good run for NENJ, (not including immediate suburbs) and all i hear is what a winter. we cant buy a simple all snow storm. Just some advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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